generalspeaking

Impending Entanglements

"We are seeing movement in the city of Aden where we see skirmishes and movement into Aden from three different directions; they will be entering Aden within hours."
"We are determined to provide assistance to prevent this from happening."
"We have made it clear we will not allow them (Houthis) to take Yemen by force."
Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States

The United States, with its bombing forays targeting Islamist jihadists threatening the stability of the Middle East and by larger measure, the interests of the United States, has killed more than its fair share of innocent bystanders, but this is accepted as a cost of war, even the kind of asymmetrical war that now passes for conflict between states, in a removed world of distant-striking drones.

But the United States is vastly troubled that its Middle East ally Saudi Arabia to whom it has offered support in logistical and intelligence aid backing the Saudi coalition's anti-Houthi action, has killed an estimated one thousand Yemeni civilians thus far as it pounds Houthi positions in and around the Gulf of Aden. The State Department is advising Saudi Arabia that it would appreciate hugely should it put a stop to the bombing.

Persuading Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that the United States has their best interests at heart, even while it is pursuing an agreement with their direst threat in the Middle East on the nuclear file, is proving difficult. How to prove to the traditional Sunni Arab allies that the negotiation with Iran will not hamper American security commitments to the Sunni Arab monarchies?

The proxy war between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is not going away. While Iran has been allowed to carry Syria and Lebanon and Iraq into its Shiite crescent of emerging power, Saudi Arabia and its allies have decided to dig in their heels over Yemen and Bahrain. Just as Vladimir Putin had persuaded Barack Obama that diplomacy is better than war over Syria, John Kerry is urging Saudi Arabia to agree to  peace negotiations with Yemeni rebels.

Saudi Arabia has the inarguable results of Syria's collapse into anarchic violence to guide his choice. And so, though the declaration was made on Tuesday that the Saudi bombing coalition had come to an end, it resumed on Wednesday. And part of the reason that it did was that the Houthi campaign hasn't come to an end, it has continued, and is gaining ground.

Houthi forces took two military bases over the last 24 hours, the 35th Brigade base west of Raiz, and the Kufahl Army Base in Mareb Province, according to to Mohammed Albasha, Yemeni government spokesman in Washington. And that's where Saudi airstrikes are now being directed, along with Aden and Lahi.

The Houthi rebels control the capital. Iran has sent arms shipments to its Yemeni Shiite allies who have until now spurned negotiations. And Saudi Arabia looks prepared to call in a ground invasion. Operation Decisive Storm has come to an end, and Operation Renewal of Hope has taken its place; signalling a political negotiation for a unity government in Yemen and the provision of humanitarian relief. That was then; lasting one full day.

Since Houthi forces continue to launch attacks, negotiations are off. The U.S. is also concerned over its warships entering the Gulf of Aden led by the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, about to meet up with an approaching flotilla of Iranian cargo and military vessels. Ambassador Jubeir has stated that Saudi ships in the gulf plan to inspect the cargo of all vessels entering and exiting Yemen.

And intelligence, aerial refuelling and logistical support by the U.S. to the Saudi-led air campaign is set to continue, even while the Obama administration continues its diplomacy urging an end to the fighting -- though it appears there will be no clear end in sight anytime soon. And the U.S. finds itself in the usual tight spot it gets crammed into whenever it enters Middle East politics; negotiating with Iran while helping the Saudis fend off Iranian expansionism.

Never, ever a dull moment. Never an opportunity lost to lose an opportunity.

Labels: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Shiites, Sunnis, United States, Yemen

posted by Pieface @ Saturday, April 25, 2015