Strict Controls During COVID Result in Fewer Deaths
"There's a lot of learning to be had from those countries where they've not had the same excess mortality.""We do need to learn from those countries and see what they've done."Dr.Thomas Beaney, researcher, physician, Imperial College London"I did think the lockdowns were a cure worse than the disease. I was very much on the side of 'we have to open up, we're doing more harm than good'. I changed my mind on that.""Probably the best and the cheapest policy you could have [tight border controls]."Israeli economist, Ariel Karlinsky, researcher, Kohelet Economic Forum, Jerusalem
During this time of SARS-CoV-2 virus causing pathogenic infections all over the world many of the countries that reacted with lockdowns and strict isolation procedures have seen a plateau in what is described as "excess deaths", while other countries that adopted a more relaxed, open attitude to the incursion of the novel coronavirus have suffered more severely. What is a real phenomenon is that many countries have seen more people dying during this time of COVID-19 than would occur on an average year.
Australia, Taiwan and South Korea rate highly for their success in managing to contain the coronavirus. There, no 'excess deaths' appear to have occurred. They have, in fact, recorded fewer mortality cases than what occurred in 'normal' years, an outcome underscoring the success of their public health strategies. Excess-death data reflecting what is occurring across the globe has yielded intriguing trends that just might promise to guide the world to best practises in response to future pandemics.
Researcher-economist Ariel Karlinsky decided he would create a "world mortality dataset" in part to look further into suspicions that enacting strict public health measures to counteract the novel coronavirus had been unnecessary and counter-productive. His data set provides information on 77 countries drawn from a variety of sources, and regularly updated. In the process it destroyed his own hypothesis that the presence of the coronavirus was over-rated in danger, and government reactions were too restrictive.
Excess deaths are viewed by many experts as a gold standard of measurement as opposed to the flawed alternative statistics as an indicator of how grievously the pandemic has afflicted the world. The efficiency and extensiveness of testing relate to the reliability of the number of lab-confirmed cases. Mortality linked to the coronavirus can be difficult to compare, reflecting different criteria in various countries in counting individuals' COVID deaths. Some countries, additionally, have likely taken steps to hide the toll of the pandemic.
While not specifying the cause of death, excess mortality is more comprehensive comparably between nations according to Jason Oke, senior statistician with Oxford University's Nuffield Department of Primary Health Care Sciences. "It also takes into account possible side effects or indirect effects of the pandemic. It does truly measure the impact of the pandemic."
Canada, according to a Statistics Canada report issued last month, saw 13,798 additional deaths over what might be expected by mid-December 2020, based on previous years, after accounting for the aging population. Representing an increase of roughly five percent. Just over 14,000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 by last December, representing roughly 42 excess deaths per 100,000 people, according to Ode's Oxford team.
There were 132 per 100,000 in comparison in the United States during 2020; 100 in England and Wales; 33 in Germany; and 175 excess deaths per 100.000 in Poland. Most interesting: the minority of countries that were able to keep the coronavirus under control with a variety of public health measures where Australia saw a three percent decrease n excess deaths in 2020, New Zealand a six percent reduction, and Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore were flat or lower, according to Karlinsky's list.
Countries like South Korea that are rated highly for containing the
coronavirus have seen no excess deaths, or have reported even less
mortality than in “normal” years. Photo by Heo RWhat has stood out in death-negative countries were tight restrictions on international travel, along with targeted lockdowns and aggressive contact tracing of those cases that did occur. In countries like Canada and Israel the range of excess deaths where less-stringent measures were enacted, leaves it unclear how well those lockdown formulas succeeded. Denmark and Norway had relative reductions in mortality while Sweden which eschewed strict lockdown measures experienced 1.5 percent more deaths than in recent years.
Excess deaths leave open-ended the cause of some such deaths reflecting the crude nature of excess death data. Some researchers feel it to be likely that some countries with large gaps between COVID numbers and excess mortality under-count fatal coronavirus cases. Russia, as an example, recorded 72,000 COVID-19 deaths and 425,000 excess deaths since the start of the pandemic.
Excess mortality in some instances may result from other causes such as health-care systems restricting or deterring people from seeking medical help for heart disease or cancer, according to Dr.Beaney. Both Alberta and British Columbia reported sharp increases in fatal overdoses in 2020. And there are other issues at play that more research may reveal. For example, relative reductions in deaths due to air pollution decrease and road traffic, as a result of COVID restrictions.
Labels: "Excess Deaths" Research, COVID Deaths, Novel Coronavirus, Statistics
posted by Pieface @ Saturday, April 10, 2021
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