The Fate of Taiwan's Independent Status as a Fully Functioning State

"Taiwan is a front-line state in the Peoples Republic of China's outward push to expand its physical and political influence in the Indo-Pacific, just as Ukraine stands in the way of similar ambitions in Putin's Moscow."

"The fate of the island nation's 23.5 million people will have direct repercussions for the future of democracy the global economy, the future of technology and the ambitions of authoritarian regimes to create a world that is more hospitable to their anti-democratic outlook."

J. Michael Cole, academic, Taipei, former intelligence officer 

Most Taiwanese consider themselves Taiwanese only, while some among them acknowledge their Chinese heritage. Unlike China, Taiwan has fully embraced democracy, and as Mr. Cole points out, Taiwan is "increasingly incompatible with, and resistant to, Beijing's attempts to annex it." He explains this and much more in his book The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island Nation at the Center of the New Cold War, arguing that Beijing's annexation determination does not reflect a historic wrong through uniting a divided nation, but far more reflects China's authoritarian territorial expansionism. 

 

On the weekend, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation noted a U.S. intelligence report that there has been a rapid buildup of the commercial ferry fleet by China in preparation for an invasion of Taiwan; roll-on/roll-off ferries are being produced by a Chinese shipyard modified to carry tanks for an amphibious operation. Some 70 of these vessels will have been built to order by 2026's year-end. 

 

Beijing's President Xi Jinping had been governor of Fujian province situated directly across the strait from Taiwan, and irrespective of the fact that 92 percent of Taiwanese have no wish to join China, Xi has ordered the People's Liberation Army to build its military capacity to prepare to invade and take Taiwan by force by 2027 while he is still alive to enjoy his territorial acquisition exploit and perhaps before he turns his ambitions toward accessing disputed territories with his South China Sea neighbours.

 

 (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)  A Chinese coast guard boat moves near the Philippine resupply vessel Unaizah after it was hit by their water canon blast causing injuries to multiple crew members as they tried to enter the Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea Tuesday, March 5, 2024. 

"The Gordian knot tightens, with little, if any potential for a truly peaceful resolution."

"The calm and pragmatism that has characterized the Taiwanese people's threat perception has undoubtedly contributed to Taiwan's resilience. It has prevented panic and stock market crashes whenever China holds major military exercises to coerce Taiwan."

"However, This pragmatism relies on a reading of Chinese intentions and  capabilities that may no longer reflect reality."

J. Michael Cole, Taipei  

In 2023, a war game by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies envisaged loss of Taiwan's entire fleet, and half of its air force, while, with the U.S. holding firm to its pledge to aid Taiwan, would lose two aircraft carriers, 20 warships and hundreds of aircraft if a titanic military clash did eventuate. The envisioned scenario would also see the PlA with heavy losses, needless to say. 

 

China's ocean-going ferries are capable of transporting armoured vehicles and soldiers. (Supplied: CCTV)

 

Taiwan has invested in their own cruise missile stock; they've built beach defences, protected critical infrastructure, reduced trade dependence on China, and created their own satellite network. The growing conviction by Beijing that the U.S is in decline and distracted by domestic infighting, has emboldened Xi. The conviction that Taiwan is "an indispensable element" in the Indo-Pacific state of stability is a true incentive for the West to be highly concerned over Xi's intentions. 

 

And then aside from the dread prospect of hundreds of thousands of lives that might be lost in a conflict of this dimension, there is also the element of world control of rare earth elements and production of critically required communication and technological items. Taiwan produces 60 percent of the world's semi-conductors to a value of $10 trillion -- ten percent of global GDP. 

 

A cargo ship is seen next to a new class of specialised landing dock in southern China. (Supplied: US Naval War College/Maxar Technologies)