generalspeaking

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

The Menace That Refuses To Die

"As we degrade their capabilities and push them into an ever smaller box, ISIS continues to employ more and more desperate measures."
"These tactics won't succeed."
Major General Patrick Roberson, U.S. military commander in Iraq

"U.S. and Iraqi politicians have been quick to declare victory over the group, using terms like 'defeated' and 'obliterated'."
"The Islamic State is far from obliterated."
Maxwell B. Markusen, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington

"Do you think the Americans can defeat the caliphate? It's a war of attrition."
"When the coalition stops the air strikes, we will return immediately."
"We're still in Syria, even in the areas that you think we left. We still have our suicide bombers ready to attack."
"Our informers are active."
Yehya, Islamic State fighter

"Now they are beginning to use lone wolves in their attacks, supported by a cell of three to four persons."
Iraqi Army Lieutenant General Mizhir Al-Azzawi, Diyala operations commander

Paramilitary fighters and military vehicles are seen during a military operation to retake positions held by Islamic State militants, on the outskirts of Muqdadiyah in Diyala province, north of Baghdad January 25, 2015. REUTERS

A small pocket of land located on the border between Syria and Iraq has been in Islamic State hands for over a year despite pressure from U.S.-backed militias and the Syrian military. The vast territory the Islamic State once held in both Syria and Iraq which just seemed to expand with each new ISIS victory over the demoralized, incapable Iraqi military and that of Syria more focused on targeting Syrian Sunni civilians than the terrorists, has been reduced to a pocket-sized territory where ISIS has dug in among thousands of civilians.

From the Syrian town of Hajin toward the end of November a breakout was staged where an attack against the Syrian Democratic Forces in Gharanij took them by surprise and resulted in a large number of casualties. The event was explained away by Maj.Gen.Roberson as a freak advantage of bad weather,when sandstorms prevented airstrikes. It was good strategy and coordination by a large group of battle-hardened terrorists, a reality that the U.S. military is obviously loathe to admit.

They may have lost their caliphate's broad territorial gains and their capital Raqqa, but the Islamofascist ideology that inspires and carries them forward in jihad burns as strong as ever; like the Taliban in Afghanistan they retreat when seen as a required tactic, await new opportunities and strike whenever feasible -- and in the process leave their trademark sacrifices to Islam. The propaganda that was so hugely successful in their terrorism potential to strike fear into the minds of all those they targeted remains intact.

Their broadcasts continue aggressively as though their power and their territorial caliphate had never been reduced. Their digital caliphate remains robust and capable of attracting new recruits. They have maintained a level of security in Diyala Province in Iraq through the use of roadblocks. They have succeeded in kidnapping and slaughtering Iraqi government officials and engaging in shooting battles with Iraqi troops.

According to ISIS expert Maxwell Markuson there have been more frequent Islamic State attacks this year than had occurred in 2015. Two years ago, 60 monthly attacks took place, that was advanced to 75 a month more recently. Thousands of its fighters have been killed or captured in the last year, but they appear to have little concern as replacements continue to fill the ranks diminished by those conflicts. An estimated 20,000 to 30,000 ISIL members remain to fight for their cause in Iraq and Syria.

What that number represents is equal to the totals that represented the Islamic State caliphate when it was at its greatest strength, in 2014. Back in September the Syrian Democratic Forces announced a "final push" against the remnants of Islamic State in Hajin. The fighting to overcome their forces is a difficult one, observed U.S. authorities since ISIS fighters have nothing now left to lose; their diminished territory and capabilities leave them with everything to gain should they succeed.

The Hajin area hosts an estimated 2,000 to 2,500 fighters which speaks to the ferocity of their determination and the defenses they have put into place to secure their victories. Accusations of their use of civilians in the area -- numbering roughly 7,000 -- as human shields may enrage the U.S. and the Syrian Democratic Forces but cut no ice with terrorists who demonstrated to the world their enjoyment in horrifying onlookers reacting to their relish of imposing gruelling and gruesome deaths on those they captured.

Since the "final push" in September, 827 Islamic State fighters and 481 Syrian Democratic Force fighters along with 308 civilians have been killed. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group based in London, England, lays the blame of civilian deaths to the airstrikes -- courtesy of the U.S.