Prognostication: Canada's Future

"[A report from an obscure government department warned of the potential that many Canadians may] face the very real possibility of downward social mobility [by 2040]."

"The report paints a terrifying picture of a spiral of economic depression and cost inflation."

Conservative Leader, contender for Prime Minister, Pierre Poilievre

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Photo by Dave Sidaway/Postmedia/File

 

"Thinking about future scenarios helps decision-makers understand some of the forces already influencing their policy environment."

"It can also help them test the future readiness of assumptions built into today's policies and programs."

"Finally, it helps identify opportunities to take decisions today that may benefit Canada in the future."

Policy Horizons Report

The report in question hazards hypothetical situations that could arise in Canada by 2040, none of them reason to anticipate a bright future for the country and its citizens. Indeed, the hypotheses lead to the very real potential of young Canadians feeling forced to move elsewhere to find a more promising future. Among the hypotheses is the grim prediction that matters may regress to the point where the economic situation facing young Canadians may lead them to begin foraging and hunting to meet their basic food needs; back to the pioneer past.

 

 

 

Policy Horizons is a government office, part of the Department of Employment and Social Development Canada, founded in 1996 to engage in strategic foresight. Policy Horizons, according to a department spokesperson, analyzes the "emerging policy landscape, the challenges that lie ahead, the opportunities opening up", as well as "building foresight literacy and capacity in the public service". The idea is for trained minds to engage in exploring ways an unfolding future could take us, to inform current government priorities. 

Such enhanced strategic foresight as a thoughtful, practical exercise in viewing, determining, analyzing and reaching conclusions that reflect serious thought is not unknown in the business world. Policy Horizons in its mission to aid government decision-making on critical issues reflects methodologies used by both the private sector and other national governments. The hypothetical futures it foresees become an exercise in aid of preparing government for all possible future trends.

"Inequality between those who rent and those who own has become a key driver of social, economic and political conflict."

"Social relations no longer offer pathways to connections or opportunities that enable upward mobility."

"Job actions and strikes may disrupt economic development."

"People could rethink what 'prosperity' means, or 'fulfilment'. They may reject conspicuous consumption. They may focus on policies that promote human flourishing."

"This could include health care, housing, the environment, and education for its own sake."

Policy Horizons Report 

In the report, it is pointed out that the hypothetical 2040 Canada becomes a society that "increasingly resembles an aristocracy", with one of the only ways of flourishing would be through inheritance where intergenerational wealth passes down in wealth transfer. Where post-secondary education no longer leads to social mobility; a future educational structure too expensive for any but the wealthy and where the attainment of that level of academic knowledge becomes a status symbol of the "elite".

 

 

Where the labour market becomes more limited with the rise and advancement of Artificial Intelligence, most markedly in creative fields, where reliable, steady, well-remunerated employment becomes a dream of the past.  Without a steady income Canadians will become increasingly unlikely to be able to afford housing and will be forced to share housing with others, living together under a single roof.

 

At the very present, housing costs which have spiralled in the last decade have become a signal defining issue of the current 2025 election. An Ipsos poll from April 2024 concluded that 80 percent of Canadians believe that home ownership is now for the wealthy, with 72 percent claiming they have surrendered any hope of ever owning a home of their own. 

 

That future, hypothetical Canada would inherit a less predictable economy, wealth highly concentrated, a depressed consumer economy with people having far less disposable income. While younger Canadians may choose to move abroad, migrants may select countries other than Canada, the result of which would be imperilled social services, too costly to be borne by the depressed tax base. 

"They may attack policies believed to favour older cohorts, who benefited from the era of social mobility."

"In extreme cases, people could reject the state's legitimacy, leading to higher rates of tax evasion or other forms of civil disobedience."

"The content of this document does not necessarily represent the views of the Government of Canada, or participating departments and agencies."

Policy Horizons Report