Islamic State of Iraq and Al Sham
No one any longer speaks disparagingly about that upstart former al-Qaeda affiliate whose modus operandi even al-Qaeda disowned. But it seems that the more intransigently brutal the jihadis attached to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham became, the more celebrity attached to them, and the more appealing joining their crusade for a widespread Islamist caliphate patterned on the values and actions of Islam around the time of its founding becomes to new recruits from around the world, eager to enlist in their numbers.
The Muslim countries that adhere to Sharia law where amputations for theft, stoning for adultery, flogging for insulting government, capital punishment for leaving Islam for another religion; where beheadings and hangings take place in public, don't usually go about advertising their mode of lawful state sentencing. The squeamish and human-rights conscious in Western democracies simply would not understand. But for ISIS, on the other hand, the drama of recording crucifixions, immolations and beheadings adds to their popular appeal.
There was a time back in 2013 when President Barack Obama spoke dismissively of the emerging Islamic State as a force to be reckoned with, comparing them to a junior varsity league team; irrelevant and easily handled:
While interviewing Obama, The New Yorker’s David Remnick noted that “the flag of al-Qaeda is now flying in Fallujah, in Iraq, and among various rebel factions in Syria,” and that “al Qaeda has asserted a presence in parts of Africa, too.”It is now considered to be a hugely successful desert strike force, even though its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and its deputy leader have been incapacitated, and its new acting leader was entirely put out of commission, rendered stone-dead. Along with other senior leaders. Somehow the 'leaderless' jihadists have managed brilliantly to carry on, out-manoeuvring and terrifying their Syrian and Iraqi antagonists.
The president shot back: “If a jayvee team puts on Lakers uniforms that doesn’t make them Kobe Bryant.”
It has no doubt been hugely helpful that many former Sunni officers of the Saddam Hussein military, skilled military tacticians, now act as its guides, out-planning and -attacking the Syrian army, and above all, the Iraqi security forces that have been trained by U.S. military combat specialists not only once, but several times. That President Bashar al-Assad's army is losing to ISIS, despite fighting assistance from Hezbollah and the Iranian al-Quds Republican Guards cadres represents a conundrum of sorts.
On the one hand, the defeat of the Syrian regime can only be thought of as a civilized advance; their absence should allow Syrian Sunni rebel militias to regain their place in their country of origin, representing the majority population - that is, if it is not now too late, given the huge influx of foreign Islamist terrorists that have gained advantage in the past several years let alone the presence of Islamic State and al-Nusra. On the other hand, the victories that ISIS has managed bode ill for the future of the Middle East if there is no stop to them.
Both the Syrian and the Iraqi armies have been completely routed, demoralized, stumbling away from conflict with ISIS in the east, from Jabhat al-Nusra and others in the northwest. Present Obama remains convinced that the U.S. can continue to fight ISIS from the air, and has no interest in committing American "boots on the ground", even though "moderate" Syrian rebels and Iraqi security forces, despite training and arming them, haven't the wherewithal to fight ISIS.
President Assad continues to marginalize his inner circle and government Sunni members. He trusts only his Alawite core defence. His support from the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Shia militias gave him temporary advantage and it seems now to have dissipated; Islamic State has become too powerful, both on the battlefield and in the imaginations of those proving incapable of regarding themselves as equally endowed with the courage of their convictions.
Finally, the realization that conventional armies no longer have the advantage even if they have the tools at their disposal, in more advanced weaponry and more of it. It is the militias, their flexibility with strategic and tactical reliance on responding to situations as they occur and the use of their fearsome reputations to instill fear and foreboding that advantages them. The Kurds, Islamist rebel militias and Shiite militias have had more success than the regular armies, against ISIS.
The U.S.-led coalition airstrikes are hugely useful, but are simply not enough to impact adequately on Islamic State advances. ISIS isn't being dislodged from its core territory, and though it has suffered some setbacks, it has also surged ahead on a number of fronts, as it has done just recently in Ramadi and Palmyra.
Labels: Conflict, Iran, Iraq, Islamic State, Syria, United States
posted by Pieface @ Friday, May 22, 2015
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