The Fix Is In
Moscow has given due warning to the European Union. Impose sanctions on Russia and freeze in the dark this winter. Germany is already shuddering with fearful anticipation. France is none too happy with the promise, and Britain is fit to be tied; she has her own energy sources. As for the remaining 24 EU affiliates, well no one is spoiling for an acceleration of anything remotely resembling a heated-up Cold War II.Russia is just being Russia. Reverting to what comes naturally. Little different, actually, in, for example, The United States' own, unexpressed but obvious embrace of latter-day influence-expansion, once referred to as imperialistic ambitions. For Russia, it's a little more modest, she just wants to be recognized as top-bear in her own geography. And is no longer willing to submit to the snide belittling of the last decade.
So she's embarked on a high-stakes showdown, and it's mighty unfortunate for Georgia that it presented the timeliest target. But now that Moscow is on the rampage, and not about to admit error or remotely back down from its resurgently indomitable position of regional bully, the fix is in. Still engaged in its mission of peace, Georgia is effectively occupied, and has lost a third of its territory.
Moreover, Russia will not rest easy until and unless Georgia submits to the Kremlin demands, signal among them the resignation of Georgia's President, Mikheil Saakashvili. Moscow would be only too happy to assign a replacement president. Georgia can also forget its long-anticipated energy transit route as an alternative to Russia's singular imperative.
The Kremlin has recommended "an exchange of ideas" with EU revolving-president Nicolas Sarkozy. As in, here's my idea: take a pill, sit back, breathe deeply. To which Mr. Sarkozy is invited to submit his idea: we anticipate winter will insist on tradition; you're right, time out. On the other hand, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has been encouraged to promise that if the EU insists on sanctions, Russia will return the compliment, send their oil and gas eastward; far eastward.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (think Vlad the Impaler) insists "The truth is on our side. We act absolutely correctly, morally and in accordance with international law. Someone in Europe wants to serve someone else's foreign policy interests." So, you see, the plot sickens, oh damn, thickens, to point blame where it logically and rightfully pertains. One domineering, autocratic, polarizing and colonialist country always recognizes another.
"I expect that Europe will support our territorial integrity and will say that it will never recognize these illegal actions", bleated Georgia's president, hopefully. Not on your life, you trusting fool, mutters Vladimir Putin (think Rasputin) poking his buddy Dmitry in the ribs. While French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner (he of impeccable human rights concerns) assures that EU leaders planned to discuss a "balanced and firm text" on the Caucasus crisis.
Oops, guess that means a bit of a tongue lashing. All right, a firm admonition to behave and never do that again. Please. Sanctions? Not bloody likely. Accomplishing exactly what? The Kremlin is adamant, it will not pull back from its positions, and Mr. Medvedev, smoothly assured the EU that "We are not advocates of sanctions, and consider them to be a last resort - but "if needed, we also can adopt such special laws."
There's still a number of carrots left in the bag, though. When Russian outrage over American and European cherry-picking in their near abroad sizzles down to a manageable spit of fire, they will assent to consideration to be allowed into more than observer status with the G-8 and the World Trade Organization.
Labels: Political Realities, Troublespots, World Crises
posted by Pieface @ Monday, September 01, 2008
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