Friday, September 07, 2018

Pounding Idlib Into Oblivion

"We have absolutely advised them to stay out of At Tanf. We are postured to respond."
"The United States does not seek to fight the government of Syria or any groups that may be providing it support."
" However, if attacked, the United States will not hesitate to use necessary and proportionate force to defend US, coalition or partner forces."
U.S. defense official 

"The government plan was to give the maximum possible chance for a reconciliation, but unfortunately there was no progress in this regard."
"The radicals are in control in Idlib."
"This looks like preliminary bombardment before a major land operation."
Syrian government official
Map of Idlib in Syria.
"[Safe passage would be essential in the event of an assault.] A staggering 700,000 people could be displaced overnight. Already people are on the move again out of fear of what might come next, and are struggling to find shelter."
"As NRC witnessed in eastern Ghouta or Aleppo, routes to safety came too little too late for thousands of civilians trapped in the violence. The only way to truly ensure the safety of civilians in Idlib is to prevent an outbreak in violence altogether."
"We must see the world’s top powers commit to peaceful negotiations and agreements which protect civilians and grant them safety."
The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC)
A screenshot of the White Helmets' Twitter account shows what the organization describes as the aftermath of an airstrike on a town in the countryside of Idlib, September 4, 2018.
A screenshot of the White Helmets' Twitter account shows what the organization describes as the aftermath of an airstrike on a town in the countryside of Idlib, September 4, 2018.Screenshot / @SyriaCivilDef / Twitter
One of the world's "top powers" is bombing the hell out of Idlib city, evidently unconcerned that the top "top power" has issued a warning that Russian jets doing just that are in the process of helping Syria to make yet another "grave mistake". Syria doesn't seem to care. Moscow seems less than concerned that it is once again, placing the lives of Syrian civilians into a destructive dust-heap of cadavers. Damascus may have pointed out to Moscow that Washington is protecting some areas the Syrian regime means to recapture, shielding U.S. allies.

To which Moscow has responded by warning Washington it should haul its troops out of harm's way. Washington's response was that there is no intention of withdrawing its troops which will, if they come under fire, return fire, both for self-protection and that of its allies, aiding in removing what remains (in the thousands) of ISIL fighters. No fewer than 24 locations in the northwester province of Idlib were struck, interpreted as the opening salvo of an offensive.

Even Israeli jets visited Syria, striking Iranian military positions in Hama and Tartus provinces two days ago. On many fronts, this long-lasting, wide-ranging war in what was once a well developed country has become complex with a myriad of opposing actors, from Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, United States, Israel, and Turkey, involving Sunnis, Shias, Kurds and foreign Islamists all clamouring for their aspirations and rights to be recognized in a country whose infrastructure has been bombed, its heritage smashed, its citizenry displaced, dismembered, murdered en masse.

The Syrian government forces that have massed around Idlib are prepared for an assault to rout the last opposition stronghold remaining in the country. President Trump's warning against Russian and Iranians "recklessly" attacking Idlib hasn't made much of a dent in their plans though he elaborated that "a grave humanitarian mistake" was on the horizon where hundreds of thousands of lives could be lost. But as long as chemical weapons are refrained from use, it's unlikely there will be any U.S. intervention; Russia's presence mitigates against anything so foolish.

Millions of Syrians live in Idlib province, half of them displaced from other areas in Syria, where they moved in panic to avoid being bombed elsewhere, now finding themselves targets once again. When, not if the offensive strikes it is expected to be one of the deadliest outcomes in the seven-year war. According to UN officials up to 800,00 people may be displaced, those in urgent need of aid dramatically increasing.

Any citizens, including Sunni Syrian rebels who baulk at surrendering to government troops with the full knowledge of what they will mean to their chances of emerging alive, have nowhere left to migrate to, for survival much less safety.
Members of Russian and Syrian forces stand guard near posters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the Abu Duhur crossing on the eastern edge of Idlib province on August 20, 2018.
George Ourfalian/AFP/Getty Images

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