Monday, February 14, 2022

High Alert in Eastern Europe

High Alert in Eastern Europe

"We're in a window when an invasion could begin at any time, and to be clear, that includes during the Olympics."
"Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border."
U.S.Secretary of State Antony Blinken 

"I urge all Canadians in Ukraine to make the necessary arrangements to leave the country now."
"Our highest priority remains the safety and security of Canadians."
Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly
 
"We are ready to continue results-oriented diplomacy that addresses the security concerns of the United States, Russia and Europe, consistent with our values and with the principle of reciprocity."
"We’ve continued to make that clear to Russia, in close coordination with our European allies and partners."
"We are also ready to respond decisively alongside those allies and partners should Russia choose to take military action."
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan
van Gren-class amphibious warship RTS Pyotr Morgunov (117) entering the Black Sea on Feb. 9, 2022. Photo by Yörük Işık‏ used with permission
 
Canada's Foreign Affairs department at the beginning of February 'asked' Canadians to avoid all travel to Ukraine "because of the ongoing Russian threats and the risk of armed conflict". Any Canadians already in Ukraine were urged to leave the country "while commercial means are still available". That message has undergone a stark change, the government now urgently calling all Canadians to immediately leave Ukraine. 
 
In effect, following the United States and United Kingdom reflecting fears of an imminent Russian invasion.

In the United States, officials warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin could launch an attack imminently on Ukraine. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan Friday announced that Russia has sufficient forces gathered now to conduct a major military operation against Ukraine; that an assault was likely to begin "any day now".
 
PHOTO: This handout video grab released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Feb. 9, 2022 shows combat crews of the S-400 air defense system taking up combat duty during joint exercises in Belarus.
Russian Defense Ministry/AFP via Getty Images
This handout video grab released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Feb. 9, 2022 shows combat crews of the S-400 air defense system taking up combat duty during joint exercises in Belarus.
 
Speaking at a White House briefing no specific evidence was given, but Mr. Sullivan cited U.S. Intelligence belief that President Putin could order an invasion prior to the Winter Olympics in Beijing concluding. He spoke of the possibility of a rapid assault on Kyiv and that any Americans remaining in Ukraine should leave within the next 24-48 hours. A Russian invasion could begin with an air assault after which departure would be extremely difficult.

It is as yet not clear whether Mr. Putin has given an order to initiate an invasion A private American company's commercial satellite images showed new Russian military deployments at several sites close to the Ukraine border. President Joe Biden in  his starkest warning, stated he would not send troops to rescue any American citizens who chose to remain in Ukraine, in the event of a Russian assault. "Things could go crazy quickly", he said.
A uniformed soldier stands with an assault rifle in front of a dozen others
Dozens of civilians have been joining Ukraine's army reserves in recent weeks.(AP: Efrem Lukatsky)
 
A remote meeting was held by Mr. Biden with the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Poland and Romania, along with NATO's and the EU's heads. With alarm spreading, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson along with a handful of other nations urged its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. American officials believe the crisis could be approaching a critical point. Rhetoric from Moscow appears to be more belligerent.

More Russian military equipment has been arriving in Belarus where Russa and its neighbour have been conducting joint military exercises and naval drills in the Black Sea. Six Russian warships are joining the fleet in the Black Sea. Japan, Latvia, Norway and the Netherland have informed their citizens they must immediately leave Ukraine. Israel is evacuating families of its embassy staff. 

Map shows where Russia's troops are positioned.

 

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