Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Canada's Far Northern Reaches in the Arctic : Russia's Challenge

The midnight sun shines on the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Louis S. St-Laurent near Resolute Bay, Nunavut, last year. The Louis is on its annual voyage through Canada's Arctic that includes patrols through the Northwest Passage. Canada's sovereignty over the Arctic is coming into question, which makes ships such as this one of vital strategic importance. ((Jonathan Hayward/Canadian Press))
"It's clearly sending strategic messaging. This is the next step."
"There’s vigorous debate over whether their posture is offensive-oriented. The Russians insist this is purely defensive. It also offers possibilities for safe and secure shipping in the Northern Sea Route."
"They’re not doing anything wrong."
Whitney Lackenbauer, Arctic expert,  history professor, University of Waterloo

"It’s important for Canadians to be aware of their Arctic and the circumpolar Arctic and what’s going on in the North."
"That’s the kind of thinking I haven’t seen here, but that’s the thinking the Russians are using. They see the northern trade route as an excuse to put up military bases at the same time they’re working with the Chinese to open up trade routes for the export of their resources."
"Somewhere in the middle there is a better policy for northern Canada."
Ron Wallace, Canadian Global Affairs Institute, Calgary

"It [Arctic dominance] gives you presence."
"Whenever there’s issues that happen to occur elsewhere, we’ve already seen the behaviour of the Russians — they start doing overflights of other countries to bring pressure."
Rob Huebert, Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, University of Calgary

"If the globalized system fragments, we’re going to get a world of blocs. The blocs will have power to close international shipping channels."
"It’s a dreadful strategic mistake for Canada to give up our own sea route."
John Higginbotham, Centre for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo, Ontario
Russian, Chinese and Mongolian national flags set on armoured vehicles develop in the wind during a military exercises on training ground “Tsugol”, about 250 kilometres south-east of the city of Chita during the military exercises Vostok 2018 in Eastern Siberia, Russia, Thursday, Sept. 13, 2018. Sergei Grits/AP Photo
"Given the harsh environment and the high costs of Arctic operations, Canada believes that co-operation amongst Arctic nations is essential."
"[The Government of Canada is] firmly asserting [its presence in the North, protecting Canada's sovereign Arctic territory]."
Richard Walker, spokesman, Global Affairs Canada
Not so much that you might actually notice, however, under this current government, in stark contrast to the previous, Conservative-led government when then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper made visits to Canada's far north, and stated his intention to reinvigorate Canada's northern investments, and to authorize contracting for more strategic ships like ice-breakers, and to re-arm Canada's northern scouts comprised of Inuit men who proudly patrol the large, frozen area that is their home.

Izvestia reported last month a resumption of Russian fighter patrols to the North Pole, the first such patrols in 30 years, in addition to regular bomber flights up to the edge of U.S. and Canadian airspace. Russia may be suffering an economic downturn but it hasn't been ignoring Vladimir Putin's resolve to modernize and build new military weaponry reflecting the latest in technological advances. And nor, clearly, has he been ignoring the Russian Arctic where civilian and military capabilities in its north have been increased over the past decade.

Air bases dating to the Cold War have been rejuvenated and four new Arctic brigade combat teams, 14 new operational airfields, 15 deepwater ports, and 40 ice-breakers, (another 11 in developmental stages), have been noted by foreign policy observers. NORAD has reported up to twenty sightings of Russian bomber patrols leading to 19 intercepts annually.

A huge new gas field has been opened in the Yamai Peninsula on the central Russian coast and development of the Northern Sea Route representing Russia's equivalent to Canada's Northwest Passage, has been given to a central government agency for control. Cargo volume is rising from 7.4 million tonnes in 2016 to an anticipated 40 million tonnes by 2020. Russia has identified these developments as high priority.
The north magnetic pole is moving about 60km a year, away from the Canadian Arctic towards Siberia. Photograph: Jose Luis Stephens/Alamy Stock Photo/Alamy Stock Photo

If there is an expression in Russian analogous to "use it or lose it", it exemplifies Russia's commitment and activity levels in the Arctic. By comparison, Canada is pretty laid back; aware of the aura of competitiveness among Arctic nations, and of Russia's assertive actions, but aside from the careful responses of some Canadian academics watching these manoeuvres with huge interest, seeming to have little interest in a corresponding spurt of activity.

In the Northwest Territories a road has been completed running to the Arctic coast at Tuktoyaktuk while work to construct a port at Iqaluit in Nunavut is underway even as the first Arctic patrol vessel commissioned by the previous government has now been launched, and satellite surveillance has been enhanced with a naval refuelling station built on Baffin Island. By Canadian standards, a flurry of activity, by Russian standards, a lazy stroll akin to inertia.

There has been no Liberal government official Arctic policy tabled; clearly the Arctic isn't high on the list of this government's interests or priorities. Canada, according to the Global Affairs spokesman, co-operates with all Arctic Council members, Russia included, with a view to advancing shared interests including sustainable development and scientific research.

John Higginbotham of the Centre for International Governance Innovation has his own opinion on the matter, that Canada needs to pay more attention and commit to consolidating its holdings in the vital geography. Canada cannot depend too heavily on the current international order, in an ever changing world of liaisons and focuses. Which points to the need for assertively prosecuting Canada's interests in the Arctic, even if in a pale reflection of Russia's actions.

Commander Major Bergeron, right, scouts a route through rough ice on Eureka Sound hill during sovereignty patrol in Nunavut. The last time this area was visited was in 1905 by Admiral Peary. ((Dianne Whelan/Canadian Press))

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