"Norway now finds itself in the most serious security situation since 1945."
"[Svalbard
has for too long been seen by nations as a place where] everyone who
wants to can come up and do almost whatever they want."
"That's not the fact. This is Norwegian sovereign territory. So we're making that a bit clearer."
Eivind Vad Petersson State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway
The Svalbard Archipelago Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images
Following World War 1, Norway's
claim to the Arctic archipelago and its islands was officially
recognized. The Svalbard Treaty of 1920 banned the presence of activity
linked to the military while granting all other nations choosing to sign
on to the agreed-upon treaty access to hunting, fishing, mining and
land ownership. Over the years, close to fifty countries added their
names to the treaty which allowed them access.
Of
late, studies of the geology of Svalbard and the ocean floor
surrounding it have identified vast amounts of copper, zinc, cobalt,
lithium and rare earth elements buried in the ocean floor. These are
eagerly-sought-after minerals that power electric car battery
technologies and wind turbines. It was generally taken that the
Svalbard Treaty granted signatories rights to its surrounding seas and
seabed. Until January 2024 when Norway's governing party announced it
would pursue deep-sea mineral exploration in an enormous sweep of its
seabed.
The
remote, frigid island, viewed as hostile to human life on a prolonged
basis where minus 34 Celsius temperatures were not unknown, were
initially home to Norwegian miners and Russian fur trappers.
Longyearbyen, Svalbard's largest town, these days boasts candlelit
restaurants, hotels, daily flights to the mainland, and is home to 2,500
people from 50 countries. According to the town's mayor, a surge in
investment, official visits and strategic attention has recently focused
on Svalbard.
Recently,
the Energy Ministry of Norway publicly declared that Norway's goal in
exploiting the natural geology of the area had a defined purpose; the
goal of "profitable and sustainable" pursuit
of seabed minerals, including the seabed around Svalbard. As Norway
moves toward consolidating its sovereign rule over the island, its
attitude toward foreigners and civil rights has hardened. Foreigners
since 2021 were able to cast a vote in the political arena.
That
changed when authorities declared that voting in local elections would
be off limits to foreigners living on Svalbard if they had not lived on
Norway's mainland for the previous three years. "Should have been done a long time ago", said Mr. Petersson. The Svalbard Treaty guaranteed "equal access, not equal rights", he said, pointing out that in other countries foreigners are not given the right to vote.
Svalbard
is located about 800 kilometers from the North Pole, one of the only
places on Earth where instant connection is possible with polar-orbiting
satellites, leading to uninterrupted, clearer feeds and faster
downloading speeds; more advantageous than anywhere else on the planet.
In fact SvalSat, the world's largest satellite downloading station is
based on Svalbard.
Telecommunications domes of KSAT, Kongsberg Satellite Services, on a mountain near Longyearbyen.Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images
Fur
traders from the Pomor region in northwestern Russia arrived at
Svalbard some 300 years ago. The Soviets established several coal mining
towns in Svalbard a century ago and had signed the Treaty. Of the
mining towns, only one, Barentsburg, remains and still operates
minimally. Once there was a population of 1,000, now reduced to around
300. One Russian official claimed the archipelago should be renamed the "Pomor Islands".
A
powerful radar system monitoring space weather and the atmosphere is at
the service of Chinese scientists. Data gathered from this equipment
have been shared with the China Research Institute of Radiowave
Propagation, a Chinese defense organization. Members of the U.S. House
Select Commission on the Chinese Communist Party are convinced China is
performing military research on Svalbard in defiance of the Treaty
proscription.
Outside the Yellow River Station where the Chinese scientists live a pair of granite lions stands guard.
Norway
ordered the Chinese to remove the lions, each of which weighs 900
kilograms, installed 20 years ago when the Chinese government agents
arrived on Svalbard. For the first time last summer, the archipelago's
sole university, the University Center, operated by the Norwegian
government, barred entry to Chinese students, identified by Norwegian
intelligence agencies as a potential security risk.
Criticisms of China's activities represent "nothing but distortion of facts and groundless speculation",
according to officials at the the Chinese Embassy in Norway. As for the
lions standing guard, they continue to remain where they were placed
two decades earlier.
"While the Russian geopolitical threat remains paramount, Chinese
encroachments facilitated by an isolated Russia may complicate the
Arctic security landscape in the longer term. The coast guard agencies
of Russia and China recently signed a cooperation agreement on
strengthening maritime law enforcement to great fanfare in Murmansk, a
city on Russia’s western flank close to Norway."
"Moreover, when all other
Arctic coast guard agencies suspended their participation in the Arctic
Coast Guard Forum, Russia invited China to join the forum—clear
signs of China’s expanding presence in the High North."
"As Iris A.
Ferguson, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for arctic and
global resilience, has put it, Chinese efforts aim “to normalize its
presence and pursue a larger role in shaping Arctic regional governance
and security affairs.”"
Center for Strategic and International Studies
The world’s northernmost Lenin statue looks over the abandoned Russian city of Pyramiden on Svalbard, summer 2018. Photo: Alina Bykova
"A great power play is shaping up between Russia, the United States and China, which is increasing the level of tension in the [Arctic] region." "It is likely that a part of China's buildup of knowledge about the Arctic and capacity to operate in the Arctic will take place in a collaboration between civilian and military actors." "This [Russia fortifying military capabilities] is an essential driving force for several other Arctic coastal states starting to strengthen their [own] regional military capabilities." Danish Defence Intelligence Service risk assessment report
"[Chinese research expeditions in the Arctic are not just a matter of science but serve a] dual purpose." "We have looked at Chinese research activities in the Arctic, and see that the Chinese military is showing an increasing interest in being part of that." Danish Defence Intelligence Service Chief Lars Findsen
US
secretary of state Mike Pompeo berated China for using its
growing Arctic research program as a Trojan horse for its military and
commercial goals.VCG/Getty Images
Russia and China appear to have reached a pact between them that neither will perhaps interfere with the plans of the other. China, halfway around the world, nowhere geographically close to the Arctic expressed its interest in having special observer status. While it is not an Arctic nation like Norway, Denmark, Russia, the United States and Canada, the allure of shipping through opening sea lanes as Arctic ice is beginning to recede, much less the Arctic's potential role as a military jumping-off spot, and the irresistibility of mining the vast stores of petrofuels and minerals on the ocean floor are all of great interest to this aspiring super power.
China has gone so far as to consider the Arctic as part of Beijing's far-reaching One Belt One Road initiative that would, in essence, bring the world itself closer to China. Having established a scientific base at Svalbard, Norway, it makes use of the front of scientific research as a way into the region, according to the Danish intelligence service report, warning of geopolitical rivalry in the Arctic intensifying over access to minerals. All the more so since U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pointed out Russia's aggressive military presence in the region
.
Chinese icebreaker Xuelong,
or Snow Dragon, arrives at the Zhongshan Station on Dec 2 on the
country's 30th expedition to the Antarctica that began on Nov 7.[ZHANG
JIANSONG / XINHUA]
China's infrastructure projects in any number of countries where it has made a presence throughout Africa, Asia and the Middle East, giving out generous loans and initiating badly needed infrastructure that will ultimately benefit China, while leaving those countries with monumental debts to be paid back ensuring they will remain as debtors in Beijing's orbit has allowed it to establish itself as a benefactor whom its beneficiaries remain economic captives to. Their initial pleasure at the building of bridges, roads, communications and greater trade prospects will eventually turn sour but in the interim it advances China's program.
Adding Arctic sea routes nicely rounds out Beijing's agenda for the foreseeable future. Denmark's priority on the other hand, is to ensure that the Arctic remains an area of international cooperation, that as issues surface political negotiations between those nations with Arctic territory can be depended upon. As Denmark's intelligence points out that goal, of regional cooperation in the greater interests of all concerned equally, is imperilled by the very reality of Russia's new military bases, and the emphasis by both Russia and China on building their expeditionary and military fleets of icebreakers and nuclear-powered battle ships which can only lead to confrontation.
The Russian race to the Arctic relies heavily on Chinese investment, and
fast-track shipping via the Northern Sea Route is especially attractive
to Beijing. Today, China is Moscow's biggest client for Northern Sea
Route shipments: Russia sent liquified natural gas tankers to China via
Arctic waters for the first time in July 2018, and lent Russian
icebreakers to escort a convoy of Chinese cargo vessels to Europe that
fall CNN
The Danish conclusion that "This is an essential driving force for several other Arctic coastal states starting to strengthen their regional military capabilities", expresses the reality that is all too obvious but which it appears that other Arctic nations with the exception of the U.S. prefer not to notice, since to do so would be to acknowledge their own need to meet this not-too-distant challenge with infrastructure and a commitment to defending their Arctic sovereignty with defences of their own military upgrades.
Russian Arctic Trefoil base: Special design features were used to cope with the severe weather Getty Images
"[The Arctic is a region of] concentration of practically all aspects of national security -- military, political, economic, technological, environment and that of resources." "[Shipping through the Northern Sea Route would increase from 20 million metric tonnes today to 80 million tonnes by 2035; this is] a realistic, well-calculated and concrete task ahead for Russia." "[The new National Security Strategy explicitly aims to increase the] competitiveness and international prestige of the Russian Federation [in the Arctic]." Russian President Vladimir Putin
People attend the float-out ceremony of the nuclear-powered icebreaker
Ural at the Baltic Shipyard in St. Petersburg, Russia, (Anton Vaganov/Reuters)
"Global warming in recent years has accelerated the melting of ice and snow [posing a security threat to China and the world." "[China is] a near Arctic State, an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs." "[China is prepared to include Arctic states in its] Belt and Road Initiative." White paper on China's Arctic Policy
The Chinese icebreaking research vessel Xue Long – or Ice Dragon – has
played a key part in Chinese capacity building in the Arctic since the
1990s. Photo: dracophylla
"All that's been stated before [Issues of health, sustainable development and sovereignty over the Northwest Passage]." "What's not being stated here is any idea of how the [Canadian] government is going to address these well-known issues." Rob Huebert, Arctic specialist, University of Calgary
President Putin's commitment to the Arctic is obvious; by 2035 Russia plans to add four nuclear icebreakers to its Arctic fleet for a total of 13 heavy icebreakers, nine nuclear. In the Arctic, Russia is a superpower, and has been since the days of the czars. Russia has its eye on the untold wealth of natural resources, both mineral and fossil fuels known to lie on and under the seabed, and Russia is eager to take possession of its generous share of that wealth, not to mention ownership of an impressive, albeit contested share of its geography.
And then there is China which despite being nowhere near the Arctic Circle -- over 7,000 kilometres' distance in fact -- considers itself a shareholder, an 'important stakeholder' with goals to explore and deepen knowledge of the Arctic, including protection of the environment, making use of Arctic resources, and actively taking part in governance of the Arctic. China joined the Arctic Council as an 'observer' in 2013, innocent enough at the time, but with long-range future consequences.
In the Spitsbergen archipelago, China built the Arctic Yellow River Station and carried out eight scientific explorations by the end of 2017. Like Russia, China is expanding its Arctic fleet as well, planning on building a second heavy icebreaker to join its first which transited the Northwest Passage in 2017. Tenders have gone out for the construction of a nuclear icebreaker to bring China in line with elite Arctic capabilities.
And Canada? It has produced a document with input from twenty-five Indigenous organizations, the territories of Nunavut, the Northwest Territories and Yukon and the provinces of Manitoba, Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. A wide-ranging yet unfocused document addressing the issues of climate change, melting sea ice and great power interest in the Arctic; objectives that may or may not be realized, but likely not under the current government.
What is known and anticipated is that melting ice will permit for shipping use of the Arctic sea routes connecting China and Europe. An estimated 20 days' voyage would be sliced off the 48 days currently taken from Rotterdam to China via the Suez Canal. But the severe climate threat mandates that science must be focused along with technology to be developed and enhanced adaptation to counter the growth in greenhouse gases. Only possible through international co-operation.
"When relations are good, we talk about this [the American Lend-Lease program with the USSR following World War II]." "[And when American-Russian relations deteriorate], everybody goes silent." Vyachesiav V. Filippov, Russian historian
"Even today, I get the shivers whenever I hear the word Douglas." "I cried. I saw that
silver bird, lying on the ground, with its wings still spread." "I had the feeling his hands were still on the instruments. I had the feeling he was nearby, somewhere. He loved flying." Avelina M. Antsifyerova, 78, daughter of Airplane pilot Maksim D. Tyurikov
An American-made Douglas C-47 in Siberia, Russia, in 2007. The plane landed there in 1947.Credit Collection of Vyacheslav V. Filippov, via Russian Geographical SocietyIn 1947 Maksim D. Tyurikov piloted a C-47 passenger plane over Siberia, when he experienced problems and was forced to land the plane on the frozen tundra, and amazingly succeeded without much damage to the plane, let alone to its estimated 25 to 32 passengers and crew. The plane was almost intact though no longer flight-worthy, and the people aboard unharmed. Unfortunately, they were marooned in a frozen, isolated geography with the closest settlement over 160 kilometers' distance away.
Pilot Tyurikov was determined that it was his duty and his alone to notify authorities of what had occurred and direct rescuers to the scene where all those that were aboard could be brought to safety. He set out on a mission to walk over the frozen landscape to reach civilization on a 150 kilometer trip. While attempting to summon help, he died in the effort. Before he left on his ill-fated trip he wrote in pencil on the inner fuselage of his intention to save the passengers.
By The New York Times
Of those aboard, six passengers and two of the crew members died when they too attempted to walk their way out of their impossible frozen dilemma. The remaining passengers huddled together in the plane, managing to survive for 19 days until help arrived. They carefully and collectively shared the emergency rations on board the plane. Those rations were comprised primarily of American-produced tins of Spam.
And while the survivors were taken out to safety, nothing was done with the downed plane. It sat there on the frozen tundra for fully seven decades. It was seen on occasion in its remote location by the occasional reindeer herder. And then, recalling its presence as the very last of the 704 Douglas transport planes produced in the United States and sent to Russia under the Lend-Lease program, the twin-engine C-47 is set to become an exhibit.
It is scheduled to be retrieved and restored to its former condition when it was a working transport plane and a symbol of good relations between the U.S.S.R. and the United States of America. The U.S.-produced Douglas airplanes, all 705 of them that were sent by the U.S. to Russia were well used. Some were shot down or crashed, while others were eventually returned to the U.S. post-war, and others yet remained in use for years in the Soviet Union.
Now the Russian Geographical Society is set to sponsor the retrieval and restoration of that plane left on the Arctic tundra so that it can be a showpiece exhibit in a museum in Krasnoyarsk, a city in Siberia some 2,200 kilometers from its crash site, a token of the American program that had millions of tons of aid -- trucks, jeeps, motorcycles, planes, tanks, fuel and food -- sent to the Soviet Union and other allies by the administration in wartime Washington.
The Douglas plane during a 2016 expedition to retrieve it. CreditCollection of Vyacheslav V. Filippov, via Russian Geographical Society
"They aren't living things. But I do tend to anthropomorphize them." "They have a unique character; they surprise you how they change. They develop personalities." Shawn Marshall, glaciologist, University of Calgary
"What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic." Judah Cohen, MIT climatologist
After recent reports about the demise of the ice fields, researchers
hope the public will better understand the rapid pace of climate change.
Photograph: RE Johnson / Design Pics/Getty Images/First Light
Near the Matterhorn in Zermatt, Switzerland the Gormer glacier has been shrinking at a rapid pace. In 2007 that pace was recorded at 290 metres of recession. The glacier has since then continued its way up the mountain by approximately 30 metres annually, and as it does it reveals what lies beneath. A 40-year-old camera, a mitten, a human bone, the remains of two hikers and those of a father and son who had gone missing in 1967 were revealed in 2009.
Vanished hikers in the surrounding Alps and skiers, a Second World War bomber plane, Roman shoe nails, and countless pieces of mountaineering equipment have also been revealed as glaciers have surrendered their presence to melt. Bronze age artefacts (remember Oetzi, the Bronze Age mummified man who made headlines when he was discovered in the Italian Alps...?).
And then there is Canada where a recent report from Environment and Climate Change Canada revealed that the country's warming is twice the rate of the rest of the world (1.7C as opposed to 0.8C within the last 70 years). Greenland and Antarctica have more ice than Canada, but Canada's share of the world's glaciers is substantial, at number three.
On northern Ellesmere Island, warming land and sea temperatures have
caused glacier melt to accelerate, according to new research. (Photo:
Luke Copland)
Between 2004 and 2015, according to a 2017 study out of University of California at Irving, the melt rate of glaciers on Queen Elizabeth Islands in Canada rose by a whopping 900 percent. Those glaciers are melting over 30 billion tons of ice into water on an annual basis. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in 2018 released the Arctic Report Card showing 95 percent of the oldest Arctic ice has vanished.
In the Canadian Rockies only three glaciers have been measured with the use of radar; the Athabasca, Peyto and Haig glaciers, the Athabasca being the largest in the Columbia icefield straddling the Great Divide at the northern end of Banff National Park. The most visited glacier in North America, the Athabasca glacier is in danger of wholly disappearing within two generations. The Peyto will be next.
An icefield in the Saint Elias Mountains, where melting is at its most rapid. (HO-Zac Robinson/The Canadian Press)
Rocky Mountain glaciers will lose 80 to 90 percent of their volume by the year 2100, according to glaciologist Shawn Marshall, formerly Canadian Research Chair in Climate Change.
In West Antarctica, the Thwaites Glacier, the size of Florida, has become critically unstable to the point where if it melts it could result in a rise in sea level of over a metre on its own, according to climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer at Princeton. It could trigger instability to the extent that a chain reaction could ensue raising sea levels by three metres, engulfing Manila and Mumbai.
Glaciers' melt rate accelerates as they lose mass, becoming more vulnerable and with rising temperatures and more rain in place of snow, the melting process reveals rocky detritus, dark enough to attract the heat of the sun so that the rate of melt increases.
The
Wedgemont Glacier, north of Whistler, B.C. Of the estimated 200,000
square kilometres of Canadian glaciers, one quarter is found in the west
of the country, with the remainder in the Arctic. (Steve Hamilton)
"Our task is to monitor the airspace and the northern sea route." "We have all we need for our service and comfortable living [in Severny Klever military base, Kotelny Island, Siberia]." Lt.Col. Vladimir Pasechnik, base commander
"In Russia, the Northern sea route has been described as a bonanza with lots of potential of economic development." "And that's why there is a need for military capacity in the area." "It is likely meant as defensive, but it is being interpreted by the West as offensive." Flemming Splidshoel Hansen, Danish Institute for International Studies
"Norway is a small country, whose next-door neighbour is mighty Russia, which has placed the bulk of its military capacity right next to them." "Norway is extraordinarily worried." Kristian Soeby Kristensen, researcher, Copenhagen University, Denmark
The Mir-I is one of two Russian craft that dived to the Arctic floor
Russia symbolically staked its claim to billions of dollars worth of oil
and gas reserves in the Arctic Ocean today when two mini submarines
reached the seabed more than two and a half miles beneath the North
Pole.
In a record-breaking dive, the two craft planted a one metre-high
titanium Russian flag on the underwater Lomonosov ridge, which Moscow
claims is directly connected to its continental shelf. However, the dangerous mission prompted ridicule and scepticism among
other contenders for the Arctic's energy wealth, with Canada comparing
it to a 15th century colonial land grab. Descending to 4,300 metres, the mini-subs Mir-1 and Mir-2 collected
water and sediment samples from the seabed. Russian scientists hope the
samples will shore up their claim that the ridge is an integral part of Russia.
Advertisement
If
Russia's claim is approved by the UN, the country could gain rights
over supplies of hydrocarbons that some experts put at 10bn tonnes. The
ice cap is melting, making exploration and drilling for oil and gas
easier. The Guardian, August 2007
Alexander Zemlianichenko
/
APRenowned Russian polar scientist Artur Chilingarov holds a photo of the
Russian flag on the ocean floor upon his arrival at Moscow's Vnukovo
airport on Tuesday (2007).
The Arctic has many contestants for jurisdiction by nations bordering that frozen sea and whose claims contest Russia's, including the United States, Canada, Denmark and Norway. And then there is China which has no physical presence in the Arctic but would like to and claims observer status. The vast mineral and energy resources stored under the ocean and thought to be technologically accessible for exploitation has all Arctic nations interested in claiming ownership of 'their' portions of the Arctic. And some, like Russia, are particularly anxious and prepared to be aggressively engaged in pursuing their claims.
Russia has invested quite a bit of funding in its Arctic claims of sovereignty, upgrading and modernizing old Soviet-era infrastructure, and installing permanent military missions on its share of the Arctic where temperatures can and do plunge to minis 50C in the winter, with the short Arctic summers giving merely temporary relief while still freezing at night. Russia's new massive investment in its base between the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea on its Arctic shipping route includes permanently housing 250 military personnel.
There, with sprawling new facilities, the base maintains sufficient supplies for over a year for fully assured autonomy. The sprawling facilities can all be accessed without anyone having to venture into the icy outdoors. The military personnel are responsible for the maintenance of air and sea surveillance at the facilities, along with coastal defences such as anti-ship missiles. This is serious business for Russia; any contesting of their claims, any sign of hostile approaches will be both monitored and responded to.
For Russia, in its view of Arctic security and economic competition, the region represents a vital priority in foreign policy. No other Arctic country, including the United States has undertaken a clear presence dominating the vast area, and a bristling military menace presence as has Russia. Its intentions were clear from the time in 2007 it staged a mock but serious claim of the Arctic seabed by planting a Russian flag and celebrating its publicity coup.
In 2015 Russia submitted a revised bid claiming vast territories in the Arctic, sending it to the United Nations when it claimed 1.2 million square kilometres of the Lomontov sea shelf, all of which it claims is attached to the Russian mainland, some of which Canada disputes. Russia's claim extends over 650 kilometres from its shore. To support its claim, it has spent massively on modernizing Soviet era installations, upgrades that no other Arctic nation has committed to.
By comparison, Canada's lackadaisical efforts reflect a total lack of commitment belying the government's claims of the vital importance of its Arctic sovereignty. The amount of investment that Canada has committed to shrinks to minuscule proportions in comparison with Russia's. A road completed to the Arctic coast at Tuktoyaktuk in the Northwest Territories and work embarked upon for a port at Iqaluit in Nunavut, the extent of Canada's commitment to this date, along with the first Arctic patrol vessel being launched and satellite surveillance enhanced with a naval refueling station on Baffin Island.
Russia, on the other hand, has launched a gigantic effort since 2014 to rebuild the Kotelny Island military outpost, neglected after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Where the Russian Defence Ministry recently showed off Bastion anti-ship missile launchers positioned near the shore and Pantsyr-Si air defence systems during a drill firing shots at a practice target. A large radar dome sits on a hill overlooking the coast, stressing the main mission of monitoring the strategic area from the base.
Full radar coverage of Russia's 22,600-kilometre Arctic frontier has been achieved through the expanded infrastructure, where fighter jets can be deployed to protect Russia's Alaska airspace. And its permanently deployed military can access new base features such as spacious living quarters, a gym, and a sauna.
1) North Pole: Russia leaves its flag on the seabed, 4,000m (13,100ft) beneath the surface, as part of its claims for oil and gas reserves 2) Lomonosov Ridge: Russia argues that this underwater feature is an extension of its continental territory and is looking for evidence 3) 200-nautical mile (370km) line: Shows how far countries' agreed economic area extends beyond their coastline. Often set from outlying islands 4) Russian-claimed territory: The bid to claim a vast area is being closely watched by other countries. Some could follow suit
Canada's Far Northern Reaches in the Arctic : Russia's Challenge
The
midnight sun shines on the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Louis S.
St-Laurent near Resolute Bay, Nunavut, last year. The Louis is on its
annual voyage through Canada's Arctic that includes patrols through the
Northwest Passage. Canada's sovereignty over the Arctic is coming into
question, which makes ships such as this one of vital strategic
importance. ((Jonathan Hayward/Canadian Press))
"It's clearly sending strategic messaging. This is the next step." "There’s vigorous debate over whether their posture is
offensive-oriented. The Russians insist this is
purely defensive. It also offers possibilities for safe and secure
shipping in the Northern Sea Route." "They’re not doing anything wrong." Whitney Lackenbauer, Arctic expert, history professor, University of Waterloo
"It’s important for Canadians to be aware of their Arctic and the circumpolar Arctic and what’s going on in the North." "That’s the kind of thinking I haven’t seen here, but that’s the
thinking the Russians are using. They see the northern trade
route as an excuse to put up military bases at the same time they’re
working with the Chinese to open up trade routes for the export of their
resources." "Somewhere in the middle there is a better policy for northern Canada." Ron Wallace, Canadian Global Affairs Institute, Calgary
"It [Arctic dominance] gives you presence." "Whenever there’s issues that happen
to occur elsewhere, we’ve already seen the behaviour of the Russians —
they start doing overflights of other countries to bring pressure." Rob Huebert, Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, University of Calgary
"If the globalized system fragments, we’re going to get a world of
blocs. The blocs will have power to close international shipping
channels." "It’s a dreadful strategic mistake for Canada to give up our own sea route." John Higginbotham, Centre for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo, Ontario
Russian, Chinese and Mongolian national flags
set on armoured vehicles develop in the wind during a military exercises
on training ground “Tsugol”, about 250 kilometres south-east of the
city of Chita during the military exercises Vostok 2018 in Eastern
Siberia, Russia, Thursday, Sept. 13, 2018.Sergei Grits/AP Photo
"Given the harsh environment and the high costs of Arctic operations, Canada believes that co-operation amongst Arctic nations is essential." "[The Government of Canada is] firmly asserting [its presence in the North, protecting Canada's sovereign Arctic territory]." Richard Walker, spokesman, Global Affairs Canada
Not so much that you might actually notice, however, under this current government, in stark contrast to the previous, Conservative-led government when then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper made visits to Canada's far north, and stated his intention to reinvigorate Canada's northern investments, and to authorize contracting for more strategic ships like ice-breakers, and to re-arm Canada's northern scouts comprised of Inuit men who proudly patrol the large, frozen area that is their home.
Izvestia reported last month a resumption of Russian fighter patrols to the North Pole, the first such patrols in 30 years, in addition to regular bomber flights up to the edge of U.S. and Canadian airspace. Russia may be suffering an economic downturn but it hasn't been ignoring Vladimir Putin's resolve to modernize and build new military weaponry reflecting the latest in technological advances. And nor, clearly, has he been ignoring the Russian Arctic where civilian and military capabilities in its north have been increased over the past decade.
Air bases dating to the Cold War have been rejuvenated and four new Arctic brigade combat teams, 14 new operational airfields, 15 deepwater ports, and 40 ice-breakers, (another 11 in developmental stages), have been noted by foreign policy observers. NORAD has reported up to twenty sightings of Russian bomber patrols leading to 19 intercepts annually.
A huge new gas field has been opened in the Yamai Peninsula on the central Russian coast and development of the Northern Sea Route representing Russia's equivalent to Canada's Northwest Passage, has been given to a central government agency for control. Cargo volume is rising from 7.4 million tonnes in 2016 to an anticipated 40 million tonnes by 2020. Russia has identified these developments as high priority.
The north magnetic pole is moving about 60km a year, away from the Canadian Arctic towards Siberia.
Photograph: Jose Luis Stephens/Alamy Stock Photo/Alamy Stock Photo
If there is an expression in Russian analogous to "use it or lose it", it exemplifies Russia's commitment and activity levels in the Arctic. By comparison, Canada is pretty laid back; aware of the aura of competitiveness among Arctic nations, and of Russia's assertive actions, but aside from the careful responses of some Canadian academics watching these manoeuvres with huge interest, seeming to have little interest in a corresponding spurt of activity.
In the Northwest Territories a road has been completed running to the Arctic coast at Tuktoyaktuk while work to construct a port at Iqaluit in Nunavut is underway even as the first Arctic patrol vessel commissioned by the previous government has now been launched, and satellite surveillance has been enhanced with a naval refuelling station built on Baffin Island. By Canadian standards, a flurry of activity, by Russian standards, a lazy stroll akin to inertia.
There has been no Liberal government official Arctic policy tabled; clearly the Arctic isn't high on the list of this government's interests or priorities. Canada, according to the Global Affairs spokesman, co-operates with all Arctic Council members, Russia included, with a view to advancing shared interests including sustainable development and scientific research.
John Higginbotham of the Centre for International Governance Innovation has his own opinion on the matter, that Canada needs to pay more attention and commit to consolidating its holdings in the vital geography. Canada cannot depend too heavily on the current international order, in an ever changing world of liaisons and focuses. Which points to the need for assertively prosecuting Canada's interests in the Arctic, even if in a pale reflection of Russia's actions.
Commander
Major Bergeron, right, scouts a route through rough ice on Eureka Sound
hill during sovereignty patrol in Nunavut. The last time this area was
visited was in 1905 by Admiral Peary. ((Dianne Whelan/Canadian Press))
U.S. Energy Interests and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coastal Plain
"Canada is concerned about the potential transboundary impacts of oil and gas exploration and development planned for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coastal Plain." "Canada is particularly concerned that oil and gas exploration and development will negatively affect the long-term reproductive success of the Porcupine caribou herd." Environment Canada to Alaska office, U.S. Bureau of Land Management
"Much of the wildlife that inhabits the ... refuge is shared with Canada. The conservation of these transboundary shared resources is very important to Indigenous groups." "Yukon and Northwest Territories letter to the U.S.
"Potential impacts, particularly those relating to changes in calving distribution and calf survival, are expected to be more intense for the [Porcupine] herd because of their lack of previous exposure to oilfield development." "These Canadian communities would be among the most likely to experience potential indirect impacts." U.S. Bureau of Land Management, Alaska office, draft plan
In
this undated file photo provided by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
caribou from the Porcupine Caribou Herd migrate onto the coastal plain
of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeast Alaska. (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Associated Press)
"He does keep me informed [Alaska counterpart]. He has a different mandate. I'm not sure it's the same relationship." "We're [Canada] not in the inner circle. We're participating as members of the public." Craig Machtans, Canadian Wildlife Service
Mr. Machtans represents Canada on an international committee tasked with the management of the Porcupine herd, mentioning his good relationship with his Alaskan counterpart. It's a new relationship in the sense that where at an earlier period the U.S. representative came from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the member at the present time comes from the U.S. Department of the Interior.
As for the Porcupine herd in question, it represents one of the few remaining caribou populations in the North. What it also represents is a critical natural resource for regional Indigenous populations. The welfare of the caribou lies in coverage within one of four international agreements -- two of which cover polar bears and one relating to migratory birds -- all of which commit the United States to the area's preservation. Three diplomatic notes have been exchanged over the issue between Canada and the U.S.
Canada's concern is the content of the environmental study undertaken by the United States in its plans to open the large cross-border caribou herd to energy drilling irrespective of protection guaranteed under international agreements; most particularly the plan to open the calving grounds, threatening the stability of the herd through disruption and interference that international agreements guarantee will not occur.
Wild
caribou roam the tundra in Nunavut on March 2009. Canada wants
assurances from the U.S. about the content of the environmental study.
The N.W.T. is asking that hearings be held in Canadian Indigenous
communities that depend on the herd. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
According to international law professor Michael Byers, Canada Research Chair in Global Politics and International Law at University of British Columbia, "There's an obligation to consult that isn't being implemented right now", with the impression that the U.S. may already have broken a clause in the agreement committing both countries to mutual consultation before any final decision on anything that might affect the herd's future.
Despite which the U.S. administration is proceeding to draft plans to study the environmental impact of selling exploration leases on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coastal Plain, potentially disrupting its rich ecology, home to the caribou. Adult caribou have been known to coexist with development; on the other hand, biological research has demonstrated they avoid any disturbances on their calving grounds.
Wild
caribou are seen near the Meadowbank Gold Mine in Nunavut on Monday,
March 23, 2009. The federal government, two territorial governments and
several First Nations in Canada are expressing concerns to the U.S. over
plans to open a massive cross-border caribou herd's calving ground to
energy drilling, despite international agreements to protect it. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press)
Canada is asking for assurances from its neighbour respecting the environmental study content while the North West Territories asks that hearings be held in Canadian Indigenous communities dependent on the herd. "We're not dealing with the same government we've been dealing with for the past 30 years", bemoaned Bobbi Jo Greenland Morgan, head of the Gwich'In Tribal council.
The public comment period extends to February 11 from its inception in December when the U.S. released its draft environmental impact study proposal for the lease sale. The Porcupine herd numbers 218,000 and growing, and the nearby Indigenous communities regard them as a source of food. "We probably have (caribou) at least once or twice a week (for meals)", explained Greenland Morgan. Canada's First Nations take roughly 85 percent of the annual harvest.
"This is a land grab, pure and simple, and the individuals responsible
care little about impacts to wildlife or the damage they would be
inflicting on Alaska Native people whose subsistence depends on the
Arctic Refuge." Adam Kolton, executive director, Alaska Wilderness League
The coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. (Photo by U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service)
"I've
been asked if I'm worried about one of those Russian Arctic battalions
marching in here. I am worried -- but its because if they did that we
would have to launch the biggest search-and-rescue mission we've ever
done." "If
that was my sovereign territory [where about 12 million Russian
citizens live near or in its Arctic region] I'd do the same." "It's not about 'fixed bayonets' in the North." "Operation NUNALIVUT 2018 is more than winter warfare training. It is a
unique opportunity for deployed members to conduct sovereignty patrols,
ice diving activities and support the scientific community. Regular and
Reserve members of the Canadian Armed Forces will come together with
other government departments and agencies to cooperatively work on
multiple objectives during the coldest period of the year in the
Arctic." Brig.-Gen. Mike Nixon, commander, Joint Task Force North, Operation Nunalivut "We're learning a lot from the Rangers." "It's wild here. It's a big eye-opener to see the High Arctic." Major Jason Hudson, Princess Patricia Canadian Light Infantry
Canadian Forces Capt. Phillip Jones surveys
the military camp established at Intrepid Bay during Operation
Nunalivut. The camp was home for members of the 2nd Battalion Princess
Patriciaâs Canadian Light Infantry, the Arctic Response Company Group
from 38 Canadian Brigade Group and the 1st Canadian Ranger Patrol Group.David Pugliese/Postmedia
"The Arctic is unforgiving"
says Captain Shawn Claire of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light
Infantry, a unit among others taking part in this year's Operation
Nunalivut, a month-long annual exercise in Canada's Arctic. "She will claim lives and she will claim limbs",
he stated. The Arctic Response Company Group from 38 Canadian Brigade
Group and the 1st Canadian Ranger Patrol Group along with the PPCLI,
some 350 members of the Canadian military in all, are at Resolute Bay
conducting Arctic survival training, sovereignty patrols and scientific
research.
All are also testing their ability to survive in the Arctic.
Temperatures at Resolute Bay during the months of January and February
drop to around -65C to -70C at night, a temperature where it takes all
of two minutes for exposed skin to succumb to frostbite. Wearing goggles
and face masks the troops are equipped to withstand the extreme
temperatures. At the time of their deployment from the end of February
to March 22, the temperature hovered around -40C. Trucks must be kept
running full time to ensure they can be operative; it is too problematic
to start them in the frigid extremes.
Master Corp. Matthew Manik teaches soldiers how to build a snow wall to block the wind from their tent.David Pugliese/Postmedia
The month was spent conducting Arctic survival techniques among other
concerns, and gave navy personnel the opportunity to test their ability
to dive under ice. International interest in the far North has
accelerated in the last few years. China released an official Arctic
strategy, with plans to spend up to $1-trillion, in the development of
polar regions in their eagerness to develop new trade routes as well as
ports in the Arctic. It has no territorial claims, however, on the oil,
gas or mineral resources known to be present in the area.
Russia does have such claims. And it is busy expanding military bases in
their own northern territory to the extent of creating new battalions
to operate in the Arctic. Brig.Gen. Nixon is convinced the Russian
investments geared toward renewed infrastructure and bases as broad as
it seems, is in reality a fraction of what it spent during the Cold War.
An unsettled dispute around Russian claims to the Continental shelf
just happens to coincide with Canada's claims to much of that same area.
Researchers surveyed and mapped Canada's northern continental shelf
aboard CCGS Louis S. St-Laurent. (Natural Resources Canada)
Logistics represent another giant challenge to operating in the Arctic,
beyond survival, but inextricably linked to survival. Giant C-17 and
Boeing 737s along with C-130 Hercules aircraft are utilized in the
transport of equipment and food. The Arctic Training Centre in Resolute
Bay would be incapable of operating without its needs being filled where
each summer ships carry in 60,000 litres of fuel to operate military
snowmobiles and all-terrain vehicles.
Opened in 2013, the training centre represents a major hub for northern
military operations. Hugely and solely dependent on large diesel-powered
generators to provide electricity needed not only for the military
bases but for the 24 residential communities in Nunavut. And those
generators, needless to say, require hundreds of thousands of litres of
fuel. The deployment of the annual military mission takes eight months
in the planning stages.
Canada's northern population is a little over 200,000, most located in a
few population centres like Yellowknife and Whitehorse, the remainder
in small communities. Cambridge Bay has a population base of around
1,700 while Resolute Bay's population is roughly 200 people. North of
Resolute at Intrepid Bay, soldiers have established a small camp where
they conduct patrols out of and test the resupply system. Patrols are
carried out on snowmobiles to prevent an energetic buildup of
perspiration that can result in frostbite.
Military mechanics must deal with constant mechanical breakdowns of
machinery in this extreme climate. Reliance by regular troops on the
Canadian Rangers cannot be overstated. The Rangers are comprised largely
of Indigenous people, along with 4,000 reservists operating across the
Canadian North. The Rangers teach soldiers, among other skills of
northern survival techniques, how to build wind blocks from snow, and
best practices in maintaining snowmobiles running in extreme cold.
Also deployed are scientists from Defence Research and Development
Canada and from Natural Resources Canada, who are examining whether
batteries that can be recharged from a snowmobile could help make life
less complicated for troops for the provision of light, heat and
cooking. In a ten-person military tent at present, a Coleman gas stove
and lantern are kept on all night so that while it is -55C outside the
tent, heat from stove and lantern raise interior temperature in the tent
to around freezing.
The Canadian Rangers -- like Master Corporal Matthew Manik, 36, an Inuit
whose long traditions and lifestyle skills are so valuable to
understanding how to survive in the North -- are regarded as the
critical eyes and ears for the Canadian Forces.
Canadian troops operating in the far North
rely on Canadian Rangers, such as Master Corp. Matthew Manik, who taught
soldiers how to survive in the Arctic.David Pugliese/Postmedia
"There's a bit of temptation to thump chests over Arctic sovereignty. I would counsel the prime minister [of Canada] to simply let the process unfold in the normal way that the Russians seem to want it to." "[The North Pole sits in darkness for three months of the year in a large and hostile ocean and is the] last place anyone will drill for oil." Michael Byers, Arctic expert, international law professor, University of British Columbia
Jonathan Hayward / The Canadian Press Russia
has submitted its bid for vast territories in the Arctic to the United
Nations, the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday. Ice floes float in Baffin
Bay between Canada and Greenland above the Arctic circle on July 10,
2008.
Canada has indicated that it -- like Denmark which has previously declared its intention to seek United Nations recognition that its territory encompasses ownership of the North Pole -- intends to file a submission of its own, looking to enlarge its geographic scope in the Canadian claim to include the North Pole. The Canadian claim awaits additional survey work before the Canadian document is ready to be submitted to the United Nations.
A claim submitted initially in 2002, but returned by the United Nations for lack of scientific verification to the claim. This new bid is the original claim fortified by what Russia claims to be "ample scientific data collected in years of Arctic research [used to back the Russian claim]". Russia even pre-empted this latest claim by symbolically planting a titanium flag on the ocean floor in 2007, taking its competitors by surprise.
All five of the countries whose territories verge on the Arctic are formalizing their claims with allowed extensions, to the United Nations under the Convention on the Law of the Sea, which permits coastal nations an extension of their jurisdiction beyond 200 nautical miles with the proviso they must prove the claimed boundary represents a natural extension. Claims to territory are then judged based on an assessment of those countries' scientific and legal proofs.
The Arctic is believed to be the repository of up to a quarter of Earth's undiscovered oil and gas resources. Rivalry among the countries concerned, Canada, Russia, the United States, Denmark and Norway is understandably self-interested, everyone anxious to claim the maximum they can prove, to advantage themselves to as large an ownership as conceivable, and with the territory, all that might be available in the geology lying on and under the ocean floor.
Canada and five other countries are using maps of the seabed to stake their claim to Arctic territory. Photo Credit: CBC
Canada has for the past several years viewed Moscow's new assertiveness on the world stage with some dismay and misgivings. Made all the more concerning as it ramped up its self-confidence under President Vladimir Putin's yearning for a Soviet renaissance and the world-power status that accompanied it, by annexing Crimea and using proxy militia rebel groups in Ukraine to contest Ukraine for its eastern borders.
Making it fairly unlikely that diplomacy on this issue will figure large between adversaries, each claiming their borders extend to ownership of contested territory. Canada has never taken military steps to take possession of another state's sovereign rights and its government would have a severe degree of difficulty approaching the Arctic claims with polite diplomatic equanimity toward a country whose globally disturbing aggression has marked it an outlier.
"[The
Arctic is] a sphere of special interest [and Russia's goal is not only
to restore its influence there] but to make it even stronger." "We
need to take additional measures so as not to fall behind our partners,
to maintain Russian influence in the region and, maybe in some areas,
to be ahead of our partners." Russian President Vladimir Putin - Russian security council
"Unless we, the Arctic countries outside Russia, are there in equal strength, we realistically hand much of the Arctic to him." "Aircraft,
a training site and ships that can move in heavy ice ... You keep
building on all of that, operate from positions of strength and keep
making the investments necessary to do it." General Rick Hillier, former Canadian chief of defence staff
Russia
has been busy in the Arctic and it is serious about its influence and
presence in the Arctic Circle. It has several million people living
north of the Arctic Circle, and it has a history of Arctic exploration
to match that of Great Britain's and Norway's. In the process of
building up its military infrastructure including the refurbishing of
two bases 50 km from the Finnish border, it is busy creating a new
Northern Fleet intelligence unit.
To be staffed by
3,000 electronic warfare specialists, and involvement in developing
unmanned surveillance airships and building a 3,000-strong naval
aviation unit, Russia's determination to stand tall and unopposed in the
Arctic is compelling. Enough so to make its neighbours very nervous
indeed, given its propensity for aggressive, threatening action in
pursuit of dominance of an area in which it has disputes ongoing for
sovereignty rights.
The purpose of all that enhanced
security is to ensure the protection of oil and gas production
facilities from the potential attacks coming from "terrorists and other potential threats".
Potential threats can be assumed to be competition from Arctic
neighbours clamouring that they have rights, too, and "terrorists" can
be seen to be any who dispute Moscow's right to claim rights they insist
are incontrovertibly theirs.
Canada has more of a
low-tech approach to the situation, with sovereignty patrols from the
air and sea, and the first line of defence represented by the Canadian
Rangers, some five thousand mostly Inuit residents armed with Second
World War-vintage Lee-Enfield bolt-action rifles. They form part of
Canada's armed forces reserves, proudly doing their job to keep an eye
on any unusual activities or sightings, which they then convey to the
Canadian military.
Canada is constrained by economic
considerations from its more ambitiously-stated intentions to defend the
Arctic. The question is how Russia can manage to pay for all the
advanced scientific and military equipment and installations it intends
to place in the Arctic to defend and prosecute its claims. Russia's
financial situation despite its vast energy reserves has been faltering
lately. And there is the matter of its huge expenditure in Sochi to
proudly show the world its prestige quotient.
Maintaining
a build-up of military reserves on the border of Ukraine will cost it
greatly, not only in sanctions values, but in maintenance costs, that
will now extend to investment in Crimea. But that of course, is Moscow's
problem. Canada's problem is contending with pressure from NATO to sign
on to a co-ordinated response to Russia's aggressive militarization in
the Far North. And its resistance to doing just that, by failing to
agree on the inclusion of Arctic issues within NATO's purview.
The
events in Ukraine have not covered Russia in glory, but they have
diminished NATO's reputation simply because the situation, untenable as
it is, is one where NATO will not physically intrude. Ukraine is not a
member of NATO, but its neighbours, fearful of Moscow's further designs,
are. Norway wants to see NATO concern itself with Arctic issues as a
counterweight to Russia's indomitable threats of dominance.
Why
Prime Minister Stephen Harper continues to be resistant to the
inclusion of Arctic issues within NATO's agenda is not quite clear. A
September summit to take place in Cardiff, Wales will certainly put the
issue on the agenda. "The question is, can you trust Russia? Can any country say this shouldn't be on NATO's agenda?", asked one involved diplomat.
"No
western or NATO country is going to risk a confrontation that could
turn violent, and then escalate frighteningly over Ukraine -- viewed by
most as 'far away and corrupt as hell'", stated Mr.
Hillier of Russia's strategic priorities in enlarging its hegemonic
comfort zone. Vladimir Putin accurately judged the constraints placed
upon NATO with respect to confronting him on the Ukraine file.
But
NATO members involved in the Arctic would prefer a more proactive role
for NATO in the Arctic to deter Mr. Putin from attempting to pull off
anything similar to what he has managed to do in Ukraine, utterly
destabilizing the country, and threatening to incur even greater damage
should it move from caution to full-throttle defence against the
insurgency that the Kremlin has engineered to its advantage.
Canada,
according to General Hillier, has focused well on the Arctic with a
combination of fighter jets, satellite coverage, drones and underwater
sensors for advanced warning of any possible intrusion. But three
recommendations were advanced through the recently released Strategic
Outlook, by the CDA Institute: Canadian participation in a ballistic
missile system; creation of a maritime NORAD, and an adequate number of
ships to patrol, to enhance Arctic sovereignty.
Placing the Arctic issue on the NATO agenda might be seen properly as yet another priority.
This represents a general opinion site for its author. It also offers a space for the author to record her experiences and perceptions,both personal and public. This is rendered obvious by the content contained in the blog, but the space is here inviting me to write. And so I do.
