generalspeaking

Everything Will Be A-OK

Here is "new Europe" standing up and shouting they won't have it again. They've been through it, experienced it, and will no longer submit - through bellicose threats, through bloody militancy - to reverting to their former position as unwilling hostage-satellites to Russian's hegemonic demands.

They know what they've left behind, and have no wish - neither their governments, nor their people (with the exception of the Russians settled among them) of re-attaching themselves to anything remotely resembling the Soviet Union. They now control their destiny. They alone have the potential to advance their goals, as sovereign nations.

And as sovereign nations they now take full advantage of all their geographic endowments, their national and natural resources. They are answerable to their populations, not to a near-neighbour sitting on an elevated plane of political control over them. The freedom to be themselves, in respect of their singular histories, cultures and traditions is now their future.

They stand united in opposition to any future feudal claims on their autonomy. It was they who were forced to sacrifice to Russia throughout their enforced union, and neither they nor their people have any desire to repeat the experiment. An experiment that boded so well in theory, but which turned out to be devastatingly burdensome and horribly costly in human lives to all of them, in varying degrees.

One would think, having witnessed the brutal aggression the newly-confident Russia of today is capable of, they might shrink back in horrified apprehension that they are next in turn. Which seems precisely Russia's intent in exercising what she deems is her prerogative in gross interference in a neighbour's territorial integrity.

It seems they understand they have little choice but to relent and return to their once-servile position, or to stand together and defy this newly-awakened malevolent authoritarianism linked with military ambition that Vladimir Putin has re-introduced to the East European geography. Once in thrall, no longer enthralled by the prospect of surrender to the demands of Russian oversight.

Unimaginable that they would stand together in defiance of the world's super-bully. Their independence is not for barter; it is theirs and will remain so. "We know that if other peoples' freedom is threatened...then it's not long before our freedom is threatened", said Estonia's Toomas Hendrik. Paraphrasing Pastor Niemoller in mid-20th-Century fascist Germany.

"You could say that the nation of Russia yet again showed its true face here today", affirmed Poland's Lech Kaczynski. And Ukraine's Victor Yushchenko, whose orange revolution Russia so avidly, angrily resisted, spoke for all his presidential counterparts when he said "We have come to confirm your independence and territorial integrity. These are our values."

Solace for Georgians facing their bleak, black night of invasion and occupation. Scant little, on the other hand, to be had from Old Europe, whose statements have been placatory toward Russia, given more to appeasement than to confrontation. But then they, unlike "New Europe" did not suffer the loss of dignity and freedom under the Soviet yoke.

The German foreign minister is on record, urging Europe not to isolate Russia. Well, would imposing a 900-day sentence in a padded ward in an remote asylum somewhere help to point the Kremlin toward a little self-introspection? The Gulag intermission worked for Solzenitzen. Guess not. In which case, what response would Old Europe prefer? Forgive and forget. They would not wish, after all, to freeze in the dark this coming winter.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, on the other hand, is quite correct in stating "It just doesn't seem to be to be very smart in such a time of crisis to decide whether we should revert to the previous situation". Right; another Iron Curtain descending with a resounding !clank!, and the resumption of the Cold War. And the suspense of MAD.

No one wants the other shoe to drop; on the other hand, reverting to the previous situation is what Russia is attempting, in trying to force its former satellites back into the fold. What splendid irony; Russia's former satellites burn with a white-hot anger, demanding tough sanctions against Moscow. How else does a recalcitrant bully learn that he cannot behave in such a manner?

While the Europe that had no part of the U.S.S.R., only cringing at its prickly nuclear belligerence, warns against the consequences of further antagonizing a militarily-resurgent Russia. It's not Russia's military might that makes this Europe exceedingly nervous, however, it's the far-reaching consequences of Russia casually cutting off their oil and gas supplies, as their major supplier.

Russia's hand in this card game is very strong, leading to the European Union heavy-weights allowing the Putin-Medvedev duo to dictate the ceasefire points to reflect Russia's strategic plans. Which in turn, through vague phraseology and unwarranted neutrality, leaves Georgia hanging in the wind. Which in turn doesn't sit well with Russia's former satellites, Georgia's champions.

Who, mostly themselves NATO and EU members, insist that both entities take a seriously tough line and deploy all their resources, instead of sitting back helplessly. While the other European countries speak in terms of deploying unarmed monitors into the contested area to keep the belligerents separated. Which does nothing, in fact, to solve Georgia's problem.

How does that old saw go? Depends on whose ox is being gored...?

Labels: Justice, Political Realities, Troublespots, World Crises

posted by Pieface @ Friday, August 15, 2008