Sunday, August 31, 2014

"It's Best Not to Mess With Us."

"Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia."
"I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers."
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Video thumbnail for Russian Columns Enter Ukraine, Obama Lays Blame

Casual comments, imbued with pride and the slightest nudge of a threat by a man who knows his comments, wherever they take place, will be repeated for public consumption to a far wider audience than those to whom these remarks were directly aimed, Russian youth attending a pro-Kremlin summer camp on the banks of a lake not far from Moscow.

Those remarks were unleashed just as European leaders were preparing their emergency summit a day later. And the remarks follow on the presence of over one thousand regular Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, according to NATO surveillance and Ukrainian intelligence. Regular Russian troops are outgunning, outmanning, outmanoeuvring Ukrainian forces diligently working to unseat the ethnic Russian rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

Those Russian troops appear to represent the backbone of a counter-offensive aiding the rebels in eastern Ukraine to once again take back control of swaths of territory from Ukrainian government forces, turning the tide though just a week earlier government forces had good reason to believe they had the momentum required to destroy the rebel network and remove them from their positions of control.

Now, speaking for the separatists in the coastal town of Novoazovsk, the man identifying himself as the 'president' of the 'Donetsk Peoples' Republic' boasts of their plan to push westward to the port city of Mariupol, 35 kilometres' distant. Underlining concerns that the aim is to establish a land bridge linking the Russian mainland to the Crimean Peninsula now in Russian possession. Eastern Ukraine is being gradually eviscerated.

An area that is mineral rich with resource deposits that Russia is hungry for is within reach, even as Russia consolidates its Crimean Peninsula gain with direct overland access, shutting out the legal owners of the land, the people of Ukraine. The mysterious "humanitarian aid" trucks that passed through a border crossing in rebel control had a purpose, to loot Ukrainian munitions and parts manufacturers of their warehoused parts, before withdrawing.

Mariupol represents the next major battle that Ukrainian forces brace for when the assault finally materializes. Western hopes that sanctions imposed on Russia would succeed in persuading Vladimir Putin to stand down from his ambitions have obviously failed to gain their purpose. NATO leaders plan to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko next week in Newport, U.K. to demonstrate NATO's "unwavering support", whatever that means, to a non-NATO member.

"Russian forces are engaged in direct military operations inside Ukraine. Russia continues to supply the separatists with tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and rocket launchers. Russia has fired on Ukraine from both Russian territory and within Ukraine itself", Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO secretary-general accused. Ukraine is now expected to ask for a package of aid; thousands of new uniforms, helmets, body armour and communications gear.

Its defence chiefs would also greatly appreciate access to sophisticated American and NATO satellite images of Russian troop positions. And while they're at it, generous offers to supply badly needed newer-technology armaments to supplement what Ukraine already possesses. Least, certainly not last, Arseny Yatseniuk, Ukraine's prime minister, announced his country is prepared to make application to join NATO.

A move that would obligate NATO to the active defence of Ukraine and possibly lead to an all-out war between revanchist Russia and a very, very reluctant West, though Europe is moving more emphatically toward that kind of mindset. As in "something must be done"!

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