Thursday, December 02, 2021

Malicious Intent? No, Just Internal Housekeeping in Russia's Near-Abroad

Russian President Vladimir Putin Tuesday sternly warned NATO against deploying its troops and weapons to Ukraine, saying it represents a red line for Russia and would trigger a strong response.
"If some kind of strike systems appear on the territory of Ukraine, the flight time to Moscow will be seven to ten minutes, and five minutes in the case of a hypersonic weapon being deployed. Just imagine."
"What are we to do in such a scenario? We will have to then create something similar in relation to those who threaten us in that way."
"And we can do that now."
Russian President Vladimir Putin
“The problem is that when you use this instrument, declaring that you are ready to fight for your red lines ... a moment can arrive when you have to do so, when you are obliged to fight."
"Otherwise, the instruments stop working and no one believes you anymore."
"Politicians don’t only make right decision. Sometimes they make the wrong decisions."
"That’s the problem with politics."
Alexander Baunov, senior fellow, Carnegie Moscow Center
NATO has warned Moscow to prepare to pay a high price should any new military aggression against Ukraine be contemplated. Hard words from both sides; Ukraine vowing to defend itself from the Kremlin's views that it is Russia, not Ukraine, that decides the former Soviet satellite state's position in the order of all things Greater Russia, and Russia reasoning that Ukraine is delusional to imagine itself independent and sovereign given past affectionate ties.
 
Russian navy officers line up on the deck as the guided missile cruiser Moskva (Moscow) sails back into a harbour after tracking NATO warships in the Black Sea, in the port of Sevastopol, Crimea, on Nov. 16. (Alexey Pavlishak/Reuters)

Both the United States and NATO have issued alerts in meeting to discuss the possible motives behind the massing of Russian troops and armaments near the border with Ukraine. No longer the Soviet republic it once was, under duress, Ukraine's aspirations to become part of the European Union and NATO infuriates Russia's Putin who has no wish for either to edge any closer to its near abroad, interfering with Russia's plans for the future to move unerringly to the past.

Russia, countered Mr. Putin, could play NATO's game and place missiles strategically to match any placed by the alliance within Ukraine, to threaten Russia. "There will be a high price to pay for Russia if they once again use force against the independence of the nation Ukraine", spelled out NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenbeerg; nothing ambiguous about that statement, nor the one that followed by Anthony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State seconding with "Any escalatory actions by Russia would be a great concern to the United States ... and any renewed aggression would trigger serious consequences".

Military exercises were staged by Russia, Ukraine and NATO to further emphasize the gradient of concern and the potential for repercussions, amidst no shortage of accusations and recriminations, each charging the other of provocatory aggression. Mr. Putin's spelling out of Russia's 'red lines' leaves little room for either side to manoeuvre, each committed to their promise of retaliation.

The drawn-out escalation of Russia's geopolitical tug-of-war with the West to attain greater influence targets other ex-Soviet republics, Moldova and Georgia, with trade, cooperation and protection arrangements being the ties that bind. NATO foreign ministers met for two days of talks in Riga, Latvia debating the growing threat by Russia. There is one Russia and there are 29 alliance members in NATO.

Vadim, a squadron commander for the Ukrainian forces, says troops currently stationed in the Donetsk region are on high alert and will stay there 'until the end.' Ukrainian forces have been in a protracted conflict with Russian-backed separatist militias in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. Now, some Ukrainian and Western officials and military analysts fear that Russia could be planning to launch an invasion because it is moving forces and equipment closer to its border with Ukraine. (Kateryna Malofieieva for CBC )

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