Bluff and Counter-Bluff
"It is absolutely vital that the West is united now, because it is our unity now that will be much more effective in deterring any Russian aggression.""[We are urging] our European friends [to be prepared to deploy sanctions as soon as any incursion develops].""[NATO is unwilling to send troops into Ukraine itself and has to] beware of doing things... that would constitute a pretext for Putin to invade."British Prime Minister Boris Johnson addressing Parliament
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| Soldiers from the Royal Tank Regiment preparing for a deployment to Estonia at the Sennelager training centre in Germany last June. Photograph: Mike Whitehurst/Ministry of Defence/Crown |
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the country to remain calm. Work was underway to arrange a meeting between himself and leaders of Russia, Germany and France. "There are no rose-coloured glasses, no childish illusions, everything is not simple ... But there is hope", he assured his nation.
There are roughly 100,000 Russian troops stationed next to the Russian border with Ukraine. Tanks and other heavy military artillery are at the ready. Across Europe fears of an invasion are at a feverish level, even while Russia denies it has any such intention. War games, readiness rehearsals, what any country involves itself with, bringing along its neighbours with contiguous borders to Ukraine; Belarus and Kazakhstan. Friendly war games.
But the illusion of non-friendly intentions is there; unintentional or deliberate. Vladimir Putin does not indulge in the 'unintentional'. And the feeling of power that is instilled with all the attention with eyes swivelling his way seems to satisfy some inner compulsion that controls his ego. He imagines it is his destiny to leave a historical legacy of having re-united Eastern Europe once again under a Soviet-style banner of unity.
The power of communism is more than capable of fending off the intrusion of democratic alliances threatening the unity of the future plans of Greater Russia. Mr. Putin's schemes are a gambler's nightmare. Handing ultimatums to NATO and the United States; fulfill Russia's demands, without which there is no agreement on anything. Bringing Russia to the brink of invasion while denying any such intention, yet should the situation result in a forced withdrawal, there would be loss of 'face'. A red line.
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| Ukrainian soldiers in a front line trench near pro-Russian separatists take shelter from the extreme cold. |
On the other hand, all NATO members have made it clear they have no intention of committing their own troops to enter Ukraine for the purpose of facing invading Russian troops. Many will provide military equipment and strategic combat advisers (at a cuber-distance), share intelligence and impose strict and punishing sanctions against Russia -- even against Vladimir Putin himself, isolating it politically, socially, economically.
So how pressing is the current need to invade Ukraine, to take Kyiv, to gain international disapproval in acquiring a territorial imperative success as a lesson to Baltic nations and others once under the Soviet thrall? Of course that the US. has stationed 8,500 troops on heightened alert is moderately alarming. Troops, however, that will not enter Ukraine in its defence. And what would 8,500 troops accomplish against 100,000; as a countervailing strategy?
NATO announcing "enhanced deterrence and defence" deployment of ships, fighter jets and troops for a show of heightened solidarity. Conviction is there, somewhat lacking in the final step of commitment. Yes, the West is united in its opposition to the perceived plans of Russian dominance over Ukraine, but its methodology of diplomatic pressure and sanction threats as opposed to kinetic response to a military assault cannot be so very reassuring to Ukraine...
Labels: Aggression, Britain, NATO, Russia, Sanctions, Troops, Ukraine, United States
posted by Pieface @ Thursday, January 27, 2022
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