The Iron Noose Tightens; Then What?
A tense situation grown ever more tense. Russia's grievance against the impudence of the United States, encouraging Russia's former satellites to clasp themselves ever closer to Western interests rankles Russia no end. It's a humiliation they are not willing to endure forever. And with former allies agreeing to join with the United States in its putative plans to protect itself and its allies against potential strikes from homicidally hostile countries, the burden of ill will has become too great.Each time Russia expressed its unhappiness over American plans to install interceptor missiles in Poland, it received light-hearted assurances that its concerns were for naught. No, the missiles that would, in effect, encircle Russia, would not be directed at Russia, not at all. Their placement is meant as a deterrent and a protective ploy against the possibility of Iran or North Korea launching missiles against the United States. Or Poland, for that matter, get it?
Russia remains unconvinced and is not at all reluctant to demonstrate how unconvinced it is. After all, if a far-flung nation takes the initiative to interest close neighbours to take potentially hostile steps against a near neighbour, it makes for a very nervous situation, one in which the near neighbour must see itself as the primary target. Particularly given past misunderstandings, and hostilities, not quite yet resolved.
The interceptor missiles are to be placed 1,360 kilometres from Moscow. "It's clear to us, and the American leadership doesn't deny it, that the so-called missile shield in Europe will be widened and modernized. In that case Russia will be compelled to react - and not only by diplomatic protests," declared the Russian Foreign Ministry, ominously. If not diplomatically, then how, asks the innocent....
Poland denies that the recent Russian incursion into Georgia had anything to do with the signing of a deal that had hitherto been dithered about with. Pure coincidence. Poland would even invite Russia to survey the silo and its interceptor missiles once it's in place. Be their guest on a guided tour. Swallow the insult and come along to an opening-night party.
Include the Czech Republic; they're part of the infrastructure for protection from far off neighbours intent on wreaking destruction on Europe and North America. Russia's churlish response is that Poland is flirting with military disaster, for they will not sit by complacently while the silos are put in place and then extended for a complete iron circle of deterrence - or more, around Russia.
This is the ultimate threat, an existential potential for complete disaster. If not for Russia, then for Poland, in the short-range. Since Russia has solemnly given its promise that it is prepared to target the installation; that having agreed to formalize the deal, Poland is now "100%" exposed to the potential of - even nuclear - strikes. Russia's obligation to its own security and that of its people is a foregone conclusion.
And it doesn't stop there. Since the United States has effectively pledged to reflect exactly what Russia has done in mounting a defence of South Ossetia by invading and battling Georgia. The U.S. Secretary of State has stated her country's "guarantee" of Poland's safety. Another very direct challenge to the possibility that Russia will take steps to express its dissatisfaction with its former ally, militarily.
Now that's something for the world to contemplate, something to keep everyone up at night, tossing and turning, sleep eluding us.
Labels: Political Realities, Troublespots, World Crises
posted by Pieface @ Thursday, August 21, 2008
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