Grimly Alarming 'War Games'

Photo: AFP

"China’s DF-26, an anti-ship missile tested and 'demonstrated' by the People’s Liberation Army reportedly able to travel 2,000 miles to destroy carriers, does present a credible threat to be taken seriously. Yet much of the hype seems to leave out certain critical comments made by senior U.S. Navy leaders and various adaptations the modern Navy has made to respond to or 'counter' China’s often-discussed A2/AD (anti-access/area denial) strategy."

"With a range of up to 2,500 miles and 4,000-pound payload, with satellite targeting the DF-26 in theory could strike U.S. Navy warships across the western Pacific Ocean. 'Even when launched from deeper inland areas of China, the DF-26 has a range far-reaching enough to cover the South China Sea', an unnamed military expert told Global Times in a report several years ago."

"However, upon closer examination and careful reading of public comments from senior Navy officials, there certainly seems to be room for debate on this question. While certainly nobody questions the seriousness of a threat of this kind, and clearly the Chinese weapons are taken seriously, yet some of the threat language might accurately be assessed as 'hype' given the steady stream of ongoing advances in layered Carrier and Carrier Strike Group defenses."

Kris Osborn, Military Affairs Editor, 19FortyFive, President, Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization

DF-26

According to boasts by Chinese scientists, the new hypersonic weapons China possesses could destroy the newest aircraft carrier in the American Navy. A research team on a war game software platform that China's military uses, indicated Chinese forces sinking the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier fleet with a volley of 24 hypersonic anti-ship missiles. A report in the South China Morning Post claimed the results of the hypersonic strikes, made public for the first time in a May paper published by the Chinese-language Journal of Test and Management Technology. 

Computer-generated battle scenarios are often used by military planners to game out strategies. However, they cannot be overly relied upon in real-life conflict where terrain, weather and other unforeseen factors are capable of disrupting weaponry, warn experts in the field. The strategic scenario used a platform of an attack on American vessels that had steamed toward an island claimed in the disputed South China Sea by China.

Some of the missiles in the three-wave attack, according to researchers, were fired from as far distant as the Gobi Desert. The entire play relies on a diplomatic confrontation over the waterway and its rich resources that has escalated for years in a landscape of overlapping territorial claims between regional nations and an increasingly aggressive Beijing.

With China determined to extend its reach by claiming and militarizing islands, reefs and rocks, the United States Navy has accelerated its own 'freedom of navigation' patrols in universally recognized international waters that Beijing claims as its own. China has been developing its missile arsenal rapidly, including hypersonic technology, as a reflection of its focus on building its naval capabilities.

The Chinese military had three days earlier tested a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile named the DF-27, according to a leak of a top-secret report, by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff intelligence directorate, several months back. The DF-27, according to the document, possessed a high probability of capacity to evade U.S. ballistic missile defence, designed to boost Beijing's ability to strike large parts of the Pacific. That would include the U.S. territory of Guam, and its strategic military base.

China last year deployed versions of the new missile capable of attacking land targets and ships. Also revealed was that the DF-27 has increased potential as a "carrier killer" vastly out-performing its predecessors. Researchers from the North University of China in the latest war game, concluded that almost every U.S. surface vessel was shattered by the hypersonic attack and sank eventually.

USS Gerald R. Ford Aircraft Carrier (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)

"Extreme Uneasiness and Horror"

"[The test launch of the Hwasong 18 intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday would make enemies] experience a clearer security crisis,and constantly strike extreme uneasiness and horror into them by taking fatal and offensive counteractions until they abandon their senseless thinking and reckless acts."

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un 

"[The development of the Hwasong-18 will] extensively reform the strategic deterrence components of the Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea, radically promote the effectiveness of its nuclear counterattack posture and bring about a change in the practicality of its offensive military strategy."

North Korean state media outlet KCNA

 

“At an earlier stage of North Korea’s missile program, liquid-fuel ICBMs represented the quickest and easiest path to achieving the country’s historic goal of being able to threaten the continental United States."

“The addition of solid-fuel ICBMs to the missile force would make it a more credible strategic deterrent by providing a more capable, less vulnerable pre-emptive and retaliatory capability."

Joseph Dempsey, research associate, International Institute for Strategic Studies

North Korea says it launched a new type of Hwasong-18 Intercontinental ballistic missile using solid fuel, on Thursday, according to state media KCNA. Courtesy Rodong Sinmun

Both North Korea and China enjoy making extravagantly pompous statements referring to themselves and the place they hold in the world. they both share a sense of awe of their pre-eminence that exists mostly in their collective mindset, and seem to believe their every utterance inspires fear and loathing in the minds of their presumed detractors against whom they struggle to contain malign intentions to do them great harm, while they are themselves the paranoiac threat-masters of global violence. They ascribe to their presumed enemies all the threatening qualities that are their own.

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un -- impressed with his own belief in his superior intelligence and profound leadership of an impoverished nation grappling constantly with food insecurity, yet heavily investing in advanced technologies meant for no purpose other than to initially intimidate and threaten and eventually to deploy in a bid to destroy the potential for those it identifies as awaiting an opportunity to destroy the Hermit Kingdom, proposing by its actions to act before they do -- presents as an amateur yet sinister director of a very bad film.

Several days ago North Korea officially announced its testing of a new solid-fuel ICBM, meant to "radically promote" the preparation of its forces for an eventual denouement of the forces that threaten its own. Experts interpret the latest provocations from North Korea as a new type of weaponry meant to facilitate missile launches with scant warning. This represents the North's first use of solid propellants in an intermediate-range ICBM. Bringing North Korea into a very specialized field of deploying missiles faster during an actual conflict.

 

 

The weapon remains in the development stage according to its defence ministry, with more time and effort required to perfect the advanced technology, warning that more tests are on the way. The country's state media released photographs of its leader witnessing the launch in the company of his sister, wife and daughter. This, in response yet again -- and predictably -- to joint exercises carried out by South Korea and the United States air forces, drills that were staged with U.S. B-52H bombers joined by F-34A, F-14 and F-15 fighter jets.

Recent U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises certainly exacerbate the situation, sending Kim into paroxysms of paranoia and leading to a series of missile tests in a sabre-rattling contest that no one would win. Japan, threatened by the North's constant barrages that enter Japan's zone of air defence, conducted separate air drills with U.S. B-52 bomber jets on Friday, with four U.S. F-35 fighters and four Japanese F-15 fighters. These are not 'games' but tense back-and-forth feeler-threats.

North Korea's largest ballistic missiles use liquid fuel, requiring loading with propellant at the launch site, time-consuming and dangerous. A former U.S. government weapons expert, Vann Van Diepen, explained that solid-fuel missiles are easier and safer to operate, requiring less logistical support, and making them harder to detect and more survivable than liquid fuel missiles. Analysts feel however, that the U.S. could distinguish between solid' or liquid-fuelled launches with early warning satellites capable of detecting differences in infrared data various missile types produce.

"For any country that operates large-scale, missile-based nuclear forces, solid-propelled missiles are an incredibly desirable capability because they don't need to be fuelled immediately prior to use."

"These capabilities are much more responsive in a time of crisis."

“I think it demonstrates technological progress, but I would not describe this as a game changer.”  

“Based on their competency with materials and engineering that we’ve seen in other areas, developing a robust enough reentry vehicle is not a substantial technical challenge,”

Ankit Panda, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

"North Korea could have opted to focus on collecting data necessary to check its features at different stages than going full speed at the first launch."

"As it was a test that did not demonstrate its normal flight pattern, North Korea will likely conduct some more tests."

Kim Dong-yup, professor, University of North Korean Studies

North Korea says it launched a new type of Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile using solid fuel, on Thursday   Courtesy Rodong Sinmun

Ready or Not, World: Nuclear Drills

"We will deploy not only nuclear weapons but also the newest super-nuclear weapons in order to defend our territory if necessary, in case our adversaries and rivals take reckless and foolish steps."

"We have agreed that we're going to keep some of the ammunition [used in the war games between Belarus and Russia] if we need it so that we don't move it back and forth."

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko

 

"We’ve seen some of those troops inch closer to that border [questioning Russian troop pullout claims]. We even see them stocking up their blood supplies."

"You don’t do these sort of things for no reason, and you certainly don’t do them if you’re getting ready to pack up and go home."

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin

In this photo released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on April 13, 2021, Russian nuclear submarines Prince Vladimir, above, and Yekaterinburg are harbored at a Russian naval base in Gazhiyevo, Kola Peninsula, Russia. (Vadim Savitsky/Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

It is startling news, enough so to make blood run cold, but it is not new news. Months back at the end of 2021, an announcement had come through that Russia and Belarus were planning to mount war games  inclusive of Russia's nuclear forces. And although this is a pre-existing agenda, re-announcing it at this precise time when tensions are already sky-high reflecting the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, makes it all the more chilling.

 

It is a not-very-original message to the West that just in case it had slipped their minds, Russia has a sizeable arsenal of nuclear weaponry and the means by which they can be delivered, by sea or land or by air. Comes now a sweeping exercise of Russia's latest advances in nuclear 'defences'. For after all, Vladimir Putin has stated frequently of late that his country's tender position of insecurity is not only troubling to him but it requires changes or otherwise ... left unsaid. 

 

Not that he would unleash a nuclear device, just reminding everyone. 

In this photo taken from a footage distributed by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Sept. 26, 2020, Russian rockets launch from missile systems during the main stage of the Kavkaz-2020 strategic command-and-staff exercises at the Kapustin Yar training ground, Russia. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

President Lukashenko is in essence reminding those who regard him as an outright dictator -- whose sham re-election brought Belorusians out on the streets in protest post-corrupt-2020 election, expressing their anger at being once again manipulated by a government they detest -- that he has the trust of Putin. The protesters were so vehemently adamant that their president step away from his throne that Belarusian police and military found themselves despite violent reactions, unable to disperse the crowds. Of necessity calling in Russian troops to handle Mr. Lukashenko's rejection by his people.

Indebted to Russia, and with no especial fondness for Ukraine, he is more than willing as a staunch ally to do his part in presenting a common front against ill-will from the West and he is practically salivating at the prospect of acquiring for his own military, arms of the calibre that Russia has now in its updated military arsenal. Having nuclear bases re-established in Belarus 'just in case' is the icing on his cake of expectations. 

He is dreaming of gracefully accepting 'gifts' from Moscow of surface-to-air missiles systems, but if need be is prepared to buy them from Russia. Beaming with self-satisfaction, he made an in-person inspection of the Russian-Belarusian drills. The nuclear arsenal that Belarus once hosted as a Soviet satrapy went back to Russia in the 1990s. Belarus has a vote coming up on constitutional changes to permit the weapons to be restored.

That Moscow is prohibited by international treaties from transferring its nuclear arsenal to another country may or may not influence Vladimir Putin. The nuclear drills programmed for Saturday will cap off the games, closing on Sunday. "I saw some high-tech weaponry that we really need, including Iskander-M [short-range ballistic systems]. We're going to buy it or receive it as a gift from other elder brothers", said Lukashenko. 

Belarus, he offered, could host Russia's newest S-400 missile defence systems, which could handily be deployed "somewhere near Minsk so that we can see what's going on in Kyiv, in Warsaw and beyond." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov in response to a question relating to Lukashenko's earlier statements on retaining Russian troops in Belarus, said: "It is not under discussion so far".

Once again, Russia's defence minister stated definitively the intention that all Russian troops are to leave Belarus once the drills are over. Lukashenko in effect contradicting that by describing the situation as fluid, that this is a matter he and Mr. Putin would discuss. "They will stay at long as necessary. Maybe [the withdrawal] will happen tomorrow. If we decide it will happen in a month - they will stay for a month."

Ukrainian servicemen survey the impact areas from shells that landed close to their positions during the night on a front line outside Popasna, Luhansk region, eastern Ukraine, on February 14, 2022. (AP/Vadim Ghirda)

High Alert in Eastern Europe

"We're in a window when an invasion could begin at any time, and to be clear, that includes during the Olympics."

"Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border."

U.S.Secretary of State Antony Blinken 

"I urge all Canadians in Ukraine to make the necessary arrangements to leave the country now."

"Our highest priority remains the safety and security of Canadians."

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly

 

"We are ready to continue results-oriented diplomacy that addresses the security concerns of the United States, Russia and Europe, consistent with our values and with the principle of reciprocity."

"We’ve continued to make that clear to Russia, in close coordination with our European allies and partners."

"We are also ready to respond decisively alongside those allies and partners should Russia choose to take military action."

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan

van Gren-class amphibious warship RTS Pyotr Morgunov (117) entering the Black Sea on Feb. 9, 2022. Photo by Yörük Işık‏ used with permission

 

Canada's Foreign Affairs department at the beginning of February 'asked' Canadians to avoid all travel to Ukraine "because of the ongoing Russian threats and the risk of armed conflict". Any Canadians already in Ukraine were urged to leave the country "while commercial means are still available". That message has undergone a stark change, the government now urgently calling all Canadians to immediately leave Ukraine. 

 

In effect, following the United States and United Kingdom reflecting fears of an imminent Russian invasion.

In the United States, officials warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin could launch an attack imminently on Ukraine. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan Friday announced that Russia has sufficient forces gathered now to conduct a major military operation against Ukraine; that an assault was likely to begin "any day now".

 

Russian Defense Ministry/AFP via Getty Images

This handout video grab released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Feb. 9, 2022 shows combat crews of the S-400 air defense system taking up combat duty during joint exercises in Belarus.

 

Speaking at a White House briefing no specific evidence was given, but Mr. Sullivan cited U.S. Intelligence belief that President Putin could order an invasion prior to the Winter Olympics in Beijing concluding. He spoke of the possibility of a rapid assault on Kyiv and that any Americans remaining in Ukraine should leave within the next 24-48 hours. A Russian invasion could begin with an air assault after which departure would be extremely difficult.

It is as yet not clear whether Mr. Putin has given an order to initiate an invasion A private American company's commercial satellite images showed new Russian military deployments at several sites close to the Ukraine border. President Joe Biden in  his starkest warning, stated he would not send troops to rescue any American citizens who chose to remain in Ukraine, in the event of a Russian assault. "Things could go crazy quickly", he said.

Dozens of civilians have been joining Ukraine's army reserves in recent weeks.(AP: Efrem Lukatsky)

 

A remote meeting was held by Mr. Biden with the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Poland and Romania, along with NATO's and the EU's heads. With alarm spreading, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson along with a handful of other nations urged its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. American officials believe the crisis could be approaching a critical point. Rhetoric from Moscow appears to be more belligerent.

More Russian military equipment has been arriving in Belarus where Russa and its neighbour have been conducting joint military exercises and naval drills in the Black Sea. Six Russian warships are joining the fleet in the Black Sea. Japan, Latvia, Norway and the Netherland have informed their citizens they must immediately leave Ukraine. Israel is evacuating families of its embassy staff.