generalspeaking

Mischievous Meddling

The message to Georgia's Mikheil Saakashvili is that he is beloved by his Western supporters, most notably the United States, but not to hold his breath waiting for rescue from his current, Russian-designated status as a "political corpse". Georgia's plight is undeniably lamentable, but perhaps predictable. Many consider the impulsive indignation that led to attempted pacification of South Ossetia was ill-considered, even given the intolerable provocation.

Loud, aggressively assertive, self-availing neighbours present as a living nightmare everywhere they exist, from urban neighbourhoods - to haunt decently law-abiding citizens too demoralized to oppose their bullying tactics - to large countries leaning threateningly on smaller neighbouring countries to exert predatory control of resources and other hegemonic entitlements in defence of which the small country, desperate to safeguard its integrity protests, unavailingly.

Georgia, still reeling over its suddenly-shrunken territory, still not certain it has awoken from its invasion-occupation nightmare, waits, trustingly, for the United States to charge into the fray, drive its military might into Russia's smirkingly lingering reluctance to leave off being guardians of peace in the Caucasus. It's astonishing how near-sighted an injured psyche can be, nursing personal loss, incapable of assessing the magnitude of the damage that impetuosity has wrought.

After all, the pledge of $1-billion in aid commitment over the next few years to assist the country in re-building its shattered infrastructure is no mean thing. An expensive sop to an unfortunate misunderstanding; a costly band-aid to cosset a friend in need. Particularly if an in-coming U.S. administration agrees to honour its predecessor's pledge. That, too, depends on who inherits the U.S. throne.

Issuing threats, after all, is one thing; making good on them sometimes becomes problematic in consideration of far wider consequences. And make no mistake; the U.S. is most certainly exercised over the matter. The invasion's swift brutality, its international illegality, its mud-in-yer-face symbolism. This is discomfiting realpolitik write large. Besides which, it's just not civil behaviour at all.

On the other hand, what's sauce for the gander... The previous $1-billion U.S. investment in Georgia's military build-up and training could legitimately be seen as the irritant in the oyster of discontent that gave the unfortunate Saakashvili the encouragement to proceed to teach South Ossetia a lesson, presence of Russian "peacekeeping" troops or no. A classic case of my brother's bigger than yours, nah-nah.

Indignation abounds against Russia, Vladimir Putin and his crony Dmitri Medvedev, cannot help but squirm at the prospect of being isolated, yet again. But to really expect a substantial, unequivocal, committed set of actions? Please. Honour and commitment are all very well, but there are issues hovering below the surface satisfaction of delivering an unmistakable military riposte that simply cannot be countenanced.

Much as they detest one another, the United States and Russia really and truly, have a functional need of one another. Beyond the very real danger of a military-ideological clash, there is the issue, the supremely delicate issue, of energy accessibility and flow. Much, you see, depends upon the assurances of oil and gas delivery. International economies, trade, pride, GNP, visibility on the world market.

And oh yes, assistance in the nature of diplomatic overtures. Russia to assist in counterbalancing the threat of North Korea's on-again, off-again, nuclear programme, through the clout of civil censure. Let alone the deterrent effect a UN governing council member can exert, if it wishes, against the threat that Iran now poses to the world. With the additional prospect, not all that dim, of nuclear, fissionable material, going dreadfully astray.

Back to energy, however, the bugbear of the day. "Energy security is essential to us all and the matter is becoming increasingly urgent", said U.S. vice-president, Dick Cheney recently in Azerbaijan. "We must work with Azerbaijan and other countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia on additional routes for energy exports." Not quite yet writing off Georgia's plans as an alternate conduit, so rudely interrupted by Russia.

Washington, after all, is unwilling to allow Russia free and unfettered access and demand in her own backyard. The reserves available there are not to be considered by an arrogant Kremlin their delectable economy-nourishing fruits alone to pluck, and profit by. Poor Russia, now that she has opened the door to recognition of break-aways, she can also look forward to her own restive provinces seeking to sustain such recognition for their own sovereign aspirations.

Leaving one free to idly wonder at the precious irony of America's grandiloquent gesturing. How complacent Washington might be in the face of say, Moscow sending high-profile administration emissaries to America's close neighbours.

Canada, Mexico, say. Both oil-and-gas-producing countries with whom Washington has signed very reliant and cost-efficient supply contracts.

Labels: Political Realities, World Crises

posted by Pieface @ Friday, September 12, 2008