Tuesday, September 01, 2026

Asymmetrical Warfare

"This is making the missile the preeminent weapon of the 21st century, with the potential to undermine deterrence and stability."
"[Warfare followed a simple physical law: The further you fired your projectile, the less accurate it became. Overcoming distance was a problem supplanted by the solution of] mass and energy."
"Now, wars are won by information."
"[These new technologies allow] the many and the small -- ] Iranians, Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas -- ] to slip the heavy punches of their opponents, because they are well hidden and can strike back with accurate blows of their own." 
Professor emeritus of defense analysis U.S. Naval Postgraduate School 
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David vs. Goliath: Cost Asymmetry in Warfare   Photo by parilov/Adobe Stock
  
Disparity in Power: At its core, asymmetric warfare hinges on a significant imbalance in military strength. The weaker side, lacking the resources and conventional military might of a state actor, must innovate and adapt unconventional strategies to level the playing field.
Unconventional Tactics: Guerrilla warfare, ambushes, sabotage, and terrorism are quintessential tactics of asymmetric warfare. These methods aim to maximize damage to the stronger force while minimizing losses for the weaker side, showcasing the ingenuity and resourcefulness of asymmetric actors.
Blurred Lines: Asymmetric warfare often blurs the distinction between combatants and civilians. Insurgents may operate within civilian populations, making it challenging for the stronger force to discern between military targets and innocent bystanders, complicating the ethical and strategic dimensions of conflict.
Terrorism: In the arsenal of weaker actors facing off against more potent adversaries, terrorism emerges as a potent tool for disrupting stability and exerting influence. Characterized by its asymmetrical nature, terrorism encompasses a spectrum of violent acts aimed at civilian populations or non-combatant targets, leveraging fear and intimidation to achieve political, ideological, or strategic objectives. Whether through bombings, shootings, or cyberattacks, terrorist groups exploit vulnerabilities in security systems to inflict disproportionate harm and sow chaos. Strategically employed, terrorism aims to erode the morale of the adversary, undermine confidence in government institutions, and provoke reactions that may inadvertently galvanize support for the terrorist cause. As such, terrorism remains a defining feature of asymmetric warfare, presenting complex challenges for security and counterterrorism efforts on a global scale.
Hamas and Hezbollah serve as prominent examples of non-state actors engaged in proxy warfare against Israel, receiving support from Iran. Employing rocket attacks and other unconventional tactics, these groups highlight the intricate interplay between asymmetric and proxy warfare in the region, further complicating conflict dynamics.  
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It was a strike of genius, a scheme whose planning was exquisite in nature, secretive and ultimately successful catching the enemy -- in this case Hezbollah -- off guard when on September 17 and 18 of 2024 pagers and other handheld electronic devices used by members of the terror group, their fighters, officers, medics and civilian supporters became victims when Israel detonated them in a surprise attack that did not require the presence of IDF soldiers. Dozens were killed by the surprise explosions and an estimated 3,000 wounded. Altogether some 1,500 Hezbollah fighters put out of business due to their injuries.
 
A fairly small quantity of explosives cunningly lay in wait for the unsuspecting users of those handheld electronic communication devices. They were remotely ignored on schedule. It took but a few hours for Israel's scheme to demoralize an implacable enemy when a significant number of Hezbollah fighters were killed and wounded. The scheme's success owed to vital information that afforded Israel that rare one-time opportunity. Knowledge of how, where and when to strike for the greatest impact. Low-tech allied with clever manipulation of physical resources and knowledge of the enemy. 
 
People gather as smoke rises from a mobile shop in Sidon
People gather as smoke rises from a mobile shop in Sidon, Lebanon September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Hassan Hankir
 
Israel,  however, is not the only entity that is making great use of the supreme utility of information/intelligence and low-cost technology in a combination that frustrates and demoralizes an enemy while allowing the users to make the gains of time and stalemate. This was not Israel's only venture into that low-key, big-impact type of warfare, confusing and confounding its enemies. In February, Israel acting with U.S. intelligence snuffed out over 40 senior Iranian leaders at a high-level meeting where they gathered in a single Tehran compound. Iran's national security elite wiped out with one accurately-aimed airstrike.
 
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Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Tehran, Iran, on February 28, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Reuters
 
This was followed by the Iranian regime's own cunning plan to undercut the American victory that had levelled its airports, destroyed its seaports, smashed its political/military infrastructure, left it leaderless, the elite commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps decimated, but not without canny intellectual resources that conspired to unsettle the globe when it closed off the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and relentlessly bombed surrounding Arab/Muslim countries that allowed their territory to house American military outposts. 
 
Long under economic sanctions Iran still was able to develop a massive arsenal of missiles and drones, with a little help from its friends in China and Russia to gain more sophisticated technology. Its fairly inexpensive missiles and drones saw it fighting back at Israel and the United States, while inflicting some considerable damage to U.S. assets in the region. The U.S. aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln with its almost 5,700 personnel found itself under duress of restocking supplies when Iranian missiles and attack drones destroyed the Bahrain-based American supply base. 
 
That coup was followed up with an Iranian missile destroying a $500-million radar operating a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system at a U.S. air base in Jordan signalling "a potentially transformative moment" in the "strategic contest" between Iran and the United States and Israel according to the Defence Security Asia journal. The IRGC sent their missile to strike the THAAD radar system maneuvering it in flight for a flanking attack on the radar striking it at a vulnerable angle, after having evaded detection and interception.
 
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Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, Aug. 31, 2026.
Stringer | Reuters
 

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Tuesday, August 11, 2026

One for All, and All for One! Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Alliance

"[Joint statement announcing the signing of the] Mecca Joint Defence Agreement."
"[A] shared commitment to further strengthening collective security and to promoting peace, security and stability in the region and beyond."
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan 
 
"The agreement does not represent an effort to establish a military axis or a sectarian bloc."
"Nor is it linked to any nuclear ambitions or arms race. Rather it is focused on building sustainable capabilities."
"[The agreement] does not constitute a threat to the security of any country in the region."
Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly 
 
"[The alignment] is clearly oriented toward Iran and meant to address Iran's new strategic approach which is geared toward dominance of the broader Gulf region."
"[The fact that Turkey and Pakistan border Iran means they could exercise a different kind of leverage [on Tehran]."
Umar Karim, Saudi foreign policy expert, University of Birmingham, England
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif sign a trilateral joint defense agreement Friday in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.  Murat Cetinmuhurdar / Anadolu via Getty Images
 
What an alliance. Saudi Arabia, the keeper of the holiest site in Islam; Mecca. Turkey, with its second-largest military within the membership of the North American Treaty Organization. And Pakistan, the sole Islamic country that possesses nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has been confronted by Iran over its custodianship of Mecca. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, should it be attacked by a regional antagonist like Iran, would that bring the NATO alliance into conflict to protect one of its members? As a nuclear power, Pakistan is not exactly the most stable of countries, beset by its own version of the Taliban. 
 
What an alliance of insecure, tribal, sectarian, ancient-antipathies-alive-to-the-present we have here. A trifecta of genuine Islamist Sunni states prepared to confront the Iranian Shi'ite Axis of 'Resistance'. Mind, they do have a lot in common. Each of those Sunni nations view the presence of a Jewish state in the Middle East as a grave offence against Islam's most sacred concept, that land once consecrated to Islam can never return to the aegis of another religion. Never mind that Judean ancestral heritage long predated the appearance of Islam by millennia.
 
As though to emphasize that the Sunni alliance is meant for the promotion of peace and stability in the region, only a few days earlier, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, stated that his country considers that "Israel is a threat to the entire Muslim world", calling for "a united military front" against it, just a day after Pakistan signed the joint defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. "In the context of Israel, all Muslim countries must unite. I have no doubt about this" said Asif.
 
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Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis attacked a Saudi Aramco refinery on Sunday, two days after Saudi Arabia forged a defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan. The alliance pledges mutual defense, which means an armed attack on any one member counts as an attack on all. But after Sunday’s attack, it was not immediately clear whether Turkey or Pakistan would respond.  Democracy Now
 
Not to be outdone by Pakistan, Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan always has an opinion about Israel, with his opinions anything but friendly in the least, despite his sanctimonious statements in support of peace and stability in the region. Obviously peace and stability does not include Israel's presence. The champion of Hamas who celebrates the terrorist group's role in 'resistance', claims that Turkey feels threatened by Israel's attacks on Syria and Lebanon. In the former event, protecting the Syrian Druze community against deadly aggression, and in the latter, fighting back against Hezbollah terrorists sending rockets into Israeli communities in the Golan.
 
But for Erdogan it is Israel that is at fault for "aggression" that poses a threat to the world, and must be stopped. "If the Israeli thuggery is not stopped, the consequences will be borne by the entire region and all of humanity", Erdogan thundered in Turkey's parliament. "Israel must be stopped; this is the duty of humanity and the humanitarian front. History must not be allowed to repeat itself", he righteously spouted.
 
And as though modelled on NATO, the foreign ministry of Pakistan explained the pact would recognize that an attack on any member would be regarded as an attack on all; a rule that was "intended to strengthen collective deterrence". One, however, "not aimed at any particular country"
 
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This image taken from video broadcast by Al-Masirah TV, a Houthi-controlled news channel, shows an explosion at the Sanaa International Airport compound during what the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said were several Saudi airstrikes in Sanaa, Yemen, July 13, 2026. (Al-Masirah TV via AP)
 
Saudi Arabia is being attacked anew by the Houthis in Yemen. That terrorist group is yet another Iranian proxy, doing the work for the Islamic Republic, the head of the snake that calls itself the Axis of Resistance. Yet that attack has gone unaddressed by this new coalition. Saudi Arabia has responded to the Houthi attacks by counterattacking them, and not the source of their orders, which is Iran. Iran is the sole source responsible for the agitation, fear and absolute instability wracking the region.
 
Yet the regional powers that have been targeted by the Islamic Republican Guard Corps that really run the country now, while seeking to protect themselves and their geographic installations from the destructive Iranian missiles and drones sent their way, fail repeatedly to go on the offensive and counter-attack, putting an end to decades of insecurity wrought by Shi'ite Iran in its deliberate goal to entirely destabilize the region and ensconce itself as the Persian uber-nation in control of the Arab Sunni Middle East.  
"Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are not trying to replace the United States. They are building the capacity to protect their interests when Washington cannot or will not do so."
"[Riyadh, in particular], wants several layers of security rather than one American umbrella [following the shock of the Iran war]."
Andreas Krieg, King's College London 
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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, accompanied by their ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defence, pose after signing a joint defence agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7, 2026. Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS

 

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Thursday, August 06, 2026

The 'Unnoticed' Presence of Islamist Terror Groups in Canada

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Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre
"Those allegations [accusations of paramilitary group Kata'ib Hezbollah linked to the IRGC] include two attacks here in Canada; the March 10 shooting at the United States consulate in Toronto and an attack against a Canadian synagogue."
"He [Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi] also allegedly said he was running multiple teams and sought help carrying out further attacks against Jewish and other targets in Canada and the United States." 
"There is no justification for the delay [in placing the group with Canada's terrorist list]."
"Jewish Canadians have watched their synagogues, schools and businesses targeted by shootings, vandalism, firebombings and threats."
"Iranian Canadians who escaped the brutality of the Islamic Republic have faced surveillance, harassment and intimidation from the same regime on Canadian soil." 
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, Parliamentary opposition
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Counter-rally against the Al-Quds day event in Toronto  The Hub
 
The Liberal government of Canada -- under both prime ministers Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney -- has failed to stem the duress under which Canadian Jews have found themselves over the past three years, assailed verbally and physically, threatened and slandered by 'pro-Palestinian' groups in Canadian society led by Palestinian student groups supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran and funded by Qatar. Led by the fundamentalist Islamist focus on jihad. This is a jihad that penetrates Western society through sanctimoniously disingenuous diplomacy that government cannot see through, and the violent jihad of the terrorist battlefield. 
 
While moderate Islamic governments in the Middle East recognize the Muslim Brotherhood and its many offshoots and associates for the threat they represent not only to the West but to their own governance and security, and have taken steps to outlaw it, the West is amenable to its presence, its infiltration through ingratiating itself as a reasonable, moderate representative of Islam to be respected and heeded as a portal to understanding and welcoming the presence of inordinate numbers of Muslims through immigration, refugee intake and migrant presence. 
 
The little-recognized presence of terrorist groups within Western society working to undermine democracy and to silence critics and opponents present the other side of penetrative jihad. These groups, like the members of the Islamic Republican Guard Corps whose presence in Canada affront and concern Canadian Iranians who fled their brutal dictatorial rule in Iran, operate with impunity, with little-to-no 'notice' taken of the menace they represent, by Canada's Liberal government.
 
Opposition Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pointed out to Canada's Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree through a letter, that American authorities arrested Mohammad Baqer Saad Daewood Al-Saadi, senior commander of Kata'ib Hezbollah, accused of coordinating dozens of attempted and completed terrorist attacks in Europe and North America. 
 
Founded in 2007, Kata'ib Hezbollah, according to the office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, has some 7,000 to 10,000 members. They operate primarily in Iraq with a purported presence in Bahrain, Iran, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. They were listed in 2009 as a terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department. Mr. Poilievre asked the Minister of Safety to investigate whether operatives for the group have established networks in Canada. To further investigate linkages between Iranian terrorist proxies and organized crime. 
 
Further, that it be disclosed the number of operatives connected to the Iranian regime and its proxies that have been identified, denied entry, investigated, detained or removed from Canada. Previously Minister Anandasangaree, pressed by the opposition why the government had deported only one Iranian official from among the dozens known to be present in Canada, the minister cited a requirement to follow due process, to explain the delay. The reality is that of 24 individuals identified as former IRGC officials, one only has been deported.
 
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Iran-Inspired Al-Quds Day rally in Toronto    The Hub
 
The Liberals have failed to enforce Canada’s terrorist laws with the urgency and strength Canadians expect. Parliament did not list terrorist entities merely to put their names on a government website. Canadians expect their laws to be enforced to the fullest extent: terrorist assets frozen and seized, financing networks dismantled, and operatives stopped at the border or removed from the country. Yet Canadians have seen little evidence of serious enforcement against the IRGC and other listed terrorist groups threatening our people, our communities and our national interests. A terrorist listing is only as strong as the action that follows it.
Jewish Canadians have watched their synagogues, schools and businesses targeted by shootings, vandalism, firebombings and threats. Iranian Canadians who escaped the brutality of the Islamic Republic have faced surveillance, harassment and intimidation from the same regime on Canadian soil.
A year-long Global News investigation reported that upwards of 700 Iranian regime-linked associates were operating in Canada and threatening the lives of Canadians. The RCMP subsequently acknowledged receiving reports of foreign interference committed by, or at the direction of, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Canadians deserve to know who these individuals are, how they entered Canada and what your government is doing to remove those who pose a threat.
The IRGC was finally listed as a terrorist entity only after years of pressure from Conservatives. Even now, your government has been unable to tell Canadians how many IRGC operatives have been identified, denied entry or removed from the country.
Listing the parent organization means little if its commanders, proxies, financiers and hired criminals remain free to operate here.

You must therefore:

  • Immediately list Kata’ib Hezbollah as a terrorist entity under the Criminal Code;
  • Investigate whether its members, operatives, facilitators or financial networks are operating in Canada;
  • Disclose how many individuals connected to the Iranian regime and its proxies have been identified, denied entry, investigated, detained or removed;
  • Investigate and disclose any known links between Iranian terrorist proxies and organized crime in Canada; and
  • Explain what action Canadian authorities are taking in response to the alleged Kata’ib Hezbollah-directed attacks in Toronto.
Canada must be a safe haven for Canadians, not for the terrorists, agents and proxies sent to silence the victims of the Iranian regime.
Canadians must be free to worship without fear of gunfire. Iranian Canadians must be free to oppose the regime without facing its enforcers here at home. All Canadians deserve a government that stops terrorists before they attack rather than making excuses after the damage is done.
Conservative Party of Canada  
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Protesters and counter-protesters demonstrate by the U.S. Consulate during a rally for Al-Quds Day in Toronto, on Saturday, March 14, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sammy Kogan
 

 

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Monday, July 13, 2026

Death To America -- One Ship At A Time

"The United States is imposing a heavy cost by continuing to degrade Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the strait."
"[A Cyprus-flagged container ship was hit by Iran and suffered] significant engine room damage [and a civilian crew member is missing]."
U.S. Central Command 
 
"[Multiple vessels] disregarded our warnings and instructions to correct their course and proceed along the approved route. [One of them] was struck by a warning shot and brought to a stop."
"[The strait will remain closed] until further notice. We will consider targeting] additional enemy bases in the region [should more attacks take place]."
Revolutionary Guards Corps 
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The global community has considered the Hormuz Strait to be an international waterway for as long as most shippers could recall. The Islamic Republic, which with Oman sits closest to the strait now feels entitled to proclaim that the strait is under its control. That being the case it is their prerogative to charge ships moving through the strait. The United States, on the other hand, has urged mariners to transit a southern route through the territorial waters of Oman.
 
The IRGC has discussed the situation with Oman, a long-time supporter of the Islamic Republic, to convince its neighbour that they should both be exacting transit fees from ships transiting each 'their' side of the waterway, treating it as a legitimate commercial enterprise to benefit each country. Oman has stated that it and Iran have agreed to continue discussions on the Strait of Hormuz "at the technical and political levels".
 
A statement confirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi who had himself stated prior to the new round of strikes -- with the United States and Iran once again blaming each other for stepping away from the Memorandum of Understanding that was to have led to a cessation of kinetic hostilities -- that he had met with his Oman counterpart to discuss "appropriate mechanisms for ensuring the safe passage of ships".
 
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Vessels navigate the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on Wednesday. (Reuters)
 
For the present, Iran has announced the closure once more of the Strait of Hormuz, following a warning shot fired by its military that struck a vessel that it claimed was making use of an 'unauthorized' route through the waterway, jeopardizing the fragile ceasefire agreement with the United States. It took little time for the United States to respond, when U.S. Central Command announced its forces had re-initiated a third round of strikes against Iran. 
 
Explosions took place in Bandar Abbas and Sirik, two towns along the shores of the strait. Negotiations to further cement last month's agreement to end the war will now have its progress halted without securing the strait, according to senior U.S. officials in Washington. With Iran's notification that it had closed the strait again to shipping, the U.S. announced its new strike rounds.
 
"Iran made a poor choice Now they pay", stated Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth on social media. Iran and Oman's foreign ministers Saturday meeting to discuss the strait that intersects their shores after days of Iranian attacks on ships and U.S. retaliation dealing a blow to the interim deal to end the war precipitated the latest flurry of shots from both sides.
 
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A man holds a poster of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a gathering commemorating him at a square in Tehran on Saturday.Vahid Salemi/AP

Still unseen in public since February's first aerial bombardment by the U.S. and Israel of Iran's targeted leaders, its nuclear installations and weapons depots, Iran's new supreme leader's first statement since his father's funeral was Iran's intention to avenge the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei's statement carried on state television hours following U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of continued missile attacks was that such revenge "is the will of our nation and must certainly be carried out".  
"We pledge to avenge the blood of the martyred leader and all the martyrs of these two wars from the criminal and disgraced killers."
"This vengeance is the will of our nation and must inevitably be carried out. These criminals — of whom we have a complete list from top to bottom — will take with them to their graves the wish for a peaceful death in bed."
"This matter depends neither on my personal existence nor on that of other officials. Whether we are present or not, it will come to pass. Soon individuals among the freedom-seekers across the world will each carry out part of this divine mission."
Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei  
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A Hezbollah supporter flashes a victory sign while holding a poster of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei during a gathering against the US-Israeli military operation with Iran and its allies in Dahiyeh, Lebanon, Wednesday, June 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
 

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Saturday, July 11, 2026

The Intransigent, Defiant, Deadly Islamic Republic

"They asked for a time out [from military action]. They wanted to go to the funeral of Khamenei. And I said, ‘Give it to them.’ And they started shooting missiles. I mean, it was the craziest thing."
"I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum. You know what scum is? They’re scum. They’re sick people. They’re led by sick people and they’re vicious, violent people. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over."
"They’re liars. If I make a deal with them, we have a deal. And he [the Iranian negotiator] goes out, he talks. We make a deal, everyone’s agreed: no nuclear weapon. We make a deal, they [the Iranian delegation] go outside, talk to the press, and they say, ‘We never even talked about it.’ There’s something wrong with them. They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over."
U.S. President Donald Trump
 
 
On again, off again. Decisions made spontaneously reflecting an impulsive of-the-moment thought process, leavened with emotional irritation. An incendiary situation whose outcome is vital to the well-being not only of the population of the Islamic Republic who have suffered since 1979 under the theocratic rule of a totalitarian state imposing its will, meting out imprisonment, torture and death to all who oppose it. And to the larger community inhabiting the Middle East, as the source of inciting to terrorism through sponsorship of select militias whose formation is vital to the regime's agenda of conquest where the al-Quds branch of the Islamic Republican Guard Corps recruited, trained, armed and  tasked them as proxy militias to carry out its death-cult orders.
 
From Hezbollah to Hamas to Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Iraqi Shia militias all loyal to the regime, the noose tightened not only on Israel, marked for annihilation by the Ayatollahs, but Sunni-majority countries in the region as well; not for annihilation but the conquest of domination. Its weapons' focus as a means to assert its dominance through technological means with missiles and drones, and aspirationally, a nuclear program to allow the Iranian regime to wield the most fearful of all weapons to achieve its goals.
 
Iran Illustration 
 
Upended briefly and temporarily when joint aerial strikes by Israel and the United States complicated those plans by assassinating through pinpoint, intelligence-gathered strikes, military commanders, religious figures, including the most senior  cleric whose direct messaging from above moved the strings of the dread and powerful IRGC puppets to action along with nuclear scientists, and strategic strikes on nuclear sites and weapons depots. Any other country would reel from the strength of those blows, but not Iran.
 
It had only months earlier destroyed the lives of thousands of its disaffected people whose effrontery  in massing by the tens of thousands in street demonstrations throughout the country to demand an end to the regime, and the right to live as free people, enjoying liberty as a human right, refusing the straitjackets of passivity in fear of consequences. Their punishment by state police, the Basij and the  Iranian military was swift, decisive and deadly. Battling military-to-military of two well-armed attacking countries required another tack; the manipulation of circumstances and in this case cutting off global shipping to inflict pain internationally. 
"They want recognition of Iran basically having control of the Strait of Hormuz. That is their bottom line. That is their leverage with the United States and the West that has replaced earlier enriching higher and higher levels of uranium."
"Fundamentally, they think time is on their side. They can suffer more than the Americans and the Gulf and that's what they're gambling on."
Alex Vatanka, senior fellow, Middle East Institute 
The Strait of Hormuz became the winning move for Iran in this chess game of a war. Following the February 28-initiated strikes on Iran, since April 8, President Trump declared one ceasefire initiative with Iran after another as oil prices gushed skyward and Washington grappled with the dilemma of lifting itself out of a quagmire it had no stomach to pursue, in a war that proved hugely unpopular with American voters. This was a president who had given the impression that he meant what he said; no more U.S. troops involved in endless MidEast wars.
 
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Instead, Mr. Trump had to focus on the measure that Iran took to disrupt world energy supplies, along with fertilizer and other critical supplies to a dependent world. Any tankers or cargo ships leaving the Gulf States for their usual destinations crossing through the Strait risked Iranian drones or missiles and before long ships one after another were stranded awaiting an opportunity that never came. Then came the system of fees inaugurated by the IRGC for safe passage. Followed by negotiations and a Memo of Understanding and the war footing went limp, all in abeyance.
 
While the U.S. administration faces the democratic anger of its population persuading it to leaven its actions accordingly, no such constraints face the Islamic Republic, for its population is forcibly mute and as much as it detests its government, the fear, anger and resentment of up to 35,000 lives destroyed only a few months ago, acts as an anchor to further action against a government that will not be dislodged. The Islamic regime has decided to wait things out. Until enough pressure from the U.S. public and the international community against a continuation of the war, forces the U.S. military to withdraw. 
 
US Vice President JD Vance speaks to members of the media before boarding Air Force Two, after the US and Iran held high-level talks at the Lake Lucerne Summit, at Emmen Military Air Base, Emmen, Switzerland, June 22, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Nathan Howard/Pool
 
"Iran is trying to avoid another full-scale war. But it also believes that failing to respond caries its own risks because it would project weakness and invite further pressure."
"Iran's calculation is that calibrated, limited escalation can restore deterrence without crossing the threshhold into all-out war."
Negar Nirtazavi, senior fellow, Center for International Policy 
   

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Friday, June 19, 2026

In Defiance of Trump's Deal -- Israel's Survival

"[Iranian officials pushed to include a clause in the interim agreement finalized earlier this week requiring Israel to leave] the security zone in Lebanon."
"The prime minister said to the U.S. President: 'We understand the concerns, but this is a critical issue for our national security and we won't pull out'."
Zev Elkin, security cabinet member, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ally 
A man rides a scooter past a giant billboard that shows the former Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, center, and his son, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, with Arabic writing that reads: "Thank you Iran," in Dahiyeh, Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon, June 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
June 18: Khamenei okays MOU in written statement, says talks with US do ‘not mean accepting its views’
 
The agreement reached between the United States and Iran had no input from Israel. This, despite that the aerial attacks launched on February 28 on the Islamic Republic was a joint enterprise shared by both Israel and the United States in a unified stance against the Iranian regime ever breaking the barrier toward achieving nuclear weaponry through its stealth uranium enrichment enterprise. That partnership broke down when Israel was excluded from negotiations carried on between Pakistan and Qatar as intermediaries between the U.S. and Iran, to achieve a ceasefire deal and end to the conflict.
 
And because Israel was not a member of the negotiations -- even though any such arrangement as was negotiated based on Iran's 'word of honour' that it had no intention of achieving nuclear arms, even while it threatened to destroy Israel, and its terrorist militias, Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the Yemeni Houthis were all delegated by Iran to take part in a pincer-movement of destroying Israel -- there was no expectation incumbent upon Israel to heed any of the conditions it felt to be inimical to its own survival.
 
President Trump made no secret of his disapproval of Israel's ongoing incursion into southern Lebanon, the stronghold of the Hezbollah-Lebanese terrorist group whose rockets continued to rain down on Israel at the behest of Iran whose proxies tend to respond to commands from the Shiite Islamist fundamentalist state that have been formed, trained and armed by the al Quds arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the power behind the Ayatollahs' throne of command.
 
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Trump insists Iran deal will open Strait of Hormuz 'toll-free' as he meets world leaders  BBC News
 
That being so, Israel did not appear to hesitate when rejecting the U.S. request to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, not as long as Hezbollah controlled Lebanon, despite the complications that ensued between the 'partnership' of Israel/U.S. defense coalition. The U.S./Iran agreed-upon interim deal stipulates hostilities must ease on all fronts, including -- at Iran's insistence -- in Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting a parallel war ever since Hezbollah attacked Israel in response to the joint attack on Iran. 
 
President Trump's dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Netanyahu's ongoing commitment in the face of Israeli security challenged by Iran's proxies and Iran itself, to continue its defensive offences has been publicly stated much to Israel's chagrin; re-stated more emphatically by Vice-President JD Vance in fairly offensive terms verging as close to rabid antisemitism as conceivable, helping to shake Israeli confidence in steadfast American support for Israel's survival.
 
On the other hand, a senior U.S. official stated that Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon did not represent a condition of the deal; that Israel, in the opinion of the U.S. administration has the right to respond to any attacks by Hezbollah. Scathing condemnation from JD Vance, aside, which assurances is Israel to pin its decision-making upon? Grin and bear Mr. Trump's truculent insults, and turn aside from his vice's commentary, or put stock in what other Trump officials interpret...?
 
Israel has committed to destroying Hezbollah's capacity to continue lobbing rockets and drones into Israeli territory. So it continues to forge deeper into southern Lebanon, to oust Hezbollah from its perch there. In discussions with the Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Israel has assured him that any territory it clears of Hezbollah's threatening presence, while degrading its weaponry stockpiles and eliminating its leaders, will be turned over to the Lebanese National Army, in 'pilot' zones.
 
Lebanon's President Aoun has accused Tehran of using Lebanon as a bargaining chip. The Hezbollah drone incursions led Israel to bomb Beirut on June 14, enraging President Trump. As insurance, Israel now focuses on new means whereby it can neutralize the threat the drones pose, hoping to be able to sidetrack responses that would once again raise tensions with Washington. According to PM Netanyahu, Hezbollah's pre-war arsenal of 150,000 rockets have been reduced to 12,000; still capable of more than ample damage.  
 
A plume of smoke rises above a village.https://images.theconversation.com/files/742711/original/file-20260618-71-t4n9mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C2000&q=75&auto=format&w=768&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 
 Smoke rises from Israeli bombardment near the village of Kfar Tibnit in southern Lebanon on June 14, 2026. AFP via Getty Images


 

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Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Canadian Hypocrisy at the United Nations

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Canada’s misleading denial that it nominated Iran to UN body addressing women’s rights & terror prevention   UN Watch
 
"There have been incorrect reports on social media about Canada’s position on the nomination of Iran to the United Nations Economic and Social Council Committee for Programme and Coordination – an advisory body with no decision-making role. Iran was nominated as part of the Asia-Pacific Group."
"Canada is not a member of the group and did not endorse or vote for this nomination. There was no vote, as per established procedures."
"Canada does not support Iran for positions of influence within the United Nations. We will continue to actively work with partners to counter Iranian candidacies."
Global Affairs, Canada  
 
"Canada’s foreign ministry made a misleading statement on X.com to mask the fact it allowed the nomination of the Islamic Republic of Iran to a UN committee that addresses critical issues including women’s rights and terrorism prevention — failing to object as the US did, and as Canada and EU states have done in the past."
"The fact is that Canada, as a member of the 54-nation UN Economic and Social Council, participated in the consensus nomination of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the UN Committee for Programme and Coordination on April 8, 2026."
"This committee deals with budget priorities and program coordination on critical issues, and will meet soon, May 14-21, to address women’s rights, human rights, and terrorism prevention."
"At a minimum, Canada should have taken the floor to object that it is wrong to nominate a regime that only months ago massacred thousands of protesters, and that brutally oppresses women, tortures political prisoners, and systematically violates basic human rights."
"This is exactly what the United States did in that meeting. It was the only country that formally objected and disassociated itself from the consensus decision, citing Iran’s appalling record on women’s rights.
Canada and other Western democracies, however, remained silent and allowed the consensus to pass in ECOSOC, a body of which Canada is a member."
UN Watch
 
"The United States disassociates from consensus on the nomination of Iran to the Committee on Program and Co-ordination."
"The regime threatens its neighbours and has for decades infringed on the Iranian people's ability to exercise their basic human rights."
"Due to these and other concerns, we believe Iran is unfit to serve on a body advising member states on program and budgetary matters."
U.S. Ambassador Dan Negrea 
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The Security Council chamber at the United Nation in New York City. Photo by Spencer Platt /Getty Images
 
Canada obligingly assisted  in the approval of a motion for the Islamic Republic of Iran -- that would be the Iranian regime that just a few months earlier responded to nation-wide protests against the regime by dispatching police, the IRGC and Basij to violently disband the protests by all and any means, leading to the killing of an estimated 30,000 Iranians and the arrests and death sentences of untold numbers of 'enemies of the Islamic Republic' -- to a position on the UN's Committee for Program and Coordination.
 
Iranian-Canadians who desperately wish for the Ayatollah-led, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-enforced Republic to fall, and yearn for the freedom from oppression that would mean for their families in Iran, would have reacted to the news of this incredible betrayal with disbelief. While at the same time, the infiltrated members of the regime and the IRGC that have made a home for themselves in Canada would have beamed with pleasure. Just as Hamas has on occasion congratulated the ruling Liberal government for some of its decisions, now the Iranian regime was given the same opportunity.
 
Officially, for internal consumption, the Liberal government of prime minister Mark Carney denied any such reports; that they did no such thing. The actual facts belie that assertion. Canada gave aid and comfort to a regime under the duress of a conflict brought by the State of Israel and the U.S. military launching an aerial war on the regime, its military, the IRGC, their weapons depots and rocket launchers and nuclear sites. While the Iranian regime presents a distinct danger with its nuclear ambitions and its sponsorship of terrorist groups to the world at large and the Middle East in particular, Canada's government calls for a ceasefire so the regime can survive.
 
Canada's decision at the April 8 meeting of the UN Economic and Social Council enables Iran to have an advisory and oversight role on programs as diverse as gender equality and terrorism prevention, as well as 'peaceful uses of outer space'. Global Affairs Canada's insistence that Canada's role in the event has been misunderstood, is an evasive and shameful tactic in a bid to shield the government from the shame and blame it most certainly deserves for betraying the most elemental foundations of human rights against tyrannical rule. 
 
Official video from the UN Economic and Social Council, most recently chaired by Bob Rae, Canada's ambassador to the UN, showed an official chairing a plenary session of the council where the Islamic Republic of Iran was included on a list of countries set to be appointed to a three-year term on the Committee for Program and Co-ordination. With no objections from the representatives of the assembled countries, the officiating individual bangs a gavel and declares: "It is so decided"
 
And Canada helped in that decision; not a word of doubt expressed of the inappropriateness of a corrupt, terror-promoting, nation known for persecuting its own people -- much less its violence visited upon Iranian women who dare to oppose strictures placed upon their most basic of human rights -- sitting on such a committee from Canada.
 
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Screenshot from a UN live stream showing the precise moment that a plenary session of the UN Economic and Social Council approved the nomination of the Islamic Republic of Iran to a UN oversight committee. Photo by UN
 

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Wednesday, April 15, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz

"[Any Iranian warships that come] anywhere close [to the U.S. blockade will be destroyed]."
"We can't let a country blackmail or extort the world because that's what they're doing."
"We [the United States] don't use this strait. We have our own oil and gas, much more than we need."
U.S. President Donald Trump
 
"The entirety of the Iranian coastline, including ports and energy infrastructure [are included in the restrictions]."
"[Transit through the strait] to or from non-Iranian destinations is not reported to be impeded by these measures."
"[However, ships] may encounter military presence [in the strait]." 
Maritime Trade Operations agency
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/e886/live/dd40e1f0-37f8-11f1-9d5c-8ba507d7dbde.png.webp 
 
 On Monday, the U.S. military began a blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas, a tamped-down version of President Trump's previously-expressed intention to block the strategic Strait of Hormuz entirely. Early reports are that ships had stopped crossing the waterway. Mr. Trump has emphasized that safeguarding the strait is of greater concern to Europe and other places around the globe than it is for the United States although none yet have made a move singly or in tandem with others to counter Iran's lock on the strait. 
 
Iran has responded with threats to target ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, just as it has the oil terminals and airports of Gulf countries it considers enemies, pounding them with missiles and drones to an even greater degree than it has been targeting Israel. Its goal appears to be that if enough damage can be done to Iran's neighbours, they will rise against the U.S. and Israel in their joint aerial campaign against the Islamic Republic. 
 
Certainly not on the basis that other Muslim countries would not stand willingly by as a foreign interloper destroys military bases, launching sites, missile depots, and targets Iranian leaders and its IRGC elite for assassination. Iran's neighbours are Arab Muslims and for the most part majority Sunni. Aryan Iran is a Shitte power, its theistic regime has threatened the dominance of its Arab neighbours, none of whom with the exception of Qatar and Oman would mourn the disappearance of the regime's hold on Iran.
 
In its furious death throes the intransigent terrorist state structure has turned against its neighbours, both those that oppose it, and those who have in the past supported it, all of which have now sustained lasting damage to their infrastructure, both civil and oil-producing. Pakistan and Turkey, out of the IRGC's line of fire, but holding Islamist fundamentalist positions not far off from Iran's own, are actioning for a ceasefire to save what is left of the regime, when the entire point of the exercise is to excise it entirely.
 
Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the strait of Hormuz, where the US military says it will enforce a naval blockade on all Iranian ports. Photograph: Altaf Qadri/AP
 
Global markets have been shaken over the lack of movement through the Strait of Hormuz. The now-seven-week conflict has seen thousands of people killed. Tentative ceasefire talks have failed to reach an agreement; unsurprisingly, since Iran's demands are impossible to be met -- essentially insisting that all the reasons that the United States launched its attacks to begin with, from nuclear, to inciting terrorism, to slaughtering its own people, to threatening Middle East stability and beyond, be reinstated, along with an obligation by the U.S. to pay restitution for its strikes.
 
Even in defeat of its continuation to govern, the Islamic Republic publicly celebrates 'victory' over its opponents. The months of non-stop aerial bombing have wrought great damage to Iran's aspirations and very capacity to carry on, but what is left of any authority figures in the radical theocracy still direct the actions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (or vice versa) and the Basij militia, as well as the Shiite militias in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon. 
 
Globally, the impact of basic goods and energy soaring in price has had its negative effect, reflecting the breakdown of traffic through the strait. Analysts are struggling to imagine how the blockage by the U.S. of the strait will work. Whether it will produce too-great economic stress on Iran, or whether if the strait still fails to allow normal traffic, global oil and other items like fertilizer will be driven high enough to force President Trump to change tactics.
 
According to the U.S. military's Central Command, the blockade is to be enforced "against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas", which would include all of Iran's ports on the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Ships travelling between non-Iranian ports would be allowed to transit the strait, on the other hand. 
 
Trump stated that Iran's navy was "laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated" though it still maintains "fast attack ships", warning that "if any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED". To which Iran responded with: "Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE". "NO PORT in the region will be safe", another response from the IRGC warned. Hence the dire need to destroy those 'fast attack ships'. 
 
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Two police officers walk in front of an anti-U.S. billboard depicting American aircraft being caught by Iranian armed forces in a fishing net beneath the words in Farsi, "The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, The entire Persian Gulf is our hunting ground," in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, April 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File) 
 
 
 
 

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Tuesday, April 14, 2026

That Critical Maritime Passage

"Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage and we will share this safe pathway with the maritime industry soon."
"Additional U.S. forces, including underwater drones, will join the clearance effort in the coming days."
U.S. Central Command commander Admiral Brad Cooper 
 
"Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!"
U.S. President Donald J. Trump 
A large military ship sails in the water as a military helicopter flies overhead.

A Navy destroyer in the U.S. Central Command area of operations transits the Strait of Hormuz, April 11, 2026.  Photo: U.S. War Department  

"The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports."
"Additional information will be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade. All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches [per the release]."
Centcom press release  
The U.S. Department of War announced on its website that the USS Frank E. Peterson and the USS Michael Murphy are operating in the Persian Gulf, part of a broader mission to fully clear the Hormuz Strait -- an international sea passage and essential trade corridor -- of sea mines, laid courtesy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Underwater drones, along with  additional American forces, are set to join the clearance project in coming days.
 
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US has deployed two Navy guided-missile destroyers to Hormuz (Representational Image)

"We're sweeping the strait. Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me", said President Trump, even as negotiations between U.S. and Iranian representatives -- alongside a Pakistani mediator -- on a potential ceasefire broke down. The Iranian preconditions were a non-starter, with Israel intent on continuing its strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Iran's continued insistence on its right to continue with its nuclear program, its demand that the U.S. withdraw from bombing Iran and prepare to pay reparations, along with its refusal to put a stop to its support of proxy terrorist groups ensure the talks would go nowhere.

The Islamic Republic's 'red lines' expressed as demand for damage caused by U.S.-Israeli strikes compensation and the release of  Iran's frozen assets, are a reflection of the supreme arrogance of a ruling elite that refuses to acknowledge its position as a bludgeoned theistic hegemon that threatened its neighbours and launched terror attacks by proxy internationally whose beating is its just due for the further threat its nuclear ambition poses to the world at large. 

The country of 93 million people is deserving of relief from the tyranny of a regime that persecutes its own population, using vast oil reserves to fund global terrorism rather than investing in internal infrastructure of benefit to the country's future -- not as a conquering Islamist totalitarian state, but as a responsible government adhering to international norms of human rights standards. That its disregard for and abuse of its female population's right to equal treatment and respect given to their male counterparts is ignored by the United Nations where Iran was recently appointed to a human rights group is cynicism on steroids.

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United Nations General Assembly, UN Watch

The 15-point proposal by the United States includes restrictions on Iran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's 10-point proposal prior to the talks focused on a guaranteed end to the war and control over the Strait of Hormuz, where it plans to collect a maritime passage fee for each ship passing through, amounting to $1 million. An average of 100 to 130 ships passed through the strait daily, prior to the U.S.-Israel joint aerial assaults. 

That toll, if permitted to proceed, despite the deep objections of the other Gulf States that the IRGC has been bombing persistently since February 28, would enable the Islamic Republic to amass an astronomical fortune, far outstripping its revenues up to the conflict derived from its energy products. And all of it would be directed toward restoring its destroyed ballistic missile and drone stocks, along with other military assets that it has lost during the prosecution of the war, including warplanes and warships. 

"An integrated suite of unmanned maritime systems and sensors, the MCM MP counteracts mines in the littorals while increasing the host vessel’s standoff distance from the threat area."
"Embarked with the MCM MP, [a littoral combat ship] or a vessel of opportunity can conduct the full spectrum of detect-to-engage operations (hunt, neutralize, and sweep) against mine threats using sensors and weapons deployed from the MCM Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV), an MH-60S multi-mission helicopter, and associated support equipment."
U.S. Navy, new mine countermeasures mission package
Getty Images

 

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