"Europe looks lost. Just last year, here in Davos, I ended my speech with the words: Europe needs to know how to defend itself. A year has passed. And nothing has changed."

"We are still in a situation where I must say the same words again."

"[Ukrainians too seem caught in that reality in the war] repeating the same thing for weeks, months and, of course, for years. And yet that is exactly how we live now. It's our life."

"[Europe] still feels more like a geography, history, a tradition, not a real political force, not a great power."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 

Zelensky said repelling Monday night's attack had cost Ukraine about €80m (£69m) just in terms of air defence missiles  Reuters

 

In Kyiv, close to 3,000 multi-storey residential buildings are without heat. Some 600,000 residents of Kyiv have been evacuated in the wake of Moscow's recent blitz initiated on New Year's Day. This week, roughly 60 percent of the capital city of Ukraine had no electricity during the worst winter in recent years, with temperatures hovering at -10C. Misery lives on in Ukraine. And somehow, Ukrainians muster the endurance to go on. 

 

Ukraine's allies in Europe were treated to a blistering charge of lack of adequate engagement in protecting themselves by not doing more to protect Ukraine. The slow, fragmented, inadequate response to the invasion launched by Russia four years earlier and its ongoing international aggression by daring Europe to do anything about it has finally irked a man with the weight of his responsibilities to the point of exasperation with the very allies he so much depends upon.

Apartment buildings during subzero temperatures in Kyiv on Sunday. Oksana Parafeniuk for NBC News

 

Of course, Ukraine's ultimate fate also illustrates the potential of greater Europe's in the crosshairs of Vladimir Putin whose thirst for territorial gain will not be entirely quenched by an eventual success in looting territory from its neighbour. NATO and the European Union have thus far shown themselves to be less than fully engaged in rescuing one of their own -- if not in membership, then in solidarity with a sovereign nation aspiring to be one among them.

 

He had previously met once again privately with U.S. President Donald Trump in Davis. "Very good" talks, "Productive and meaningful", said Mr. Zelenskyy. And that could mean anything. It could mean that some hope still lies from that direction, and it could be a lie, to prevent his European allies from resigning themselves completely to surrendering all hope that slender threads remain before Ukraine is completely engulfed and their materiel aid has been for naught -- and  some among them are next in the lineup.

 

The financial, military and humanitarian support for Kyiv has been substantial, but against a much larger, better equipped military force, valiant Ukraine seems set for heavier territorial losses yet to come. Not all members of the 27-nation alliance are in support of Ukraine to be sure, but those that are can visualize their own sovereignty at risk, particularly those within the realm of Russia's unfortunate 'near abroad', the Baltic, Poland and the Nordic states. 

 

Sweden's security service said Russia's activities were mainly aimed at undermining Nato cohesion Getty Images

 

Since its February 2022 full invasion of  Ukraine, following initial kinetic hostilities in 2014, that gained Russia the annexation of Crimea, Russia has captured about 20 percent of Ukraine to the present. The 1,000-kilometre front line battles have still been an expensive gamble for the Kremlin with the Russian economy teetering under international sanctions, along with the cost of its invasion both in personnel and military hardware. 

 

Ukraine has proven adept in producing munitions of its own, in particular its drone manufacturing, but its need for financial aid from its allies is ongoing, as well as its dependence on Europe to continue providing it with the military weapons it so desperately ein need of to continue countering Russian advances; all the more so with its looming shortage of military operatives. 

 

Europe, Mr. Zelenskyy charged, has been too lax in acting on key decisions. It has spent too frugally on defence. Russia's 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers, breaking international sanctions have not been impeded as required. Worse, a consensus of agreement has not been reached for Russia's frozen assets to be used for finance Ukraine's battle for existence and eventual reconstruction. 

 

The world's attention, pivoting from Gaza and now to Iran has not been helpful in keeping Ukraine's plight under ongoing Russian attack front and centre, given a boost when President Trump began favouring Putin's war front over Ukraine's defense, which has now fizzled away, as the latest drama on the world stage continues to unfold, making Ukraine last week's news of diminished interest to a war-wearied global public. 

 

Poland, Sweden and others are buying subs to protect pipelines   Getty Imageseeee

U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS)

"[European allies risk] civilizational erasure [as a result of their migration and free speech policies]."

"[Economic stagnation in Europe] is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure."

"[Ending the war in Ukraine is a core U.S. interest to] reestablish strategic stability with Russia." 

"[Europe is enfeebled by its immigration policies, declining birthrates], censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition [along with a] loss of national identities and self-confidence."

"Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies. Many of these nations are currently doubling down on their present path. We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence." 

"[As for the Middle East], America's misguided experiment with hectoring [countries in the Middle East, especially monarchies in the Gulf, about their traditions and forms of government]."

"[The Arab nations are] emerging as a place of partnership, friendship, and investment. We should encourage and applaud reform when and where it emerges organically, without trying to impose it."

"[The U..S. strategy] is motivated above all by what works for America -- or, in two words, 'America First'."

U.S. National Security Strategy 

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at an event in Washington, D.C., on Saturday. Trump's new national security strategy was welcomed by Moscow, according to a Kremlin spokesperson on Sunday. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/The Associated Press)

 

"The adjustments that we see correspond in many ways to our vision."

"[The current U.S. administration is] fundamentally different from the previous ones." 

"President Trump is currently strong in terms of domestic political positions. And this gives him the opportunity to adjust the concept to suit his vision."  

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin Spokesman  

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, left, speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.(Sergei Ilnitsky/The Associated Press)

 

"This NSS is a real, painful, shocking wake-up call for Europe. It is a moment of cavernous divergence between Europe’s view of itself and Trump’s vision for Europe."

"If Europe had any doubt that the Trump administration is fully committed to a tough love strategy, it now knows for sure. The administration is asking—demanding, really—that Europe polices its own part of the world and, most importantly, pays for it itself."

"The most worrying parts of the strategy are the ones that chastise Europe for losing its European character. The sentiment behind the words seems to stoke fear of migrants and an adherence to an idealized, old-world Europe that is questionable at best. Modern Europe is vibrant, evolving, and—largely—pretty happy."

"The majority of Europe’s reaction to this NSS is likely to be the same aghast shock as met Vice President JD Vance’s Munich speech."

Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) 

Released on Friday, the Trump administration's new national security strategy will give no comfort whatever to its heretofore allies in Europe, while Russia has already expressed its cautious pleasure, and China will be satisfied to an extent; Latin America has more to puzzle over, and the Middle East will feel somewhat gratified and no little relieved, for the most part. America's erstwhile partners in Europe stand to wallow in discomfort and uncertainty, not quite recognizing its place in this new America First reality imposed upon the world.

 

A disconcerting pivot from the role of controlling, stabilization empire of the globe to a new hands-off policy which allows other nations the pleasure of going it alone when it comes to stability and self-defense. With the second election/administration of Donald J. Trump to the presidency of the United States of America a new world order came into effect. On the other hand, Mr. Trump remains dedicated to 'peace' and peace-making, still counting on the Nobel Committee to come to its senses in 2026 -- which hasn't given it pause in striking 'terrorist' boats in the Caribbean Sea trafficking drugs to the U.S.

 

This is a document required by law that the administration must release; and it presents a break from former president Joe Biden's Democratic administration's course of intent which implemented a campaign to reverse Mr. Trump's first administration's trajectories. In brokering an end to the four-year-stagnant conflict in Ukraine, the first shock was the virtual abandonment of Ukraine's sovereign rights and a surprise embrace of Moscow's territorial imperative. An end to the war is not designed to liberate Ukraine but rather to consolidate a rapprochement with Russia.

 

As for America's European allies, their intransigence in supporting Ukraine and expecting the United States to continue the previous administration's commitment to that end, has left those expectations adrift and discombobulated. Trump's position in a drive to "reestablish strategic stability with Russia", when Europe's concerns are the Kremlin's yearning to restore the Soviet bloc to its former glory and NATO is stuck in a position of unease when its member-states are forced to cope with mysterious drones flying over their airports and military bases, flounders with its most powerful ally scorning its utility.

 

Jewish population of greater New York reaches 1.4 million. JNS

 

The United States, of course, faces no issues of immigration/migrant/refugee instability where Congress is faced with elected Representatives from Somalia and 'Palestine' backgrounds along with other Muslim Arab-Americans whose loyalties to the United States are not always evident. The U.S. 'melting pot' has installed imams in mosques whose Friday sermons don't exactly praise democracy and love of their fellow-man. New York electing an avowed Socialist, Muslim extremist whose contempt for America's ally in the Middle East has him broadcasting his intention to 'arrest' Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should he come to New York City, the major home of Jewish-Americans.

 

The world at large is extremely well aware of the presence of Donald J. Trump in the White House. It is still reeling from the economic blows of trading with the United States where former free-trade agreements have been swept into the dust heap of the past as economy-crippling tariffs have taken their place. The sovereignty of nations called into question when U.S. national security under Mr. Trump eyes Greenland and Canada as potential extensions of the United States. It's Mr. Trump's very own version of How to Win Friends and Influence People.  

J.D. Vance and Donald Trump   Getty Images

"That strategic clarity is entirely missing from the new NSS, which is more polemic than policy. The north star of great power competition with China and Russia—around which the first Trump administration built bipartisan consensus—is gone."

"Rather than describing the scope and scale of China’s systemic challenge to the United States and our allies and partners, the 2025 NSS makes clear that economics are “the ultimate stakes.” The new paramount objective of Washington’s China policy is a “mutually advantageous economic relationship with Beijing.” 

"The discussion of Russia is mealymouthed at best: The document declines to characterize the threat Moscow poses to U.S. interests. It instead opts for the bizarre formulation, “many Europeans regard Russia as an existential threat.” 

"And while the 2017 NSS highlighted Iran and North Korea as second-tier threats, the new NSS does not mention North Korea at all and downplays the danger posed by Iran after Operation Midnight Hammer."

"Vance’s speech in Munich could have been interpreted back in February as the ideological views of just the vice president and parts of the radical MAGA base. But now, these views have become the administration’s official policy, which will only accelerate Europe’s efforts to hedge against the United States and to build up its own autonomy."

Council on Foreign Relations  

The Pentagon, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Defense, seen from the air in Washington, DC. (Photo by J. David Ake/Getty Images)

  

Sounds Like an Approach to Regional Conflict...

"There must be a U.S. backstop because a U.S. security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again."

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer

 

"Russia is preparing for a long war. They have now three times the manpower and their defence industry is moving quicker than that of Europe."

"Does anybody believe that this is only aimed at Ukraine?"

"What is the use of security guarantees from a weak party? Europe needs to muscle up right now to be actually able to provide security guarantees that will hold."

Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovile Sakaliene

UK PM and French President at 106th anniversary of Armistice Day. Nov2024   AP

In Europe, political and military leaders are busy fleshing out details of a plan for European forces -- on the sidelines of the United States and Russian talks, to which Ukraine has not been invited -- to vigilantly prepare to ensure that Moscow will not attack again. The issue of a united European force is likely to be high on the agenda when U.K. PM Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron visit Washington for talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, next week.

 

The proposed force would only be workable if the U.S. military could be relied upon for backing, and persuading Donald Trump to that opinion will be a difficult proposition. What Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is really invested in is NATO membership to ensure the security guarantee he is looking for. Yet while NATO's European members are fully invested in backing Ukraine in its NATO ambition, it seems the U.S. has no intention of paving the way for Ukraine in NATO.

 

With NATO membership closed off to  him, Zelenskyy feels that over 100,000 European troops would be required to guarantee the conflict will not flare up once more following a ceasefire. According to Western officials what is under discussion is not an army of peacekeepers to be posted along the 1,000 kilometr front line in Ukraine's east, but rather a "reassurance force". Fewer than 30,000 European  troops on the ground in Ukraine, distant from the front line at key infrastructure sites, backed with western air and sea power is what the UK and France envision.

 

The front line would, under the plan, be monitored remotely. Based outside Ukraine, air power would be in reserve for the purpose of deterring breaches and to reopen Ukrainian airspace to commercial flights. Presumably U.S. air power could be included, in the opinion of the U.K.'s Starmer. However, U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth informed European allies "there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine", without completely ruling out U.S. support like air transport or logistics.

 

French President Macron speaks with Ukrainian soldiers at military camp in France, Oct2024  AP

"Different people in the administration are sending different signals ... Who do you believe, is an issue", commented former senior NATO official Jamie Shea. The closest NATO countries in proximity to Russia, the U.K., France, the Nordic and Baltic states, are likely to be assigned the major roles in any such force as is being proposed. Poland, a key logistics base for support to Ukraine since Russia's invasion does not intend to send  troops into Ukraine, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz commented that discussion of a Europe-led security force is "premature", and he was "a little irritated" that peacekeeping forces were being discussed "at the wrong time", insisting NATO, and not an independent European force, must remain the foundation of Ukrainian security. Russia has a fighting force of some 600,000  troops in Ukraine; according to analysts any ceasefire leaving the bulk of that force in place would be a guarantee of renewed conflict.

 

The French military is comprised of just over 200,000 personnel, the U.K.'s fewer than 150,000; Europe would struggle to mount a force of even tens of thousands, according to Matthew Savill, director of military sciences, Royal United Services Institute. 

British PM Keir Starmer speaks to British soldiers at base in Cyprus, Dec.2024   AP