generalspeaking

Bombs, Human and Nuclear, Testing the World

"The level and the state of cooperation between the U.S. and China, and what to do about this test, ultimately depends on how China responds. Meaning, will China respond strongly, in line with the international community? Or will it respond passively? Because effective sanctions ultimately depend on Beijing. I wish I had a crystal ball, but we will really have to see how China reacts."
"North Korea will continue to develop and test its nuclear capabilities in the future regardless of how the international community reacts as it has its stated national objectives to become a nuclear weapon state. It wants to be treated and recognized as such and I think it's safe to assume that the North will continue on that trajectory until it gets what it wants. And what it wants, I don’t think anyone really knows."
Duyeon Kim, Nuclear Policy Program and Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

"The fact that they have apparently departed from that script [China's traditional role coercing Pyongyang to temper bellicose rhetoric] will I think create real anger in China. [Chinese President Xi] Jinping does not want to see these sorts of actions continue because they run the risk of a security crisis in its immediate backyard."
"[Chinese reaction will likely be limited to signing] any international public statement [but not lend itself to weakening the North's public persona]".
"If you were to do so, it would create a potential security and political vacuum on the Peninsula that would be a security risk to China. The risk of an exodus of millions of people from the North into China would be a huge threat to the stability of the Chinese regime and any security vacuum on the Peninsula that could be filled by either South Korea or the U.S. would be something that the Chinese would also be particularly keen to avoid."
John Nilsson-Wright, head, Asia program,  Chatham House, London

Despite the skepticism, the beaming announcement of pride in having set off a hydrogen bomb took the world by surprise. China itself declared that it had no prior notice that North Korea was preparing this newest "H-bomb" test, and it presented as entirely chagrined, and possibly fed up to their gritted teeth by the latest North Korean challenges to the West and particularly the United States and its "stooge", South Korea, setting everything off kilter.

But there it was, the January 6 state media claim that a nuclear weapon was tested. It is known through signals reaching international monitors that part of the claim was validated, a nuclear weapon was indeed exercised But it was not a hydrogen bomb, if that's any comfort, and was seen to be slightly less powerful than the previous 2013 test. Still, according to Norsar, Norway's monitoring group, seismic data of the blast magnitude put it at the size of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

And that in and of itself is a chilling enough reality; that the intellectually and morally-stunted Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has at his disposal bombs of that magnitude. The perspective of those looking in on the matter from an official, authoritative nuclear dimension is that this data reveals that North Korea remains at the initial stages of nuclear weapons' research. Its first test in 2006 was 4.2 magnitude in power, the third in 2013 measured at 5 magnitude and this latest test showed at 4.9.

Setting aside the stagnation of its progress in building ever more powerful nuclear weapons, the very fact that such a lunatic, ungovernable, intransigent regime with the arrogance of its adolescent-popinjay ruler seeking to establish himself as a force to be feared, not reckoned with, represents a volatile danger of immense potential to the world at large. China now has reason to fear and take particular notice. Its nasty little Frankenstein has become too difficult to control.

As North Korea's traditional backer from whom comes supplies and support, North Korea doesn't appear too concerned over driving relations with China into the ground. If the one cautionary control over the decision-making and provocation of the cloistered country with its threats and belligerence has been diminished to that degree of being blindsided by its protege, what does the future portend in the clutches of the North Korean maniac?

China before the turn of the year had sent a medium-ranking delegation to Pyongyang to argue against proceeding with the development of a hydrogen bomb. The modest level of the delegate's representatives offended Kim and he swung into action to convince Beijing that it would not tolerate being relegated to the rank of a subsidiary to whom an insignificant bureaucrat could proffer a lecture of reduced provocation.

North Korea's "emergency investigation" to reveal the presence in the country of Chinese spies  led to its arrest or execution of over 100 Chinese nationals. It was revealed by an insider that North Korea was aggravated over China's overtures to South Korea: "Some Party cadres have even speculated that this move will spell the beginning of the end for Sino-North Korean relations".

China is wary and perturbed with South Korea's dalliance in negotiating with the United States for the placing of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system in the country. And this, at a time when South Korea-China relations were warming. Seoul values the Chinese interventions with North Korea and because of that was not yet fully prepared to proceed with the THAAD system installation. Now, with the advent of the most recent nuclear test, it is more likely that South Korea will decide for its protective installation.

The understanding that the Chinese regime could intervene diplomatically with North Korea's excesses has been dampened substantially in light of the most recent events. The relationship appears to be unravelling. And no one can hypothesize what the result of an unbridled North Korea will next surprise the world with. A situation that pleases no one, not South Korea, nor China, Japan, or the United States.

The sole nation and leader that takes pride and comfort in the troubled consternation of its adversaries is, of course, North Korea. Once again, it has commanded the attention it craves and demands with the fear of the unknown actions and reactions of a pompous and dangerously erratic human time-bomb.

Labels: China, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, South Korea

posted by Pieface @ Wednesday, January 20, 2016