Complacently Asleep at the Wheel
"[Whether deliberate or not, these overflights are] not seen as the start of something bigger.""It looks like it was either aimed at testing NATO or ... the aim was to approach targets in Ukraine from a different angle."(unnamed) NATO diplomat"[On missile defence, Europe's strategy of sheltering under a shield] is a losing one.""Russia produces roughly one-and-a-half to two times as many ballistic and cruise missiles as Europe produces interceptors, and it is far outpacing Europe in long-range drone production.""[The current approach is] unsustainable [in the long run]."German researcher Fabian Hoffman
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| A soldier walks near a house damaged by a fragment of a suspected Russian drone shot down after intrusions into Polish airspace, in Wyryki municipality, Poland September 10, 2025. (Agencja Wyborcza.pl via REUTERS) |
Whether deliberate or accidental, the intrusion of Russian drones into Polish airspace, according to experts, represents a test of NATO's preparedness and resolve. The union, after all, is all for one and one for all, is it not? An attack on any one member of NATO in theory will bring down the collected wrath of the entire enterprise. Like mutually assured destruction, the very threat of a combined response to a hostile move on a member of NATO would be sufficient, the assurance goes, to ensure that no threat evolved to become an actual act of war, such as a military invasion.
The Russian overflights arrived over an hours'-long overnight event as Russia once again unleashed a barrage of night-time strikes across Ukraine that included the western city of Lviv, some 80 kilometres from the Polish border. There were in total 19 violations, according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk; at minimum he declared on Wednesday, three drones were shot down, once Warsaw and its allies succeeded in scrambling their jets.
Of course, Russia's defence ministry was in full denial; it had certainly not deliberately targeted Poland. Despite which the incident and others similar to it, have fuelled speculation that they represent a crude test by Russia's Vladimir Putin to determine how bold his plans to continue poking at the alliance can continue to be, without provoking the ultimate response.
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| A damaged drone lies after falling in the eastern Polish village of Czosnowka, in this picture obtained from social media, in Czosnowka, Poland, September 10, 2025. (Dariusz Stefaniuk via REUTERS) |
Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign policy chief, stated that the Polish airspace breach appeared in his opinion, to be "intentional, not accidental". Belarus, a Russian ally that borders Ukraine and Poland, explained the same day that it too had shot down drones that had "lost their trajectory" over the territory. Again raising questions whether the intrusion was deliberate or that drones had simply gone astray. Later, it was also determined that some of those drones had actually originated in Belarus on Russia's behalf.
Another aspect under consideration is that the low-cost drones Russia uses can be thrown off course by Ukrainian jamming. "There have been multiple entrances by enemy drones since 2022 in Poland, Romania, Lithuania and even Croatia", said Romain Le Quiniou, head of the Euro Creative think tank, citing precedents.
Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards used to guide drones via local mobile networks, were found in drones shot down over Ukraine in July, according to the Defence Express daily. "It seems very unlikely to me that around 20 drones would accidentally find themselves in a territory where they are not supposed to be", Ulrike Franke, researcher at the European council on Foreign Relations mused.
Moreover, the intrusion occurred mere days prior to Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans to launch his Zapad-2025 military exercise adjacent NATO's borders, days following European countries in a "coalition of the willing" pledged they would implement security guarantees for Kyiv in the event of a ceasefire agreement.
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| Firefighters work on the destroyed roof of a house, after Russian drones violated Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine, with some being shot down by Poland with the backing from its NATO allies, in Wyryki, Lublin Voivodeship, Poland, September 10, 2025. (Kacper Pempel/REUTERS) |
Key to fully apprehending the intrusion is the diplomatic and military context, according to Mick Ryan of the Lowy Institute's International Security program who described the violations as "probing", an effort to gauge NATO's readiness to retaliate in the event of confrontations that could occur should the bloc establish bases in eastern Poland in support of a future presence in Ukraine.
NATO's air defences were tested by the overflights, and also tested was Western resolve with respect to its security guarantees, noted Marko Mihkelson, head of the Estonian parliament's foreign affairs commission. "By entering Polish airspace with attack drones, Russia is testing not only Poland but also the United States, as NATO's main deterrent force", he commented.
Doubts remain over NATO's and Europe's capacity to withstand a large-scale Russian air assault much less the handful of intercepted drones. "Using F35s and F22s versus drones shows we are not yet prepared", said retired U.S. general Ben Hodges. The alliance's strategic schemes for all-in-one protection and member security has a need to catch up to drone warfare.
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| In this image made from video, Police and Military Police secure parts of a damaged object shot down by Polish authorities at a site in Wohyn, Poland, Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025. (Rafal Niedzielsk/AP) |
Labels: Declarations of Non-Intent, Drone Warfare. Russian Drones in Polish Airspace, Preparedness, Putin's Mischief, Russian Challenges of NATO
posted by Pieface @ Friday, September 12, 2025
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