Intelligence, Action and Rescue Failure in Afghanistan
"While a major assault on the capital is not expected in the near term, officials are monitoring key enablers that are essential to sustaining operations, such as access to medical care, airport services, key infrastructure and fuel.""The embassy is running at reduced capacity and is currently at a 72-hour 'ready to move'[ posture.""Attacks on these cities could begin as early as July 23 [the end of Eid], but more likely after September 11, the official completion date for the drawdown of international forces.""The Afghan government is in a far more precarious state than it was even a month ago and there is now speculation that it could fall in a matter of months."Canadian Intelligence assessment memorandum
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Before the fall of Afghanistan last year intelligence assessments presented to the Liberal government claimed it would be months before the Taliban took Kabul and in all likelihood, weeks before fighting would resume. Those predictions as is well known, proved catastrophic for Afghans whose position being allied with foreign troops and embassies marked them out for special treatment by the Taliban and who were consequently anxious to escape the country to take advantage of promises given them by the foreign governments they worked for in many capacities, primarily as translators.
Access to information gave journalists the opportunity to request a memo circulating weeks before the Taliban marched into Kabul. Intelligence suggested to Canadian officials that the situation, though dire, could take awhile to resolve, while the Afghan army held on to their positions, challenging the Taliban advance in protection of the current government and the capital city. How wrong they were. And why it should have been a surprise that the Afghan National Army capitulated, withdrew as the Taliban advanced should have been no mystery.
While foreign troops were busy for months on end training enlisted Afghan servicemen, reports of the training were replete with sudden desertions, with a stunning disinterest evinced by the trainees, by the casual attitude of the soldiers being trained to a commitment in defence of their country. Foreign trainers of Afghan troops must have been puzzled at the lack of interest and enthusiasm of those they spent their time introducing to modern military methodology. Did no one ask their opinion of the potential collapse of the Afghan military in the face of an advancing enemy whose experience in warfare was formidable?
As the memo stated, the Canadian Embassy was monitoring the situation as it evolved, but officials harboured expectations the embassy would remain operational, while they prepared for the worst-case scenario. The Taliban had already gained control over an estimated 85 percent of the country even while the U.S. and other NATO troops pulled out of the country. Even so, the intelligence report suggested Taliban fighters would wait until September to finalize their advance.
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| Ahmad Malgarai, second from right, says he risked his life for the Canadian military in Afghanistan. His family is now in danger, but Canada has turned its back on him, he says. (Submitted by Ahmad Malgarai) |
Some Canadian immigration programs were underway to ensure that former interpreters and other Afghans who had assisted Canada's mission in Afghanistan, were brought to safety. The memo noted those plans might have to be expanded to accommodate civil society leaders who might also wish to leave impending danger reflecting the Taliban plans to avenge themselves on Afghan collaborators with the West.
In case of an emergency evacuation of the embassy, Canadian Armed Forces held a small team on the ground to facilitate the withdrawal. An evacuation flight for refugees as early as August 14 was targeted by the Canadian Forces, but the Taliban had taken over Kabul by that date. By August 20 Canada managed a first flight, at a time the Kabul airport was chaotic, with thousands of desperate Afghan refugees being left behind' thoroughly bungled.
Most of Canada's allies, other intelligence agencies and analysts including retired Maj-Gen Denis Thompson, believed the Afghan Army would hold the cities for longer than in the final analysis it managed to. The rapid collapse represented a function of leadership failure, a situation that would have been difficult to predict, he says. While the intelligence failure was no one's fault, he and two other former generals, writes Thompson, warned the Liberal government, encouraging it to step up evacuation efforts.
Just over 15,000 Afghans applied under Canada's program for people who helped with its mission, and slightly over 10,000 were approved, while 7,310 have arrived in Canada. Under a special refugee program, the Liberal government pledged to bring 40,000 Afghans to Canada, 17,000 of whom have so far made it to Canada. While others have been disappointed at the lax efforts of immigration officials to speed up the process to rescue their family members languishing in fear back in Kabul.
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| A file photo shows former Afghan interpreters who started a September 2021 hunger strike on Parliament Hill, demanding the federal government move faster to resettle their family members in Canada. Now, four former Afghan language and culture advisers are also asking for help, saying the Taliban is persecuting their families. (Giacomo Panico/CBC) |
"They [Canadian intelligence agencies] would have been totally reliant on what the allies were producing and they would have trusted it just as we have trusted in the past.""The rapid collapse was a surprise to everybody, particularly when you consider how much time and effort we spent in capacity building of the Afghan National Army.""What happened here was a complete failure of the institutional leadership of the Afghan National Army. Something that I don't think any of us would have foreseen.""It's pretty frustrating from our standpoint, because there's still a large number of people there. And we've managed to get about 3,000 people out of Afghanistan, which are those that worked for Canada and their de facto families.""But there's at least well over 10,000 still remaining in the country."Retired Maj.-Gen Denis Thompson, fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute
Labels: Afghanistan, Canada, Intelligence Report, Rescue Promises Afghan Refugees
posted by Pieface @ Thursday, August 25, 2022
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