Sounds Like an Approach to Regional Conflict...

"There must be a U.S. backstop because a U.S. security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again."

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer

 

"Russia is preparing for a long war. They have now three times the manpower and their defence industry is moving quicker than that of Europe."

"Does anybody believe that this is only aimed at Ukraine?"

"What is the use of security guarantees from a weak party? Europe needs to muscle up right now to be actually able to provide security guarantees that will hold."

Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovile Sakaliene

UK PM and French President at 106th anniversary of Armistice Day. Nov2024   AP

In Europe, political and military leaders are busy fleshing out details of a plan for European forces -- on the sidelines of the United States and Russian talks, to which Ukraine has not been invited -- to vigilantly prepare to ensure that Moscow will not attack again. The issue of a united European force is likely to be high on the agenda when U.K. PM Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron visit Washington for talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, next week.

 

The proposed force would only be workable if the U.S. military could be relied upon for backing, and persuading Donald Trump to that opinion will be a difficult proposition. What Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is really invested in is NATO membership to ensure the security guarantee he is looking for. Yet while NATO's European members are fully invested in backing Ukraine in its NATO ambition, it seems the U.S. has no intention of paving the way for Ukraine in NATO.

 

With NATO membership closed off to  him, Zelenskyy feels that over 100,000 European troops would be required to guarantee the conflict will not flare up once more following a ceasefire. According to Western officials what is under discussion is not an army of peacekeepers to be posted along the 1,000 kilometr front line in Ukraine's east, but rather a "reassurance force". Fewer than 30,000 European  troops on the ground in Ukraine, distant from the front line at key infrastructure sites, backed with western air and sea power is what the UK and France envision.

 

The front line would, under the plan, be monitored remotely. Based outside Ukraine, air power would be in reserve for the purpose of deterring breaches and to reopen Ukrainian airspace to commercial flights. Presumably U.S. air power could be included, in the opinion of the U.K.'s Starmer. However, U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth informed European allies "there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine", without completely ruling out U.S. support like air transport or logistics.

 

French President Macron speaks with Ukrainian soldiers at military camp in France, Oct2024  AP

"Different people in the administration are sending different signals ... Who do you believe, is an issue", commented former senior NATO official Jamie Shea. The closest NATO countries in proximity to Russia, the U.K., France, the Nordic and Baltic states, are likely to be assigned the major roles in any such force as is being proposed. Poland, a key logistics base for support to Ukraine since Russia's invasion does not intend to send  troops into Ukraine, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz commented that discussion of a Europe-led security force is "premature", and he was "a little irritated" that peacekeeping forces were being discussed "at the wrong time", insisting NATO, and not an independent European force, must remain the foundation of Ukrainian security. Russia has a fighting force of some 600,000  troops in Ukraine; according to analysts any ceasefire leaving the bulk of that force in place would be a guarantee of renewed conflict.

 

The French military is comprised of just over 200,000 personnel, the U.K.'s fewer than 150,000; Europe would struggle to mount a force of even tens of thousands, according to Matthew Savill, director of military sciences, Royal United Services Institute. 

British PM Keir Starmer speaks to British soldiers at base in Cyprus, Dec.2024   AP