Monday, November 30, 2020

The Middle East Chess Game

"[The meeting with Netanyahu] aimed to highlight that MbS [Mohammed bin Salmon] is more willing than his father to take steps toward normalization without first reaching a two-state solution."
Neil Quilliam, Associate Fellow, Chatham House think tank
"We have supported normalization with Israel for a long time, because we are the authors of the 2002 Arab Peace initiative, which envisioned complete normalization with Israel."
"But there is one very important thing that has to happen first, which is a permanent and full peace deal between the Palestinians and Israelis that delivers a Palestinian state with dignity within the 1967 borders to the Palestinians."
Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud 

"[Iran has exploited a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers] to intensify its expansionist activities, create its terrorist networks, and use terrorism. [This had produced nothing but[ chaos, extremism, and sectarianism."
"A comprehensive solution and a firm international position are required. Our experience with the Iranian regime has taught us that partial solutions and appeasement did not stop its threats to international peace and security."
"We support the efforts of the current US administration to achieve peace in the Middle East by bringing the Palestinians and the Israelis to the negotiation table to reach a fair and comprehensive agreement."
"This terrorist organization must be disarmed."
Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz
King Salman reiterated the need for a Palestinian state [File: Waleed Ali/AP]
"[There have been reports about differences within the royal family, particularly between King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, on whether Saudi Arabia will follow others in the region and normalize ties with Israel.] So this was an opportunity to publicly before the world reiterate Saudi Arabia’s long-standing position … that there needs to be two states – an independent state of Palestine with its capital East Jerusalem."
"That’s a clear re-affirmation of Saudi Arabia’s stand and a real rejection of the current efforts to push Arab states to normalize with Israel. That was critically important."
Hillary Mann Leverett, former US official, CEO, political risk consultancy STRATEGA
The meeting between Israel's prime minister and the crown prince of Saudi Arabia messages both allies and enemies of the deep commitment the two countries have forged for the mutual concerns of containing the Islamic Republic of Iran's ambitions. The covert meeting that took place last Sunday in the Saudi city of Neom, publicly denied by Riyadh perhaps for several reasons, one being that King Salman had no prior notice of the impending meeting, conveyed a message to incoming President-elect Joe Biden. Allies of the U.S. are closing ranks, and they're focusing on future U.S. relations with Iran. 

No other Israeli leader has ever been in the position that Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself within, given current events in the region with softening attitudes evinced by Arab Muslim countries toward their Jewish neighbour whose support they all seek in their commonly-shared caution about the intentions of their Persian neighbour exploiting sectarian divisions, supporting and financing terrorist groups, fomenting regional problems, aspiring toward attaining nuclear weapons.

The covert visit had the effect of emphasizing the depth of concern shared by both Israel and Saudi Arabia about Iran, demonstrating just how serious opposition to Tehran is responsible for arranging a strategic realignment of countries in the Middle East in support of their common interests. "It's very important to create the axis which isolates Iran", explained Israeli cabinet minister Tzachi Hanegbi, commenting on the meeting.

The fear all now share with the clear understanding that the Trump administration is preparing to vacate the White House and President-elect Joe Biden is that is prepared to adopt Iran policies reflecting those practised during the U.S. presidency of Barack Obama which had the effect of straining Washington's connections with its traditional regional allies. Mr. Biden has made clear that he intends to rejoin the international nuclear pact with Iran that the U.S. under President Trump left in 2018.

Mr. Biden visualizes working with allies in strengthening the terms of the agreement should Tehran resume strict compliance. Which is expecting a lot, since it became clear soon after the 2015 agreement was signed by all concerned parties that strict compliance to the terms was never on Tehran's real-time agenda. Iran's network of armed Shi'ite militias across the Arab world, from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon and into the Gulf and Yemen, is alarming to its Sunni Muslim neighbours.

Saudi Arabia is particularly concerned with the Houthi rebels from Yemen, backed by Tehran attacking Saudi oil installations. On Israel's part, a silent war against Iranian forces through air raids in Syria on Lebanese Shi'ite paramilitary Hezbollah, on Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the focus on disrupting supplies of weapons shipped across the country, is ongoing. At the meeting on Sunday U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was present, along with the chief of Israel's Mossad.

Mr. Pompeo's active prompting of Gulf  relations with Israel, helped in formalizing Israel's already warm relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and eventually Sudan in normalizing relations with Israel. He has continued his efforts to persuade other Arab nations that it is in their best interests for a variety of reasons to join suit, with the expectation that more will follow. Saudi Arabia's position on normalization hinges on King Salman, adamant that a peace treaty with the Palestinians take place.

"Normalization ... is a carrot to get [Biden's] focus away from other issues, especially [Saudi] human rights", suggested a foreign diplomat in Riyadh. The death on Friday of Iran's chief nuclear scientist may have been planned to put a spanner in the works of Mr. Biden's plans to resume the nuclear deal with Iran, and if so, it will have been worth the condemnation on the part of other nations looking in from the outside, none of whom have to overly concern themselves about the malign, disruptive and violent plans of a near neighbour.


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