When a Super Power Fizzles: Fall of An Empire

"One of two dangers will arise [from a renegotiation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action JCPOA]."

"Either Iran will feel it can up its aggression, or its enemies will conclude that they have no choice but to take out all Iranian nuclear facilities."

"[The JCPOA] was born in deceit, sold through deception and kept alive by wilful blindness."

Victor Davis Hanson, U.S. historian

"No agreement will stop Iran from its determination to become a nuclear power, and Russia won't enforce the deal."

"The two malign powers will work together to harm American interests around the world."

Editorial, Wall Street Journal

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, U.S. Secretary of State' John Kerry, and European Union High Representative Catherine Ashton meet Sept. 25, 2013 at the Waldorf Astoria in New York.

 

Former U.S. President Barack Obama orchestrated and led the negotiations in 2013 that led to the signing of the 'nuclear agreement' between the UN Security Council, Germany and the EU, (P5+1) and basked in international praise for a diplomatic coup that was presumed to have successfully delayed the Islamic Republic of Iran's striving toward enriching uranium to produce a nuclear arsenal. A generally accepted reality that Iran was steadily and surreptitiously moving toward that goal, which it strenuously denied, claiming the oil-rich nation was seeking alternative sources of civil-use energy.

Iran's neighbours thought differently. Their great unease at the prospect of Iran reaching its goal to possess that dread power to enhance its position as a threat by a non-Arab, Aryan nation, a Shiite theocracy challenging the primacy of the Arab majority Sunni Middle East for greater power and authority, led to its al-Quds division of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps entering war-torn Lebanon

to help form an Iranian proxy terrorist group, Shia Hezbollah.

The JCPOA did nothing whatever to address the IRGC's ongoing recruitment, formation, financial support, training and weapons' supply to Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis, destabilizing the Middle East and beyond. For the most part their malevolence was aimed toward Israel, the Jewish nemesis state installed anew in a solid Islamic geography, despite sectarian-tribal antipathies.

The Arab states know they too are targets of an ascendant Iran.

In the current Biden presidential political environment backgrounded by Barack Obama's legacy project, former allies of the United States see themselves abandoned by a disinterested power that once dominated the Middle East. An administration that is determined to proceed with reconstituting that abrogated nuclear agreement that favours Iran and distances the Sunni-majority Arab states. and Israel.

The tail has always wagged this dog, Iran moving the guideposts by clever maneuvering. 

This time around, Tehran refused to negotiate directly with the United States, the "Great Satan", which stood back and though it has been responsible for moving renewed talks forward, agreed that Russian diplomats could negotiate directly with Tehran's negotiators on behalf of the same actors who signed the original agreement. Now that Moscow has invaded Ukraine and brought war to Europe, matters became even more complicated.

Russia and China, both involved with Iran, with its nuclear installations, and aiding Iran in evading sanctions lead the negotiations. Should a new agreement be signed, sanctions against Iran would be set aside so it can sell its oil freely, reconnecting it to the global financial system for a temporary restriction on enriching uranium and centrifuge testing. The IAEA nuclear watchdog is not convinced it will be given full monitoring access; a return to the previous agreement when critical military sites had been  deemed off limits.

Iran's demands for sanction relief, its demand that the Revolutionary Guard Corps be removed from America's terrorist blacklist has seen a backlash in Congress that President Biden must deal with. Israel denounced that demand by Tehran as representing "an insult to the victims" of the nefarious actions leading to terrorist attacks and the deaths of innocents, on the part of the IRGC. The expectation is that should the agreement be signed and Iran achieve its breakthrough, Israel alone would be forced to react.

A signed agreement would favour Iran in released billions, and relaxed sanctions. It would be to Russia's benefit to buy enriched uranium from Iran and sell it two nuclear reactors for billions, effectively helping to fund its war in Ukraine. Achieved through the sole world power that has chosen to take a back seat internationally, effectively abandoning its former role as global sheriff coming to the defence of the vulnerable against the predations of tyrants. 

 

Granted, those occasions when American power chose to make common cause with dictators sullied its opinion of itself in concert with its detractors.

As the two key players have returned to the negotiating table, it seems that it has become even more difficult for them to see eye to eye   Observer Research Foundation