generalspeaking

Biting Hard...?

Sanctions "may be doing more to strengthen the regime than hasten its demise. They have generally been counterproductive by playing into Pyongyang hardliners' argument that U.S. hostility is the root cause of North Korea's predicament, providing an external enemy to blame for all woes and undercutting initiatives by more moderate forces in the North Korean elite who want to shift the focus more toward economic development."
John Delury, North Korea specialist, Yonsei University

Perhaps Mr. Delury has forgotten, at the very least, overlooked former U.S. President Clinton's forays at reluctantly submitting to the demands made of the United States by Pyongyang. Like promises made by Tehran, they simply led the U.S. and the United Nations into a state of suspended animation in the childlike belief that something substantial would arise from the pledges, when they were simply stalling techniques.

As for "moderate forces in the North Korean elite" ... where have they been hiding themselves?

North Korea, like its good friend and ally the Islamic Republic of Iran has become skilled at manipulating the demands of their interlocutors. Hiding their resentment under a veneer of amused indifference, and covering that with a carapace of sincere regret that their activities cause international concern, ceding to the demands, with one date after another lapsing while their activities simply continue, as planned.

While diplomats at the United Nations boast the sanctions resolutions - one after the other, which North Korea takes as an affront over their sovereignty - send an unmistakably powerful message to the regime, Kim Jong Un like his father before him is indifferent to the impact on his country's financial situation, more than willing to sacrifice the health and food security of his people to the greater calling of instilling fear and insecurity in his enemies.

Both North Korea and Iran are fully convinced that only with the acquisition of a nuclear arsenal and the delivery system to send them to the deserving destinations of their choice can they be free of the bullying machinations of a world jealous of their technical prowess and attainment. "We have been living with sanctions for a long time, so we're used to it", laconically stated Jang Jun Sang, department director, Ministry of Public Health, Pyongyang.

North Korea would find coping mechanisms: "If we receive medical aid, that's good. But if we don't, that's fine, too. We're not worried."  The latest UN Security Council sanctions resulting from Pyongyang's violation of earlier resolutions meant to bar it from conducting nuclear or missile tests are being celebrated for their ability to really bring results.

The Thursday UN resolution targets the country's elite. The exportation of expensive jewellery, yachts, luxury automobiles and race cars to the North is now forbidden. These are sanctions that will not impact on the suffering citizens of North Korea who already face food and medical shortages and have been for many years. These newer sanctions will impede the enjoyment of the country's elite of their privileges.

That's the storyline, in any event. "These sanctions will bite, and bite hard", claimed U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice. The only response that comes readily to mind is "you're kidding, right?"

Still, North Korea is responding on cue; warning it is prepared to scrap the armistice between the two Koreas, ending the Korean War. And once the sanctions were announced, stating the cancellation of a hotline and a non-aggression pact with South Korea. The non-aggression pact is a bit of joke, in any event; it didn't stop North Korea firing on a South Korean island last year, sinking a South Korean naval vessel with all hands on board, nor issuing one bellicose threat after another.

China remains North Korea's economic lifeline. Although Iran cannot be totally discounted, either. But for China, the pet wild animal it has kept on a leash to provide a little drama on the part of the West and keep it on its toes, it is becoming increasingly difficult to tame that beast. China's desire to ensure that its borders are not flooded with desperate-to-escape North Koreans is likely all that now keeps it providing North Korea with oil and food aid.

China's intention, beside signing on to the sanctions with some vigour this time around, may not be to enforce the resolution for "it could seriously disrupt, if not end, North Korea's proliferation activities."  But then, on second thought, according to Marcus Noland, a North Korea observer at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington: "Unfortunately, if past behaviour is an guide, this is unlikely to happen."

Labels: China, Conflict, Controversy, North Korea, Nuclear Technology, Sanctions, United Nations

posted by Pieface @ Sunday, March 10, 2013