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COVID Impact on Food Prices, Distribution World-Wide

"Without the coronavirus, there would not be any problem whatsoever [with food availability and distribution]."
"People are getting worried about the supply chain."
Stefan Vogel, head, agricultural commodity research, Rabobank International

"Within countries there are going to be a lot of people who currently can't make money."
"If their incomes decline, the quality and quantity of the food is going to be declining, especially if this is matched by an increase in price."
Rami Zurayk, professor, food security, American University of Beirut

"But if restrictions on movement persist and we can't transport our produce to the market, there will likely be a shortage in the market that will affect prices."
Rikotu Isah, rice farmer, Kebbi, Nigeria

"All bets are off the table right now."
"Food security is going to be a big issue."
Neil Townsend, analyst, FarmLink, Winnipeg

"There is no guarantee if prices of staples will remain stable."
"It's better to buy a little more than the normal requirement, as we have children in the family to feed."
Lalatendu Rath, owner, small grocery shop, Odisha, India

Governments around the world are focused on keeping food prices stable, and inflation as far away as possible. Algeria, Turkey and Tunisia stepped up wheat purchases recently to secure supplies for their countries while Egypt and Saudi Arabia are focused on boosting their grain reserves. Over $600 million has been allocated for food sufficiency efforts and plans to buy 300,000 tons of rice in the Philippines.

Rice and wheat account for about a third of the world's calories and their prices have been rising rapidly. Not good news for countries relying on imports, finding themselves with an added financial burden, on top of the vast expenditures having to be allocated to health services in the battle against the novel coronavirus raging throughout the globe, with resulting lockdowns devastating nations' production output and crippling their economies.

In retail markets the cost of rice rose by over 30 percent in the last four days of March, in Nigeria. The price rise can be attributable to a number of issues, from local logistical choke points, panic buying, or a number of things in combination. The reality is that the world has more than enough food available to feed the global population. Distribution of the food is the identified problem, to get it where it is needed.

From one country to another on various continents measures to stifle the spread of the coronavirus has meant lockdowns of industry and society with resulting mass unemployment, poverty and the concerns over food availability. The depressed oil market would lend itself to lowering costs of transporting food, a ripple effect from plunging energy costs. Yet rice posted another monthly increase.

There is plentiful global grain inventories, still it has become more difficult to transport food staples where they aqre most needed. This, at a time when mass hysteria over the potential lack of availability has spurred people to panic-buy and to hoard, to enable them to remain locked as much as possible within their homes and away from possible infection by COVID-19 rampaging through communities with its unappeasable appetite.


Even while Russia, Kazakhstan and Vietnam move to secure domestic supply, restricting exports, export prices for rice from Thailand, the second-largest shipper on the globe, are at a six-year high. Canadian durum wheat is at the  highest demand and price in the past three years. Wholesale egg prices in the U.S. rose to a record while grocers increased their orders up to six times normal volumes. Beef too surged in price, later to ease back again.

It is in those countries most sensitive to food price rises, where the price of food takes a larger part of household budgets, placing the most vulnerable at further risk, where higher prices for food will present an enormous problem. While staple crop prices rise, prices of fruit and vegetables also rise in many parts of the world. Stay-at-home orders from state governments spark panic buying.

At the same time confused transportation links have translated to fewer foods on the market where grocery stores and inventories are depleting under pressure from shoppers. As yet, overall food prices remain below their peaks realized from 2008 and 2011 and the oil slump will keep costs down for farmers. Sub-Saharan Africa has not yet been hit widely by the virus. If/when it is affected, harvests may shrink, prices spike and people will go hungry.