Testing, Testing ...
"There's what Russia says. And then there's what Russia does. And we haven't seen any pullback of its forces.""We continue to see critical units moving toward the border, not away from the border."U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken
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| Russian army tanks move back to their permanent base after drills in Russia [Russian Defence Ministry Press Service via AP Photo] |
Wednesday was designated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a patriotic holiday. this, in puckish response to reports that Russia could invade on that very day. "No one can love our home as we can. And only we, together, can protect our home", he said to his citizens. And so, Ukrainians responded by singing the national anthem, and waving Ukrainian flags in defiance of what may turn out to be a conflagration from a volatile situation, tensely expectant.
Wednesday came and Wednesday went, the Russia sneered in contempt. Even as the United States and NATO continue to warn that troops were still arriving to join those that had been stationed at the border with Ukraine for months on end. While Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that he/Russia have no desire for war he has also been intransigent in diplomatic talks over his security concerns for Russia; to placate those concerns NATO would have to submit to Russia's terms.
The cyberattack that hit the Ukrainian defence ministry was a serious one. Moscow denied involvement, Ukraine is convinced it is the source, and with good reason. Punishment for Ukraine's ambition to seek membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; for refusing to accede to Russia's expectation that it must return to the Soviet fold, for insisting it has every right to remain sovereign, to make its own decisions over its future and that of its people.
The standoff continues with Russia's defence ministry stating that its forces were pulling back following exercises in southern and western military districts adjacent Ukraine. Its video showed, the ministry emphasized, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and self-propelled artillery units exiting the Crimean peninsula. Although Moscow seized Crimea in 2014, under international law it remains an integral part of Ukraine within Ukraine's vast geography.
The risk of Russian aggression against Ukraine would remain for the entirety of February; Russia could still attack "with essentially no, or little-to-no, warning", stated a senior Western intelligence official. Moving troops and tanks back and forth was not proof of a pullout, observed NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. "What we see is that they have increased the number of troops and more troops are on their way. So, so far, no de-escalation", he stated.
There is, in fact, satellite imagery in NATO's possession proving the failure by Russia to pull back its troops. Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine's Defence Minister, possesses intelligence that similarly shows no sign of a Russian pull-back The combined strength of Russian military and pro-Russian separatist forces near Ukraine's borders stood at roughly 140,000, he acknowledged.
Is this a case of Vladimir Putin simply enjoying the opportunity to put Europe on edge? His devilish spirit of confrontation and innocence of intent as a provocateur-par-excellence on full display? It is a power play and he excels at it. Russia has invested steeply in recent years in upgrading wholesale its military capabilities, in the possession of advanced technological military machines equal of any in the arsenals of the West.
But no, this is deadly serious. If the West really, truly wants de-escalation it must take seriously Moscow's concerns over its fragility in the face of near-abroad neighbours' adversarial positions, allying themselves with an ideological collective diametrically opposed to Russia's own. Russia needs distancing, and NATO stubbornly resists creating the necessary corridor between East and West that Russia requires for security comfort.
Ukraine has increased its border guard numbers on its frontier with Belarus allied with Russia, where about 9,000 Russian troops are involved in military exercises. Hackers continue to bombard Ukraine's defence ministry through vulnerabilities which has led the ministry to reroute traffic to servers in the United States temporarily.
NATO military commanders are preparing plans for new combat units to be deployed in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia designed to fill a gap until additional troops can be deployed to the front line if needed. Where they are already in place in Poland and the Baltic states. The U.K. is prepared to double its force size in Estonia and dispatch tanks and armoured fighting vehicles to the Baltic republic bordering Russia; part of NATO deployment.
Labels: Defence Preparations, Denials, Invasion, NATO, Russia, Ukraine
posted by Pieface @ Friday, February 18, 2022
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