generalspeaking

Wisdom, Regret in Hindsight

"Knowing what we know now, I think it's safe for many of us myself included, to say we probably wouldn't have taken [that approach]."
Scott Walker, Wisconsin Governor

"The greater amount of angst in the military is from seeing the manifest positive results of the surge in 2007 and 2008 go to waste by misguided policies in the aftermath."
"Those mistakes were huge and compounded the original error of going into Iraq in the first place. There's plenty of blame to go around."
"What we need is not so much blame as to figure out what happened and use that knowledge to make better decisions going forward."
U.S. Army Colonel Peter Mansoor, retired former assistant to General David Petraeus, Baghdad

"I still think the decision to overthrow Saddam was correct. I think decisions made after that decision were wrong, although I think the worst decision made after that was the 2011 decision to withdraw U.S. and coalition forces. The people who say, oh things would have been much better if you didn't overthrow Saddam miss the point that today's Middle East does not flow totally and unchangeably from the decision to overthrow Saddam alone." John Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations

Mr. Mansoor is now a professor of military history at Ohio State University. He deplores the error of the first part; the decision by the U.S. Congress to green-light the G.W. Bush administration's 'coalition of the willing' attack on Iraq, ostensibly for the noble purpose of freeing Iraqis from the tyrannical burden that the incomparable Saddam Hussein placed on them. In so doing, unleashing history to take a turn for the worse.

The deadly enmity between Iraq and Iran, both countries which harboured visions of themselves as leaders of the Muslim world, one Arab the other Aryan/Persian, balanced and negating those aspirations, leaving their threats to that Muslim world in suspension. With Saddam Hussein out of contention, the viral hatred of the sects dominated the agenda; after a paroxysm of attacks and slaughter, Shia and Sunni settled in for a long conflict.

The understanding that the Iraqi government would reflect in equal measure, Shia, Sunni and Kurds as reasonably dictated by their population base, was speedily abrogated by the majority Shiites, as soon as the  United States pulled out its political/diplomatic and military from the country. The Sunni tribes, which had been persuaded by General Petraeus to lend themselves to join the famed U.S. military 'surge' to rout al-Qaeda, were betrayed by the Shiite-led government.

That was the source of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, waging its own conquest of both Syria and Iraq with its reward, the Islamist Caliphate. The ISIS campaign of terror represents an exemplary lesson in what can go wrong in the Middle East when outsiders tamper with the long-established order of tyrannical dictatorships, ensuring that the sectarian and tribal hatreds would not get too out of hand for control.

Now, in the United States, a country which has been feebly attempting to clean up the unspeakable mess that moved into the vacuum of Saddam Hussein's absence, regret and retrospection have assailed the conscience of the political elite, most of whom voted for Congressional approval to remove the threat that Saddam posed, with his 'weapons of mass destruction'.

Frontrunner Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton has written her vote was based on the data believed to be true at the time, but "I got it wrong. Plain and simple." Her Republican counterparts regretfully state equal wisdom in retrospect. Even Jeb Bush managed his mea culpa introspection that his brother's war was not a felicitous event, either for the Middle East or for the United States. In hindsight none of the candidates, Republican or Democrat would have validated that invasion.

When Barack Obama withdrew U.S. troops in 2011, he stated with confidence that a stable, self-reliant Iraqi government would result. Which turned out as reliable as his predecessor stating prematurely and ignoring reality, on the flight deck of the Abraham Lincoln, 'Mission accomplished', a statement that  would come back to haunt him. The Iraqi government that ensued took no time to accuse the Sunni portion of the administration of terrorism, and solidified the Shiite hold on power.

Turmoil, instability, resentment and finally terrorism strangled Iraq, and brought it into full partnership with Iran, the world's new terrorism central, with its inexorable march toward nuclear warhead attainment. And the Middle East is focused on the latest threat to existence posed by the Islamic State which celebrates its joy and satisfaction in crucifixion, torture, beheading, rape, slaughter.

Labels: Atrocities, Conflict, Iran, Iraq, Islamic State, Middle East, United States

posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, May 19, 2015