Hegemonic Power Politics
Thus has it always been, thus will it always be. If the power behind the Soviet Union has anything to say about it. So we have another classic example of the kettle blackening the pot. Where Russia is self-empowered by entitlement as eastern Europe's prime bully to wreak havoc on any country that presumes to challenge its pre-eminence as a military power by virtue of its leaders' determining aggressive acts to ensure that questioners remain timid and suppressed.Afghanistan happens, Chechnya happens, as did Czechoslovakia and still does a cowering Ukraine, let alone all the other bordering states hesitant to rouse the irascible temper of a glowering giant in world politics. One that has, furthermore, in the last few years, become a resurgent force in other spheres; economic and energy-wise, enabling it to indulge in other types of bullying. In a sense, Russia has re-emerged to take its former place as one of the duo of world bullies.
If one had a choice, however, one might self-protectively select the bullying of the United States, as long as it too wasn't poked too insolently in its abundantly self-serving eye. The reason is simple enough; while Russian citizens bask in the reflected glory of a resurgent albeit nascent Russian super-power and will support their government in whatever aggressions it takes on, Americans are not quiet as sanguine about their government's like decisions.
Americans require accountability, some recognition of the universal rule of law, and their humane system of values and justice in trust help enormously to keep some ambitions of some of their politicians in check. Now here is Russia, playing the uber-bully once again, militarily invading the territory of a former satellite. Georgia has been playing it too cozy with the West for Russian comfort. Russia has lost too many of its former satellites to the West, and it stings.
Even Serbia, whose outrage at the United Nations and particularly countries of the West lending formal support and recognition to Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence, has lent itself to closer relations with the very countries which supported Kosovo's decision. Russia simply cannot abide the very thought, let alone the reality, that its former allies and dependent-countries have abandoned it.
So it drew the line for Georgia. Giving Russian citizenship to South Ossetians as a warning to Georgia that it may not take steps to do as Russia does, in aggressive military action to ensure that province does not succeed in breaking away and declaring its independence. Russia has been encouraging the rebel forces in South Ossetia, arming and training them, and steadfastly denying it has been engaged in any such skulduggery.
Trouble is, the Georgian leadership has proof positive of Russian involvement, with Russian planes having been filmed engaged in shooting down Georgian surveillance drones, among other matters. The Ossetian separatists are determined to have their way, to be re-united with North Ossetia, itself part of Russia. And how long does Russian intelligence feel it would take for a united Ossetia, North-South, to assert its need for independence from Russia?
In a very real sense, it's hard not to feel some sympathy for any ethnic/social/religious clan where borders have summarily assembled them into a nation they have no empathy with, anywhere in the world, from Spain to Iraq, Turkey to Georgia, Sri Lanka to Congo. The Kurds want a nation of their own, and they agitate between Turkey and Afghanistan and Iraq, to secede. Tamils desire their own independence, and they've perfected violent persuasion to achieve that end.
Once borders have been established, often with no regard for the tribal affiliations they bisect through the auspices of colonial powers departing the scene, the emergent countries' governing bodies - from the Middle East to Africa - have no intention whatever to entertain the yearnings of disparate ethnic minorities to succeed in separation. Diplomacy is rarely invoked as a reasoning tool. More often military force settles the question.
When Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili sought a truce from hostilities, Ossetian separatists launched attacks against Georgian villages in response. There was no other option, under those circumstances, but to invade its province of South Ossetia in an attempt to restore order. While South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity claimed his forces were capable of holding their own against the Georgian forces, and he had no intention of calling for Russian assistance.
A day later, with the South Ossetian capital in flames, Russia condemned Georgia harshly: "Georgia's step is absolutely incomprehensible and shows that the Georgian leadership has zero credit of trust. Georgia's behaviour is treacherous." Which, if it were not so serious, would be downright amusing, given Russia's military advance on its own would-be separatists, let alone neighbouring countries who dissent from Russian dominance.
Now, Georgia is in deep trouble. A full-scale Russian military interference is in play, with Russian belligerence at the highest level of determination to protect 'its own'; the South Ossetian Georgian citizens it had extended Russian citizenship to in a provocative move to warn Georgia to call off improvident thought of any potential measures to ensure that separation would not succeed.
"If the whole world does not stop Russia today, then Russian tanks will be able to reach any other European capital" warned Georgia's president. Russia will be condemned. But Georgia is in this conflict not entirely of its own design, on its own. A lot of United Nations' sponsored tut-tutting will commence, and the situation deplored. Russia will be asked, politely, to cease and desist. It will, of course, ignore world opinion, world censure.
It will be recommended to Georgia that it take nice steps to placate the separatists; restore autonomy and promise non-interference, for the time being, until the matter can be fully resolved to everyone's satisfaction. Former Russian president, now Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, informed U.S. President George W. Bush in Beijing, that "war has started today in South Ossetia".
Not their fault that Georgia has launched an all-out war on Russia's allies.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is discussing the issues involved, with his national security council. "We will not tolerate the death of our citizens" declared he, a rather spurious statement, under the background circumstances and current decision to bring death to Georgians for their impudence in defying Russia's carefully laid trap. "Those guilty will receive due punishment."
Doubtless they will. Russia is very adept at delivering punishment.
Labels: Political Realities, Troublespots, World Crises
posted by Pieface @ Saturday, August 09, 2008
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