Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Energy Futures: The Environment?

"Lower prices are not all good news for consumers. The economic benefits are counterbalanced by increasing reliance on the Middle East for imported crude oil and the risk of a sharp rebound in price if investment dries up."
"It would be a grave mistake to index our attention to energy security to changes in the oil price. Now is not the time to relax. Quite the opposite: a period of low oil prices is the moment to reinforce our capacity to deal with future energy security threats."
Fatih Birol, executive director, International Energy Agency

"This is [a] man-made crisis in our industry we have created ... And I think all we're doing is irresponsible."
Mohammed bin Hama al-Rumhy, Oman oil and gas minister

"It's a movement of an era of scarcity to one of abundance; it's a movement from a world of unexpectedly strong demand and tight supplies to a world of ample supplies -- even over-supplies -- and weaker demands."
OPEC's not the only balance of the market. The United States is back in the role of swing producer, a role it hasn't exerted in six decades."
Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman, IHS Inc.

"As we saw back in 2008, high oil prices proved to be unsustainable, and the price fell sharply following the great financial crisis. But this works in the opposite direction. A prolonged period of low oil prices is also unsustainable, as it will induce large investment cuts and reduce the resilience of the oil industry, undermining the future security of supply and setting the scene for another sharp price rise."
Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, deputy minister, petroleum and mineral resources

OPEC fracked - The Commentator
The chief of Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company asserted the country plans to persevere in its record level production of crude oil and low profit, even though short-term economic suffering is the result. Originally, it was felt that Saudi Arabia's move in that direction, persuading all the members of OPEC to agree, was to punish Iran making it difficult for the country under sanctions to sell even on the black market. Now that the agreement over its nuclear program has become history, Iran is preparing to sell freely on the open market again.

The market will become even more crowded with excesses of fossil fuel inventories, forcing prices to remain low enough for investors to hesitate and explorations to halt; barely making extraction and refinement worthwhile. But this is a bubble that will eventually burst, with demand outstripping supply, and the concerns in the industry are that it will be unprepared to meet that demand.

China will not, as the world's largest consumer of fossil fuels, forever burn coal. As it is, their environmental pollution level is sky-high.

In the city of Shenyang airborne grit was so heavy that day looked more like night over the past week-end. Data released by the Shenyang Environmental Protection Agency revealed the density of toxic carbon particles -- PM 2.5 to be over 1,000 micrograms per cubic meter. A full 40 times greater than what the World Health Organization considers a safe level of pollutant. Locally, officials claim the pollution levels topped 1,20, but the Xinhus news agency put that figure at 1,400.

World oil prices are currently 50 percent of what they were last year. The United States, with its robust reliance on shale oil has found its way back into the mass production industry to satisfy a greater portion of its energy needs. And that state of affairs, even though the United States has its own share of carbon-polluting dirty coal plants, has led the American President to declare that his country has no need of a pipeline from Canada to Texas refiners, even while American pipelines have proliferated.
Lakota 24 west of Rocky Mtn House

Canada has the world's third-largest store of petroleum, but these are oilsands, complicated to extract, and energy-intensive in the process; on the other hand so is fracking and just as polluting. Without an eager market in an atmosphere of over-production and cheap prices, there is little incentive for the investment required however, at the present time. China's weakening economy will translate to a pause in its acquisitions to meet its production requirements leading to needed increased employment levels.
"We are hopeful that we will see in 2016 ... a correction. Don't ask me how big, that's for the market to decide. Don't ask me who is going to play that role. It's not going to be OPEC only. This is an international effort. Everyone has a role to play."
Emirati Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei

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