Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Pathenogenic Canada Post Missives

"While mail may be contaminated, the risk of COVID-19 infection when handling paper mail or cardboard packages, including international mail, is extremely low. We know that the virus is most frequently transmitted when people are in close contact with others who are infected with the virus [either with or without symptoms]."   Public Health Agency of Canada

A man gets a throat swab for the COVID-19 test at a mobile coronavirus testing facility outside a commercial office building in Beijing on Jan. 17, 2022. Beijing's first reported case of the Omicron variant has prompted stepped-up measures in the nation's capital, just weeks before it hosts the Winter Olympic Games. (Associated Press)
 
"[I expect to see more finger-pointing if there are outbreaks during the Beijing Winter Olympics]."
"It is easy for China to blame Canada as there is no way to investigate the issue to say if it is true and if so, did the virus amount really constitute a threat?"
"As China has more and more difficulty with its zero-COVID policy, it will blame foreigners for its predicament."
Guy St-Jacques, former Canadian ambassador to China
Workers wearing face masks to help protect from the coronavirus set up a decoration for the Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, Sunday, Jan. 16, 2022. (Andy Wong/AP)
 
Deputy Director Pang Xinghuo of the Beijing Centre for Disease Prevention and Control charged that the first patient to contract the Omicron variant in the Chinese capital had received a letter mailed from Canada on January 7, according to the South China Morning Post. "We do not rule out the possibility that the person was infected through contacting an object from overseas", she commented. 
 
There are two rather amazing things about this story; one, that Canada Post somehow managed to forward a letter to China in record time, despite its usual snail-pace service from say, Toronto to Vancouver; two, that the Chinese elite-level medical service can seriously believe as stated that paper or cardboard shifted across international borders on a long trip handled by many innocents managed to bring with it a live pathogen capable of infecting a poor innocent Beijing resident courtesy of a Canadian correspondent.
 
Strangely enough, locally-transmitted Omicron mutated infections have been diagnosed in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong and one wonders whether the infected persons were interrogated over whether they had received mail correspondence from some hugely infected source such as Canada. Possibly as a return gift to the very source of the original COVID-19 pathogen which China so kindly released world-wide to devastate the world's population and economy in the interests of sharing.

A Toronto letter sent to a Beijing correspondent, transmitting the Omicron variant in view of the Wuhan-based coronavirus sounds like a very friendly exchange. One anomalous infection courtesy of a correspondent sent to an unsuspecting contact returning the compliment of multi-hundred-millions infections spread worldwide by unsuspecting Chinese citizens never realizing -- while their governments most assuredly did -- that they were spreading the novel coronavirus globally.
 
That's the sour outlook of what has occurred these past two years and is adamantly, feverishly ongoing. According to genome sequencing of the patient's sample, the Omicron strain was 'similar' to the one spreading in North America and in Singapore last month. Different from the one currently found in other parts of the country, according to the South China Morning Post. And who would disbelief the official Beijing news source?
 
Margaret McCuaig-Johnson might, as a University of Ottawa China expert with over three decades working on China issues in the Canadian public service. Who opined it is downright ludicrous suggesting that the strain might have survived on an envelope or package that travelled that distance through international mail. Chinese allegations indicates its leadership still continues to target Canada following the dispute over the arrest of Huawei's Meng Wanzhou in 2018 in an extradition case dropped in 2021.
 
Last year, Chinese officials repeated the claim that COVID-19 had been discovered on contaminated imports such as frozen foods, despite the fact that the virus cannot survive on surfaces (fomites) for prolonged periods, according to medical experts everywhere. Beijing has also asserted its conviction that the coronavirus did not originally erupt in China, but was brought there by foreigners from abroad (see U.S.ofA.)
"Because of the poor survivability of coronaviruses on surfaces there is a low risk of spread from products or packages shipped over a period of days or weeks."
World Health Organization 
Beijing
Commuters wearing face masks to help protect against the coronavirus walk across an intersection in the central business district in Beijing, Thursday, Jan. 13, 2022. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Labels: , , , , ,

Thursday, June 03, 2021

Lest There Be Doubt

"The WHO [World Health Organization] asked us if we could share the biological material and if we could rerun the tests in an independent laboratory."
"We accepted."
"None of the studies published so far have ever questioned the geographical origin [of SARS-CoV-2]."
"The growing doubt is that the virus, probably less powerful compared to later months, was circulating in China long before the reported cases."
Giovanni Apolone, scientific director, Milan Cancer Institute
Study: Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy. Image Credit: columbo.photog / Shutterstock
Study: Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy. Image Credit: columbo.photog / Shutterstock
 
The World Health Organization requested of two scientists who had led Italian research into the first appearances of the novel coronavirus that samples from a study suggested the coronavirus was circulating outside China by October of 2019 undergo re-testing. This, in the face of discomfort at the WHO over growing international pressure to investigate more deeply the origins of the global pandemic that has succeeded in ending the lives of over three million people globally.

And nor is the WHO particularly enamoured of U.S.President Biden's announcement that American intelligence agencies were directed by him to pursue the issue of rival theories inclusive of the possibility that a laboratory 'escape' accident in China unleashed this killer virus on the world body. Their response was that the search for answers was being "poisoned by politics". Whereas it is more than likely that politicians and scientists want to understand what, who and why caused this pandemic to stalk the world.
 
Its predatory presence first identified in the Chinese megacity of Wuhan in December of 2019, Italy's first patient with COVID-19 was diagnosed on the 21st of February, 2020 in a small town close to Milan. Last year a published study revealed evidence that antibodies to the virus or a variant thereof was detected in 2019, in Italy. Information that Beijing gratefully grasped and ran with as proof-positive that the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID emanated not from China, but Italy.
 
In response, the Italian researchers emphasized that the findings served to raise questions relating to when the virus first emerged, not where it emanated from. "WHO is in contact with the researchers that had published the original paper. A collaboration with partner laboratories has been set up for further testing", explained a spokesperson for the World Health Organization. WHO, the United Nations agency that has just elected Syria to its board.
 
The Syrian regime knows quite a bit about mass killing. Fit to sit on the world body's health board. After all, it is an impressive number, a half-million Syrians dying at the military hands of their own government, who used poison chemicals, barrel bombs and helicopter gunships to penalize its citizens who questioned the right of a tyrannical government to disorder their lives. 
 
The UN agency has made contact with all researchers who published or provided information on samples collected in 2019 that were known to have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. And similarly the spokesperson mentioned that the WHO, aware the researchers plan to publish a follow-up report "in the near future" wants to keep ahead of results, interpretations and claims. 
 
Published by the INT's scientific magazine Tumori Journal, the Italian researchers' findings showed the presence of neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 isolated in blood drawn from healthy volunteers in Italy in October 2019 during a lung cancer screening trial. Those volunteers came from Lombardy, which happens to be the northern region adjacent Milan -- the first and hardest hit in Italy, by the virus. 
 
Mass Vaccination Begins In Iseo, Brescia

There are no robust data on the real onset of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and spread in the prepandemic period worldwide. We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)–specific antibodies in blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 to track the date of onset, frequency, and temporal and geographic variations across the Italian regions. SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%), with a cluster of positive cases (>30%) in the second week of February 2020 and the highest number (53.2%) in Lombardy. This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified, and clarifies the onset and spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic.

 

Labels: , , , , ,

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

Canada's Prime Minister's Unreciprocated Love Affair With China

"Threats, censorship and intimidation will continue as long as companies, not-for-profits academia, politicians, media and other institutions with vested interests are fearful of angering Beijing."
"Beijing is effectively exporting their authoritarianism overseas."
"Dissidents are not safe. Not at work, not in their homes, not in civil societies, and not in Canada."
"[There is a] persistent lack of knowledge and understanding of these networks of influence within Canadian institutions, politics and society [which permits Chinese infiltration to influence Canada to go under the radar]."
Cherie Wong, executive director, Alliance Canada Hong Kong 

"[China has also expanded its influence through academia, particularly in the area of research and development, often through] ludicrous funding opportunities that trap academics and researchers into long-term coercive relationships [funded by foreign actors]."
"Inadequate federal regulations [have allowed such partnerships to continue]."
"Beijing aims to influence the next generation of technologies to disrupt, dominate, and silence democratic nations, making it clear they do not intend to follow the international order or be a fair and transparent global partner."
Report, Alliance Canada Hong Kong
Security personnel keep watch outside the Wuhan Institute of Virology during the visit by the World Health Organization (WHO) team tasked with investigating the origins of COVID-19, in Wuhan, Hubei province, China on Feb. 3, 2021. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)
 
The most recent egregious Canada-China interaction has a sinister air of confidence, marked top secret in a country whose prime minister once infamously and naively stated his admiration for the Chinese Communist Party, able to 'turn on a dime'. Justin Trudeau recalls fondly when as a child he accompanied his father, then-Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau to China, opening Canada up to the CCP, just as he had taken the current prime minister Justin Trudeau in those long-ago days to Cuba to meet with 'Uncle Castro' for whom he long retained a fondness.

As prime minister, Justin Trudeau makes decisions that impact the entire country. As he did, when the novel coronavirus escaped China's borders to make deadly inroads globally, by making the decision that Canada would seek a vaccine in collaboration with a Chinese pharmaceutical company, CanSino, whose CEO and founder had attended a Canadian university and worked for a Canadian pharmaceutical enterprise before returning to China.

Prime Minister Trudeau in tandem with the National Research Council underwrote CanSino Biologics by providing it with Canadian intellectual property on which to base its vaccine for Ebola and SARS-CoV-2. Under the agreement reached with CanSino, Canadian technology would be used as a scaffold on which to build a successful COVID vaccine which was meant to be tested at Dalhousie University, with the NRC helping to produce it in Canada if successful. Beijing decided,  however, to block the vaccine from being shipped to Canada.

Leaving Canada in a vacuum of vaccine acquisition, since no contracts had been signed with reliable pharmaceutical companies capable of producing vaccines. Scrambling, in a late start to acquire vaccines, Canada was late in their use since it was back-of-the-line in contracting for doses to inoculate Canadians against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. But there is far, far more to the Canada-China 'collaboration'. A connection between Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, both high-security labs involved in research with highly lethal pathogens.
 
The head scientist at Winnipeg's Vaccine Development and Antiviral Therapies section in the Special Pathogens Program lab was Xiangguo Qiu, a Chinese virologist. In July of 2019, she and her husband Keding Cheng, as well as several of her Chinese students were escorted out of the lab by the RCMP. No explanation was given while officials stated only that a procedural investigation was underway. There were rumours in circulation of unauthorized shipment of deadly viruses from the laboratory to China; otherwise known as purloined intellectual property.

Map showing location of Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan city
The two top scientists were eventually fired when the Canadian Security Intelligence Service called for revocation on national security grounds of their security clearance. Another Chinese scientist, Feihu Yan involved in the Winnipeg lab as a researcher with the Chinese military's Academy of Military Medical Sciences, made heads swivel. Andy Ellis, formerly with CSIS noted it was "madness" for the Public Health Agency of Canada, responsible for the Winnipeg laboratory, to cooperate with the People's Liberation Army.

"It is ill-advised. It is the top lab in Canada. It is just incredible naivete on their part", he emphasized. The Public Health Agency of Canada refuses to disclose anything relating to the firing of the two Chinese scientists much less about the lab research or the relationship of the National Microbiology Laboratory with the Wuhan Virology Laboratory, much less the third skeleton in the closet, the involvement of the Chinese military.
In this 2017 file photo, Chinese virologist Shi Zhengli works with other researchers in a lab at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The so-called Wuhan lab-leak theory postulates that researchers may have been studying or even modifying such viruses to better understand them, and that a lab accident allowed the virus to escape. (Associated Press)

New life has lately been breathed into the theory of the Wuhan Laboratory studying bat viruses, its close geographical proximity to the fresh wild animal market in Wuhan where suspicion was that the strange new pneumonia-causing virus that had surfaced in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, later identified as a novel coronavirus that moved swiftly to infect large swaths of people in Wuhan, in China, and gradually but quickly the rest of the world, emerged. And COVID-19 was born. Was it a rare virus that crossed the species barrier from animal to human? Or a lab-escapee?
 
Prominent scientists are now insisting that the theory is no longer in the realm of conspiracy, that it is a feasible explanation for the presence of a new and deadly SARS virus. That the Wuhan Virology Laboratory was insufficiently secure and a virus that had been synthesized in the laboratory had somehow escaped, an escape with horrendous consequences -- and that Beijing was irresponsible in trying to hide its noxious presence and in so doing introduced a global threat to human existence.
 
The problem for Canada now, is its links with the laboratory and its obviously compromised position. While U.S. President Biden has authorized a deep investigation of the matter which Beijing most certainly will not cooperate with, in permitting access to the laboratory, to the market confines, to witnesses, to its scientists, to the records that it refused the WHO investigative team access to, the truth will somehow emerge, and Canada's role in the disaster will also emerge, damning its reputation, thanks to a prime minister with ambitions for a robust trade agreement with Beijing and a lack of common sense.

Republicans, including former president Donald Trump, have promoted the theory that the virus emerged from the Wuhan lab rather than naturally through human contact with an infected animal. While initially dismissed by some as a conspiracy theory, now credible scientists are saying a proper investigation needs to be done. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)

 

Labels: , , , ,

Saturday, April 10, 2021

Strict Controls During COVID Result in Fewer Deaths

"There's a lot of learning to be had from those countries where they've not had the same excess mortality."
"We do need to learn from those countries and see what they've done."
Dr.Thomas Beaney, researcher, physician, Imperial College London

"I did think the lockdowns were a cure worse than the disease. I was very much on the side of 'we have to open up, we're doing more harm than good'. I changed my mind on that."
"Probably the best and the cheapest policy you could have [tight border controls]."
Israeli economist, Ariel Karlinsky, researcher, Kohelet Economic Forum, Jerusalem
According to a Statistics Canada report last month, this country saw 13,798 more deaths than would be expected by mid-December of 2020, based on previous years and after accounting for the aging population.
During this time of SARS-CoV-2 virus causing pathogenic infections all over the world many of the countries that reacted with lockdowns and strict isolation procedures have seen a plateau in what is described as "excess deaths", while other countries that adopted a more relaxed, open attitude to the incursion of the novel coronavirus have suffered more severely. What is a real phenomenon is that many countries have seen more people dying during this time of COVID-19 than would occur on an average year.

Australia, Taiwan and South Korea rate highly for their success in managing to contain the coronavirus. There, no 'excess deaths' appear to have occurred. They have, in fact, recorded fewer mortality cases than what occurred in 'normal' years, an outcome underscoring the success of their public health strategies. Excess-death data reflecting what is occurring across the globe has yielded intriguing trends that just might promise to guide the world to best practises in response to future pandemics.

Researcher-economist Ariel Karlinsky decided he would create a "world mortality dataset" in part to look further into suspicions that enacting strict public health measures to counteract the novel coronavirus had been unnecessary and counter-productive. His data set  provides information on 77 countries drawn from a variety of sources, and regularly updated. In the process it destroyed his own hypothesis that the presence of the coronavirus was over-rated in danger, and government reactions were too restrictive.

Excess deaths are viewed by many experts as a gold standard of measurement as opposed to the flawed alternative statistics as an indicator of how grievously the pandemic has afflicted the world. The efficiency and extensiveness of testing relate to the reliability of the number of lab-confirmed cases. Mortality linked to the coronavirus can be difficult to compare, reflecting different criteria in various countries in counting individuals' COVID deaths. Some countries, additionally, have likely taken steps to hide the toll of the pandemic.

While not specifying the cause of death, excess mortality is more comprehensive comparably between nations according to Jason Oke, senior statistician with Oxford University's Nuffield Department of Primary Health Care Sciences. "It also takes into account possible side effects or indirect effects of the pandemic. It does truly measure the impact of the pandemic."

Canada, according to a Statistics Canada report issued last month, saw 13,798 additional deaths over what might be expected by mid-December 2020, based on previous years, after accounting for the aging population. Representing an increase of roughly five percent. Just over 14,000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 by last December, representing roughly 42 excess deaths per 100,000 people, according to Ode's Oxford team.

There were 132 per 100,000 in comparison in the United States during 2020; 100 in England and Wales; 33 in Germany; and 175 excess deaths per 100.000 in Poland. Most interesting: the minority of countries that were able to keep the coronavirus under control with a variety of public health measures where Australia saw a three percent decrease n excess deaths in 2020, New Zealand a six percent reduction, and Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore were flat or lower, according to Karlinsky's list.
 
Countries like South Korea that are rated highly for containing the coronavirus have seen no excess deaths, or have reported even less mortality than in “normal” years. Countries like South Korea that are rated highly for containing the coronavirus have seen no excess deaths, or have reported even less mortality than in “normal” years. Photo by Heo R
 
What has stood out in death-negative countries were tight restrictions on international travel, along with targeted lockdowns and aggressive contact tracing of those cases that did occur. In countries like Canada and Israel the range of excess deaths where less-stringent measures were enacted, leaves it unclear how well those lockdown formulas succeeded. Denmark and Norway had relative reductions in mortality while Sweden which eschewed strict lockdown measures experienced 1.5 percent more deaths than in recent years.
 
Excess deaths leave open-ended the cause of some such deaths reflecting the crude nature of excess death data. Some researchers feel it to be likely that some countries with large gaps between COVID numbers and excess mortality under-count fatal coronavirus cases. Russia, as an example, recorded 72,000 COVID-19 deaths and 425,000 excess deaths since the start of the pandemic.
 
Excess mortality in some instances may result from other causes such as health-care systems restricting or deterring people from seeking medical help for heart disease or cancer, according to Dr.Beaney. Both Alberta and British Columbia reported sharp increases in fatal overdoses in 2020. And there are other issues at play that more research may reveal. For example, relative reductions in deaths due to air pollution decrease and road traffic, as a result of COVID restrictions. 

Labels: , , ,

Saturday, April 03, 2021

COVID Convergence Mutations

"[I'm struck by the] amazing amount of convergent evolution we're seeing [with SARS-CoV-2]."
"There are these infamous mutations -- E484K, N501Y, and K417N -- which all three variants of concern are accumulating. That, added together, is very strong biology that this is the best version of this virus in the given moment."
Wendy Barclay, virologist, professor,Imperial College London

"If you wanted to sort of write a little textbook about viral evolution, it's happening right now."
"If it keeps happening over and over again, it must be providing some real growth advantage to this virus."
Dr.Francis Collins, geneticist, director, U.S. National Institutes of Health

"It's shown a very strong set of opening moves."
"We don't know what the end game is going to look like."
Vaughn Cooper, evolutionary biology specialist, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
https://static.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20210331&t=2&i=1556837699&r=LYNXMPEH2U09M&w=1600
National Institutes of Health Director Francis S. Collins holds a model of SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus, as he testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S. Graeme Jennings/Pool via REUTERS/
 
Perhaps it's just too much to hope for at this junction that the novel coronavirus is mutating itself out of the realm of viral pathogenic superiority. It's as though a contestant for the worst-killer-virus-in-history is given just so many moves to improve its game, and it's making the wrong choices, and compounding them in an effort to become more deadly, whereas the process it's undergoing is beginning to mute its morbid effects on its human hosts.

Spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, Mutation in the spike protein that the virus uses to bind to the human ACE2 receptor. Mutation sped up spread of coronavirus.
Spike protein of SARS-CoV-2
The new variants that were detected in geographies far from one another, such as Brazil, South Africa and Britain mutated spontaneously within a short time-frame late last year, where all three share some similar mutations located in the vital 'spike' region of the virus, enabling it to enter and infect human cells. The E484k mutation, that some scientists familiarly named "EEk" for its capacity to evade natural immunity from previous COVID-19 infections while reducing protection offered by current vaccines, which is designed to target the spike protein, is included.

Similar mutations independent of one another have been appearing in various parts of the globe, indicating that the coronavirus is in the process of undergoing "convergent evolution", according to a number of scientists Reuters has interviewed. With expectations that the coronavirus will continue to mutate, immunologists and virologists now suspect that the coronavirus may be exhausting the fixed number of moves its evolutionary cycle allows.

If such is actually the case, the long-term impact for its survival remains to be seen, based on whether a limit exists on the number of possible mutations it can attain to, making it less dangerous. "It is plausible that this virus has a relatively limited number of antibody escape mutations it can make before it has played all of its cards, so to speak", explained Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology, San Diego.

That being the case, drugmakers could be enabled to remain current with the virus, developing booster vaccines meant to target current variants directly, even as governments struggle to control a pandemic that has succeeded in killing close to three million people globally. Experts have been mulling over the theory that the virus could be imbued with a limited number of mutations since early February, and it has gathered momentum since a paper was published showing the spontaneous appearance of seven variants in the United States alone, all appearing in the same region of the spike protein.

The very process of different species independently evolving like traits to improve survival odds represents the core of evolutionary biology. The current pandemic represents an evolutionary process scientists have been able to study in real time through the vast scope of its impact, with 127.3 million global infections. No pathogen in history has ever evolved within a comparable global scrutiny as has SARS=CoV-2.

This coronavirus in particular is not held by scientists to be particularly 'clever'. It is programmed by nature to replicate itself every time it infects people. Each copy the virus produces can be flawed in its exactness to the original. Some of these inexact copies may be one-time occurrences, while those that render a survival advantage to the coronavirus have a tendency to persist. And before compromising its fitness or changing so much it is no longer the same virus, leads some specialists to believe the virus may have a limited number of mutations available to it.

"I don't think it's going to reinvent itself with extra teeth", Ian Jones, a professor of virology at University of Reading in Britain, added. "If it had an unlimited number of tricks ... we would see an unlimited number of mutants, but we don't", observed Michael Nussenzweig, immunologist at Rockefeller University in New York. 

However, predicting how a virus will mutate is challenging. Should there be limits on how the coronavirus could evolve, matters would certainly be simplified for vaccine developers. As an example Novavax Inc. is in the process of adapting its vaccine specifically to target the South Africa variant which appeared to render current vaccines less effective, in laboratory tests. According to chief executive Stan Erck, the virus is capable of so much change only yet still binds to human hosts. The hope is that the vaccine would "cover the vast majority of strains that are circulating"

Data-sharing platforms like the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Flu Data is enabling researchers to track the variants through its huge trove of coronavirus genomes. Recently, scientists identified seven U.S. coronavirus variants with mutations occurring in the same location in a critical portion of the virus representing additional evidence of convergent evolution.

Experiments exposing the virus to antibodies in an effort to force it to mutate are being carried out by other teams of researchers. The same mutation in many cases appeared as a result, including the infamous E484K. Helping to raise cautious optimism that mutations appear to share many of the same traits, even as tracking changes in the virus must continue to choke off its ability to mutate by reducing transmission through vaccinations and other measures taken to limiting the virus's spread.

Scientists at Duke University sequenced positive coronavirus tests to identify which strains are circulating in the community, on Feb. 3.
Credit...Pete Kiehart for The New York Times

 

Labels: , , ,

Thursday, April 01, 2021

COVID's Elusive Origins : WHO Report

 

World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus speaks during a press conference at the World Health Organization headquarters in Geneva on June 25, 2020. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP)
 Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus Fabrice Coffrini/AFP
"Although the team has concluded that a laboratory leak is the least likely hypothesis, this requires further investigation, potentially with additional missions involving specialist experts, which I am ready to deploy."
"[The international expert team had] expressed the difficulties they encountered in accessing raw data [while in China]."
"[The report also] raises further questions that will need to be addressed by further studies."
"I expect future collaborative studies to include more timely and comprehensive data sharing."
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General, World Health Organization
 
Members of the World Health Organization (WHO) team investigating the origins of the novel coronavirus arrive by car at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, in China’s central Hubei province on February 3, 2021. (Hector Retamal/AFP)

"I still think the most likely etiology of this pathogen in Wuhan was from a laboratory escape."
"Other people don't believe that, that's fine, science will eventually figure it out."
Robert Redfield, virologist, former head, Centres for Disease Control

"[The Institute saw] no disruptions or incidents."
"[A formal audit of the laboratory was] far beyond what our team is mandated to do or has the tools and capabilities to do."
"The fact that we assessed this hypothesis [that the SARS-CoV-2 virus escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology lab] as extremely unlikely doesn't mean it's ruled out."
Peter Ben Embarek, WHO investigative team
"We were allowed to ask whatever questions we wanted, and we got answers. The only evidence that people have for a lab leak is that there is a lab in Wuhan."
"A thousand samples [of animals sold at the Huanan market when the WHO investigative team took samples from 188 animals of 18 species at the market, all of which tested negative] is a great start, but there’s more to do."
WHO team member Peter Daszak
Woman selling live chickens and ducks in cages at a food market in Lanzhou, China
Animal markets like this one in China could be a source of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the WHO report.   Credit: Eric Lafforgue/Art In All Of Us/Corbis via Getty

The World Health Organization's investigative team of ten travelled to Wuhan, China for the express purpose of conducting an unbiased, scientific survey of any available evidence in an attempt to determine the source of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that swept the world when it first surfaced as a strange new pneumonia-like pathogen deadlier and more infectious than most viruses that erupt from time to time in the East and spread eventually worldwide. The WHO team had plenty of local assistance in their diligent search for answers during their two-week stay.

There were quite a few interviews and on-site examinations, bearing in mind that the team had to first isolate on arriving in China before they could proceed. With them throughout their investigative exercise was a matching team of Chinese scientists to give them aid and direction, some 17 in number. The People's Republic of China was deeply and sincerely invested in the search for the origins of the novel coornavirus, making certain that at all times the WHO researchers were escorted by Chinese officialdom.

WHO microbiologists and medical researchers fully intended to do a thorough and creditable job of searching for answers while conducting interviews under constant supervision in the presence of government officials. Needless to say every individual who was questioned to gain a wider and more full understanding of what had occurred would have been under a certain level of constraint, testifying under the fixed scrutiny of government agents. In their minds no doubt, the fate of Li Wenliang accused of 'spreading harmful rumours' when he first alerted his colleagues to the presence of a threatening new virus. Before he himself died of COVID.

"It's essentially a highly-chaperoned, highly-curated study tour ... this group of experts only saw what the Chinese government wanted them to see", explained Jamie Metzl, former senior adviser to then-U.S.President Bill Clinton. What is known is simply that a novel coronavirus erupted from some source within walking distance of the high-security laboratory under the aegis of the Wuhan Institute of Virology specializing in the study of coronaviruses. It is also known that the laboratory is located not far from the wild animal 'wet' market where both domestic animals and exotic animals were sold, dead and alive.

And it was the market that Chinese authorities pointed to as the unfortunate source of cross-species, animal-to-human viral vector. These wet markets exist throughout Asia where an insatiable appetite for exotic animals like bats, snakes, pangolins and many other creatures can be satisfied. Crossing the species barrier for pathogens is rare, but it does happen. It did with AIDS and we know what agony that led to throughout the world.
"We could show the virus was circulating in the market as early as December 2019."
"A lot of good leads were suggested in this report, and we anticipate that many, if not all of them, will be followed through because we owe it to the world to understand what happened, why and how to prevent it from happening again."
Peter Ben Embarek,  co-leader, WHO investigative team
Long before the novel coronavirus was identified, the Wuhan Institute of Virology had come in for lax safety regulation criticism when a U.S. team of scientists had visited the premises and felt alarm at the situation prevailing there. That very same laboratory is involved in a security breach that took place in Canada's own National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg when a high-profile Chinese scientist and her husband, both employed there, were escorted from the lab never to return. Involved in an unauthorized transfer of highly sensitive biological samples from there to the Wuhan lab.

The team of WHO investigators appear to have reached the conclusion through a joint report that a lab escape of the coronavirus was to be regarded as "extremely unlikely" following a brief examination of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Four hours were spent at the facility by the WHO team, the investigation limited to interviews with laboratory staffers where the investigators were informed that no disruptions or incidents occurred, and nor did the WHO investigators request collaborative documentation.

The Beijing government appears to have withheld case data from outside investigators, the WHO team no exception. China, it would appear, deigned not to honour a request to turn over 174 health records from the first patients in Wuhan to contract COVID-19: "They showed us a couple of examples, but that's not the same as doing all of them, which is standard epidemiological investigation", explained Dominic Dwyer of the WHO team.

What the WHO team reported was that 92 cases of Wuhan patients exhibiting COVID-like symptoms were documented in October of 2019, quite a few weeks before the officially recognized first cases were reported by the Chinese government. The investigators were given Chinese assurances that serological tests indicated no link to COVID-19.
 
 

Labels: , , , , ,

Sunday, February 14, 2021

Poor Little Canada

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
Was happy to receive a call from my friend
@JustinTrudeau
. Assured him that India would do its best to facilitate supplies of COVID vaccines sought by Canada. We also agreed to continue collaborating on other important issues like Climate Change and the global economic recovery.
The Serum Institute in India is the world's largest producer of vaccines, located in Pune, Western India. It has a contract with AstraZeneca to supply its COVID-19 vaccines for global distribution, along with supplying its own massive population with the vaccines. AstraZeneca's vaccine has not yet been approved by Health Canada, but the situation in Canada of decreasing numbers of vaccine doses being received has halted its initiative to inoculate its most vulnerable populations before embarking on a general vaccination of the entire population.  
"I can highlight that India has been a great partner in fighting COVID, whether it's helping us with delivery of other pharmaceuticals or whether it's working together on potential vaccines." 
"We're going to continue to build on the strong relationship between Canada and India and ensure that we're looking out for our citizens, while at the same time we're looking to recover the global economy and create opportunities for everyone." 
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau 
Left: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Right: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (Amir Cohen, Blair Gable/Reuters)
 
At the rate of vaccination that Canada currently occupies, it is in about 38th place worldwide, behind Singapore, Turkey, Croatia, Austria, Czech Republic, France, Cyprus, Sweden, Belgium, Portugal, Hungary, Germany, Finland, Greece, Norway, Estonia, Slovakia, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, Ireland, Iceland, Romania, Maldives, Denmark, Chile, Serbia, Malta, U.S., Bahrain, U.K., UAE, Seychelles, and of course, number one, Israel.

Those over 80 in Canada will likely not be vaccinated until April. Seniors and the health-impaired and their caregivers in long-term care facilities were scheduled to be the first, along with frontline health-care workers, to receive the vaccine doses received from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech, and while the undertaking had begun, Canada was advised by both pharmaceutical companies that there would be delays in providing the entire anticipated tranches as scheduled. A setback which has idled the vaccination enterprise.

Canada turned to the UN-inspired COVAX program, meant to provide under-developed and poor nations with vaccines. Not a good look. A wealthy country like Canada which has, albeit tardily, pre-ordered tens of millions of doses of COVID vaccine from a variety of producers, even while it has back-of-the-line status because it took so long to begin its ordering. A wait that occurred as a result of making an ill-fated agreement with CanSino to co-develop a vaccine which Beijing ultimately refused export to Canada.

Leaving a desperate government of Canada, to look elsewhere, anywhere, for vaccines in a world becoming increasingly nation-specific-vaccine-aggressive. Where producing countries are looking, for obvious reasons, to ensure that their own populations are inoculated before allowing vaccines to be shipped elsewhere. In the precarious situation Canada finds itself in, the current government sees its vote-potential for a near election plummeting.

Motivating the government to frantically call upon vaccine manufacturers to come to its aid. India is investing its energy in supplying have-not nations, and along comes Canada to ask for special dispensation. India, a country with which Canada had good relations, but between them now diplomacy has taken a hit. Prime Minister Modi strikes a delicate balance between suspicion of a Canadian prime minister who has quite a few Sikhs in his party and in his Cabinet suspected of sympathy for an independent Sikh homeland, Khalistan, and maintaining friendly relations with Canada.

Moreover, this is a Canadian prime minister who has not hesitated to embarrass his Indian counterpart by commenting critically on interior government matters in India, aside from the fact of an embarrassing state visit a few years back when Justin Trudeau made an absolute ass of himself, as an embarrassment both to Canada and to India; with a lack of diplomatic prudence in bringing along an avowed Khalistani sympathizer and supporter of Mr. Trudeau's Liberal party.

 So far, 3.06 Canadians per 100 people have been vaccinated. The Trudeau government insists that by September all Canadians wishing to be inoculated, will be. A promise that looks highly unlikely to be fulfilled. Most Canadians, keeping abreast of conditions and the lack of vaccine shipments now anticipate that full inoculation will only take place by halfway through 2022, leaving Canada far, far behind its wealthy-nation counterparts. A hugely disappointing performance.  

Labels: , , ,

Monday, February 08, 2021

India: Rescued by Herd Immunity

 

"It was totally overwhelming. November was the worst. We could only accommodate the number of patients we could discharge."
"We were managing very, very sick patients in the ward, as there was no room in the ICU."
"To our relief and surprise, the number of cases have started to come down drastically."
"If the situation continues like this for a month, we can say we have achieved sustained low numbers because of immunity and vaccination."
"But we have to keep our fingers crossed. These good times may not continue forever."
Dr.Sushila Kataria, Medanta hospital, New Delhi  

A mural in New Delhi is part of public health messaging in India. The country has seen a dramatic decline in new cases since the fall, but researchers aren't sure why.  Sanchit Khanna/Hindustan Times via Getty Images

"What we seem to have done is let the virus run its course. By not flattening the curve in the beginning, India went through the herd immunity threshold and the epidemic seems to be naturally coming down."
"We will never know how many people died -- no one is counting."
Jacob John, virologist, retired professor, Christian Medical College, Vellore, Tamil Nadu state

"I am hopeful the worst is over. In certain areas, like large cities, we may have come close to achieving a good amount of immunity -- if not herd immunity, close to it."
"The estimates are that 30 to 50 percent of individuals may have had asymptomatic or mild infections and not gotten tested. Many who had developed mild symptoms may have had COVID-19 without realizing it."
Dr.Randeep Guleria, director, All India Institute of Medical Sciences

"We are seeing a lot less severe disease than the rest of t he world, and a lot more asymptomatic infections."
"Part of the reason might be prior exposure to lots of other pathogens. We live in an environment where we are exposed to all kinds of pathogens all the time and we learn not to react too much."
"It looks like the virus has really spread widely in the country. Maybe the reason the numbers are crashing is that most people have been infected and infection gives you at least 80 percent protection for months at a time."
"If you look at the places that did well with control early on, they are the ones [that] have a high level of infection now."
"And if a variant comes along that escapes immune responses, then everyone is in play again."
Gagandeep Kang, microbiologist
People wearing protective masks wait in line to board a bus amidst the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Mumbai, India, October, 6, 2020
India has recorded some 10.7 million Covid-19 infections so far   Reuters
 
Exhausted doctors in New Deli whose non-stop reaction to the COVID pandemic left them overworked, isolated for fear they would transmit a virus to their families, and anxious to see the end of the nightmare of the SARS-CoV-2 viral epidemic are incredulous but thankful to recognize that daily new infections in India's capital have seen a sharp drop in recent weeks. This is a trend that has extended well beyond New Delhi where India's new confirmed coronavirus infections nationally have fallen suddenly from a peak of close to 100,000 new infections daily in September to an average of 13,000 to 14,000 each day at the present time.

Health surveys reveal that much higher public exposure to the virus than was previously understood to have occurred was the reality. While many other countries all with infinitely smaller populations are struggling through second and third waves and recognizing the emergence of troubling new variants of the coronavirus, India's precipitous drop in infections seems to indicate that their version of the pandemic is well on its way to burning out in India. 

Speculation has led to the conclusion that this is the result of the nation's crowded cities and that the level of communication of the virus has led to natural "herd immunity" having arisen even before vaccines have been widely used in mass inoculations. The most reasonable hypothesis to the surprise drop in infections is seen to focus on the virus spread losing steam, a situation leading to cautious optimism that the pandemic's shadow is slinking off, allowing the country to begin repair of its collapsed economy resulting from a strict lockdown, restrictions and public fear.

The Reserve Bank of India recently issued a bulletin alerting to the "increasing probability" of a stronger-than-anticipated economic rebound in lock step with COVID receding. "Barring the visitation of a second wave, the worst is behind us. The recovery is getting stronger in its traction, and soon the winter of our discontent will be made glorious summer", the bulletin poetically crowed.

Back in March when India began reeling under the certainty that the first few hundred coronavirus infections would soon balloon out to hundreds of thousands, a draconian nationwide lockdown was imposed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for which he apologized as a necessity to avert complete disaster. The purpose, he explained, was to break the chain of viral transmission. Public transport was suspended for months, people could only buy food, medicine and cleaning products while India's economy contracted 24 percent year on year.

In a country where millions live in tight proximity sharing community toilets and water taps in congested slums, lockdown failed to accomplish its purpose. The pathogen spread from the cities into the hinterlands carried by laid-off migrant workers who returned to their far-off villages. Over 10.7 million confirmed coronavirus infections were reported in all of India, the second-highest number following that of the U.S. Even so, experts feel the real case total to be much higher; most infections not recognized nor recorded.

Photo: PTI
Photo: PTI
"The reported cases are not even remotely a reflection of true cases -- they only reflect people who got tested. For reasons that we don't fully know, the virus has spread like wildfire in India -- more than in any other country in the world", stated Vikram Patel, professor of global health at Harvard Medical School. Over half of residents in cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Pune have been exposed to the virus according to seroprevalence studies. An estimate of 31 million infections by mid-August in Karnataka state, included 44 percent of the rural population and 54 percent of the urban population.

Over 154,000 COVID-19 deaths were reported in India, but the actual death count may never be known, since most Indians tend to die at home without a cause of death ever formally determined. Some researchers, despite that reality, feel that India's COVID mortality rate has in all probability not been as high as many other regions given the relative youth of the country's population with just 6.5 percent over 65 years of age in comparison to Europe's one-fifth.

Health economist Rijo John, based in Kerala, feels the virus strain that has swept through India is a less virulent one than has inundated populations elsewhere. "It's pretty generally accepted that in India, we have a very mild form of the virus. But the future is hard to predict." For the meanwhile, however, India's pandemic appears to be in steep decline.Most of the country's 270 million schoolchildren have been out of class since March. White-collar professionals work from home and have done so for almost a year, with most elderly people remaining exclusively at home, susceptible to infection.

An ambitious vaccination campaign has been launched by the government with an aim to inoculate 300 million Indians by August's end. A number that includes health-care workers and the elderly. Roughly 3 million people have been vaccinated once the drive began two weeks earlier indicating that reaching the total of 300 million will probably become a slow, protracted process.
"A lot of this is in the rear-view mirror but that doesn't mean we are done and dusted yet."
"We have an artificial situation in which we've reached an equilibrium, but if we went back to normal, there is still a lot of room for cases going up."
Ramanan Laxminarayan, director, Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Figure 1. The distribution of severity: Cumulative severity of COVID-19 and proportionate mortality from top causes (percent)

Cumulative severity of COVID-19 and proportionate mortality from top causes (percent)   Source: Johns Hopkins University; World Health Organization.


Labels: , ,

Tuesday, February 02, 2021

Beijing, Vindicatng Itself


An old man looking at somewhere far away from him
Mr Zhang's father (Supplied: Zhang Hai)
"Very important site visits today -- a wholesale market first & Huanan Seafood Market just now."  "Very informative & critical for our joint teams to understand the epidemiology of COVID as it started to spread at the end of 2019."
Peter Daszak, zoologist with U.S. group EcoHealth Alliance, member of WHO team
 
"The government's first priority is to protect the people's health and safety, but it failed to inform the public as soon as the coronavirus outbreak happened."
"My father, a very patriotic soldier, had devoted his youth to the nation … but he was killed by COVID-19 in his later life."
"The epidemic would never happen if the government had truly put the people's interest [as their] first priority."
"[He wouldn't trust visits organized and limited by the Chinese government, and thought the information patients gave could be] highly suspicious."
"They could have been trained many months ago, and been ordered to stage and repeat the government's narrative."
"I am highly concerned that the WHO experts in Wuhan are not a match for these counterfeiters."
 Zhang Hai, 51, Wuhan resident
 
WHO experts went to an exhibition in Wuhan
The WHO team visits an exhibition about the Government's successful response to contain the coronavirus in Wuhan on Saturday.   (AP: Ng Han Guan)
"[I had] police interviews, cameras pointing at home, and dismissal from work. They pressured my families, stalked my activities, which is completely unscrupulous."
"[I am told] don't contact the foreign media, because it will be used by anti-China forces, which is detrimental to our country."
"I just want everyone to know that the government is a murderer for hiding the epidemic."
 Parent who lost an only child

Government propaganda for the Chinese Communist Party officially denies it was in any way irresponsible over its handling of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19, over charges that it waited too long to warn the international community and the World Health Organization of its discovery of a strange new pneumonia-like illness that was plaguing people in Wuhan City. Its assurance when it did alert the WHO that person-to-person transmission was unlikely was inaccurate and harmful to the world's understanding of what was unfolding.

Not only does Beijing deny that it acted in anything but a responsible manner, but it also denies that the virus itself first emerged in Hubei Province, northern China. Rather, the propaganda slyly insists it emerged elsewhere, abroad, and was imported to China. That happened in one of two ways, they claim; either through infected frozen meat exported by a European country into China, or it was deliberately brought to China by U.S. agents. 

Beijing's inexcusable attempts to hide the presence of a new, highly contagious and lethal-to-the-elderly virus, its silencing of physicians in Wuhan hospitals who raised the alarm, threatening them and accusing them of spreading 'false news', also did not happen, but represents a malicious attempt on the part of the West to smear China. Casually speaking of the virus as the 'Wuhan virus', or the 'Chinese virus' sends Beijing into paroxysms of fury, but not a word is murmured by the WHO about racism when the media speak of the new 'U.K.' mutation', or the 'South African' variant.

Beijing screamed bloody murder and called it racism when other countries began to close their borders to China, and the World Health Organization chastised those that did, wagging a finger of racism at them as well. Yet once China succeeded during the first wave of the coronavirus to achieve a measure of control, it closed its borders to entry from abroad, where Italy and Spain in particular were experiencing a crisis in runaway COVID infection rates overwhelming their health care systems.

Wuhan
A security person moves journalists away from the Wuhan Institute of Virology after a World Health Organization team arrived for a field visit in Wuhan in China's Hubei province on Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021. The WHO team is investigating the origins of the coronavirus pandemic has visited two disease control centers in the province. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

American authorities and some U.S. bioscientists raised the possibility that the virus was an escapee of a biohazard laboratory located not far from the Wuhan live meat market which sold pangolin, wolf cubs, bats, snakes and other live animals for slaughter for the human palate and where the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first said to have emerged. To this day there is no consensus of opinion over that hypothesis; eminent scientists declare it to be hugely unlikely while others retain suspicion.

China delayed the entry of the WHO team of investigators to Wuhan City although it had initially agreed that it would cooperate with their mission to study the breakout of the virus that had crossed the species barrier from wild animals to human victims, not an entirely rare occurrence and invariably difficult to control. But after delays and controversy, the team, having undergone a 14-day mandatory isolation period on arrival in China, is now into its third day of a two-week investigation.
"The team plans to visit hospitals, laboratories and markets. Field visits will include the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Huanan market, Wuhan CDC [Center for Disease Control and Prevention] laboratory."
"All hypotheses are on the table as the team follows the science in their work. They should receive the support, access and the data they need."
World Health Organization statement
 
"It is now that the actual field work can begin, and it is my expectation that for this part of the mission we will have unhindered access to the requested destinations and individuals."
"But it is important to remember that the success of this mission and origin-tracing is 100 percent depending on access to the relevant sources."
"No matter how competent we are, how hard we work and how many stones we try to turn, this can only be possible with the support from China."
Thea Fischer, Danish team member
China's foreign ministry for its part said the WHO team is scheduled to participate in seminars, visits and field trips, and it is no doubt hoping that it can de-politicize the assumptions some of the WHO members come equipped with, while carrying on its own politicization of a topic so overwhelmingly pervasive throughout the world and so deadly that millions of lives globally have been lost to the viral predator. Beijing, by setting its own program for the visit before the investigators, likely seeks to diminish the time allotted for the WHO members' own agenda while consuming that time in 'meetings'.
 
Beijing has also made it abundantly clear that it has complete control over where the WHO team will be escorted, always in the presence of handlers. And the many Chinese who are intent on being interviewed by the WHO team while Chinese authorities harass and threaten their outspokenness, is simply yet another facet of a lost cause; try as they sincerely will, with the obstacles placed in their path to fulfilling their mission, it is highly unlikely the WHO will come away with anything but Beijing's approved narrative.
 
Wuhan
A worker in protective overall passes by a warehouse at the Baishazhou wholesale market during a visit by the World Health Organization on the third day of field visit in Wuhan in central China's Hubei province on Sunday, Jan. 31, 2021. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

Labels: , , , , , ,

Follow @rheytah Tweet