The Bear Wagging Its Stump
The message was blunt, brutal and to the point. The message underlying the peace-keeping invasion that saw Russia trash international agreements on recognition of the inviolability of sovereign rights of nations; that their borders must not be breached by other countries' armies has received recognition. Russia felt that Georgia deserved a whupping. And Russia was prepared to deliver. Any pretext would do, and Georgia more or less walked - or drove its tanks - into the quicksand that Russia had carefully staged.No one has to give credibility to the irate descriptions of "genocidal intent" that Russia has promulgated as her reason for assembling a massive force - so strangely at the ready - to protect her "citizens". One must ask, if South Ossetia is part of Georgia's geography even though it was granted autonomy, and its people were citizens of Georgia, did they carry dual passports? South Ossetians' desire for complete independence was too convenient for words, enabling Russia to plan its slap alongside Georgia's face.
The military invasion was a necessity for Russia. Sweet persuasion isn't its way and in any event crude and rude does it for Russia, not diplomatic overtures. For one thing, Russia's neighbours have no reason to trust Russian motivation; they've been too well versed in its hegemonic greed, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the answer to their prayers. Not likely they felt eager to stand obediently in line waiting to be re-absorbed.
Yet it's the manner of Russia's former satellites' departure and subsequent cozying up to Western Europe and the United States that particularly rankles Russia's governing elite. No one loves ingrates, those who don't appreciate the overtures and efforts made on the part of others to ingratiate themselves with those who spurn them. National pride and honour don't take kindly to loss of prestige and respect.
Force of argument, threats and finally instilling fear through a violent message such as bombing civilian enclaves and government infrastructures will most certainly do the trick. When a bear's instinctual aggressive tendencies have been aroused, it is difficult-to-impossible to talk it down from its hostile intent. Anxious onlookers in the guise of representatives from the international community can wring their hands, entreat and plead for calm and a restoration of relations, but Russia acts with impunity.
Who will step forward to be the first country to pledge to put themselves and their armies in harm's way? Not surprisingly, the timid warnings emanating from the industrialized countries of the world that Russia risks future good relations with them, falls on deaf ears. The message is clear, and Russia's neighbours, from Ukraine to Estonia get it. It's loud and clear, and expressly violent. Mission accomplished.
The world has an astonishingly short memory. Relations of one kind or another will be restored. Just another adjustment in the world order.
Labels: Political Realities, Troublespots, World Crises
posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, August 12, 2008
<< Home