The Global Pandemic

"That [Italy's medical community overwhelmed by the crush of coronavirus] could very easily happen here in very short order."
"The COVID-19 situation is dire and may soon be completely out of control. Health-care resources are finite, and thus we will not be able to provide care for all who become ill."
"We already run at 100 percent capacity on most days in the intensive care units in Ontario and if we get a [surge] of patients all at once ... there is no system that can handle that. It's impossible."
"I don't want to have to be in the position, which is something people are planning for, to have to triage resources. That's something we haven't really experienced in Canada, but that is the reality in Italy today -- decisions are made as to who gets access to critical care and who doesn't and people who don't are dying."
"If we can spread out the number of people who get infected over time, maybe the system can adjust."
Dr.Michael Warner, medical director of critical care, Michael Garron Hospital, Toronto

A woman wears a mask at Carlo Alberto Square after the government decree closing schools and cinemas and urging people to work from home and not stand closer than one meter to one another, in Turin, Italy, March 5, 2020.

Massimo Pinca/Reuters

Three weeks or so ago, there were but three confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy. That number soared to over 15,000 to the present, with over a thousand people dead from the disease, making Italy the new global epicentre of the pandemic. Italy has instituted lockdowns and quarantines, starting in its most-infected north, and ending up with the entire country included. Last Wednesday alone Italy saw 184 deaths from the coronavirus. The entire country is on lockdown, other than pharmacies and food stores, with a military-type enforcement system.

Countries the world over are preparing for the invasion of the novel coronavirus. Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain Sweden and Switzerland have all reported an increasing number of their nationals diagnosed with COVID-10. In a mere week's time, between 20 and 30 percent increase has taken place, and it is accelerating almost exponentially. And these are the countries with advanced, sophisticated health care systems.

In China, citizens returning from vacations abroad are undergoing rigorous inspections, considered to be potential carriers of the virus that originated in Wuhan, central China. Europe is now regarded with the same kind of suspicion as China was by Europe only a month ago. Travellers coming from the U.K., Italy and Iran have in fact brought infections back with them into China. Travellers arriving from South Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, France, Spain, German or the U.S. now must undergo a 14-day quarantine in Shanghai.

Experts busy tracking the spread of the coronavirus predict that in mere weeks Europe could be facing a surge in cases similar to what has locked Italy into quarantine. Epidemiologists have developed mathematical models tracking the virus, showing a sharp trajectory in Spain, Germany, France and Britain.  "Italy is about two weeks ahead of Britain and the rest of Europe", advised Francois Balloux, director, Genetics Institute at University College London.


Left unchecked, according to epidemiologists' observations, the number of infections double every five days with infected individuals capable on average of passing the virus on to an average of about 2.5 other people. Valuable time had been wasted by a lack of urgency in previous weeks when the epidemic was beginning to emerge in Europe. Should the virus continue its current expansion rate, a country like Spain with 3,000 cases could realize 250,000 infections in the space of a month.

"All tourists, all travel, all vacations, and all foreigners who cannot demonstrate a credible reason to enter Denmark will be denied entrance at the Danish border", declared Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. The country of 5.7 million has acquired 801 confirmed cases of coronavirus with no deaths to this point. "We'll remove or eliminate every obstacle necessary to deliver our people the care that they need and that they're entitled to. No resource will be spared, nothing whatsoever", announced U.S. President Donald Trump speaking to Americans on Friday.

And in Iran the army was given 24 hours to clear the nation's streets. Every Iranian in the country is to be tested for coronavirus, a population of 81 million people. They will all be confined to their homes as the number of infected has leaped forward by over 1,000 to 11,364, with 514 deaths. At the holy city of Qom, mass graves are being dug, the epicentre of the outbreak, obviously connected to the custom of the pious being encouraged to lick holy shrines.

Iran's leaders have accused Israel of deliberately spreading the virus in Iran. More latterly, an Iranian cleric has announced it to be acceptable to make use of any vaccines released by Israel, should there be no alternative. It will be an interesting exercise to see whether news emerges that this man has been arrested and will be tried as a traitor.

And from China, the accusation by Zhao Lijian, a spokesperson of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs that the U.S. is guilty of spreading the virus to the city of Wuhan in Hubei province. And there are consequences thereof: China has withheld medical supplies to the U.S. A number of large U.S. pharmaceutical companies outsourced to China, taking advantage of cheaper labour costs and lower taxes for maximum profit.

And the consequences of that situation where business acumen has gone disastrously wrong is this: "It's possible that the U.S. military brought the virus to Wuhan. The U.S. has to be transparent and make public its figures. The U.S. owes us an explanation", stated Zhao Lijian, ever so reasonably.

Amazingly, among the Chinese themselves, this assertion failed to resonate convincingly. A barrage of Twitter responses ensued, among them this one:
"A MOFA spokesman made such a conspiracy to confuse the public … Shame on you."
"Why not look into the Wuhan P4 Lab? It's possible that the lab leaked the virus to the downtown area. The lab needs to be transparent and make public its figures. The lab owes us an explanation", demanded Heatherm Huan, a Chinese citizen. 

Soldiers wearing protective face masks march past the closed entrance gates to the Forbidden City, usually crowded with tourists before the new coronavirus outbreak in Beijing, March 12, 202