Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Intimidating Insecurity

"There is absolutely sufficient [Russian] force postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to Transdniester if the decision was made to do that, and that is very worrisome."
"The (Russian) force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizeable and very, very ready."
U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, NATO supreme allied commander, Europe
general philip breedlove

Breedlove: 'Russia is acting much more like an adversary than a partner'
 
Transdniester, a Russian-speaking enclave in Moldova has, like Crimea in Ukraine, declared itself independent from the rest of Moldova. Roughly one-third of Transdniester's half-million people are of ethnic Russian origin. And many would be overjoyed to return to Moscow's rule. Tiraspol, the capital, holds statues of Lenin and associated symbols of the glory days of the Soviet Union.

Those issues of alignment and the burning desire to sweep back into the Russian Federation's orbit any parts of the former Soviet Union housing loyal and yearning Russians is all that Vladimir Putin requires to state with the same bland conviction of might makes a rightful return to history, and the protection of Russians motivates the Kremlin to send in its troops and recover what was once theirs.

The general's thoughtful musings aren't meant to spread alarm, but to focus on reality. One that Ukraine's new government also considers, fearing that Russia plans additional military annexations in the country's east. Russian forces attacked Ukrainian military bases in Crimea in concert with their end-plan to recover the Crimean peninsula in its entirety, and force out Ukrainian troops.

Andriy Parubiy who heads Ukraine's national security and defence council issued a warning of the threat courtesy of the Kremlin at a mass rally in Kiev. "The aim of Putin is not Crimea but all of Ukraine. His troops massed at the border are ready to attack at any moment." Paranoid hysteria? Possibly more a reflection of knowing your enemy and how his mind works.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's foreign minister, warned as well of the huge repercussions in store should Russia attempt to further reposition national borders in Europe in favour of expanding its territory. Even while Russia's defence ministry celebrated its flag flying over 189 Ukrainian military installations on the Crimean peninsula. This is a deed that cannot now be undone.

Leading to the fears that more such deeds may be in the offing. At the Crimean port of Feodosia, marines negotiating the handover of the port to Russian forces held that "Our only issue is that we want to leave this place with honour, weapons and vehicles", according to one soldier. Honour somehow eluded those leaving, shame rather, accompanied them, that they were unable to defend their own.

Moscow's ambassador to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, gave assurances that Russia had entertained no intention whatever to move its troops outside Crimea, now Russian territory. NATO remains unconvinced. Since fighting a brief separatist conflict in an effort to break away from Moldova in 1991, Transdniester has hosted a "peace-keeping" garrison of 1,000 Russian troops.

As for Russian plans for other parts of Ukraine, "it's possible that they are preparing to move in", commented the U.S. deputy national security adviser Tony Blinken, speaking of the Russian penchant to position a menacing troop buildup toward contested territory.

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