"A 10 percent tariff passed through to the consumer will raise gasoline and diesel prices about 15 cents per gallon [for American consumers]."

"The extent to which the consumer is affected depends on where the consumer lives."

"Prices could spike well over 30 cents a gallon [if Canadian oil producers divert supplies from the Midwest and create localized shortages in response to the Trump Administration's threats of a 10 percent levy on Canadian oil and gas]."

Andy Lipow, Lipow Oil Associates 

"95 percent of the heating oil used by most Mainers to hear their  homes comes from refineries in Canada."

"The Air National Guard Base in Bangor depends completely on jet fuel and diesel from Canada."

Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins

 

"Under 25 percent tariffs ... the loss of U.S. GDP would increase to up to 0.9 percent, and  up to 5.6 percent in Canada with full retaliation, or 3.8 percent without."

Scotiabank November analysis

 

"The automobile industry is one of the most  highly integrated in North America, with parts sometimes crossing a border half a dozen times before final assembly of a vehicle."

Toronto Dominion Bank Economics

 

"The rule of thumb is that it takes three to four weeks between an oil price movement and a corresponding change in prices at the pump."

"That means drivers should notice it toward the end of February."

Pavel Molchanov, Raymond James, Houston 

Wisconsin Refinery

 

In U.S. regions more reliant on Canadian oil supply, retail prices could begin to spike sooner. Maine, for example, is where the majority of fuel retailers buy their product on spot markets priced at the New York Harbour. Once tariffs raise pricing on that critical pricing hub, gas stations would swiftly pass the cost on to consumers. 

And then, there is this to consider: crude oil is an import lacking an immediate alternative since many U.S. refineries are specifically configured to refine the heavier oil arriving from Alberta. The United States buys Alberta oil at a discount; it represents some of the cheapest oil available anywhere. These refineries  would be incapable of switching immediately to processing domestic oil if crude oil from Canada was  hit with a 25 percent premium.

 

Fuel prices may rise suddenly by some 15 cents a gallon in response to President Trump's threat to carry through with a 10 percent tariff on Canadian oil and gas; basic commodities he has boasted that America doesn't need from Canada. His threat to hit both Canada and Mexico with punitive taxes in the form of tariffs will also have a profound, albeit not ruinous effect on American consumers.

 

About four million barrels a day of Canadian crude is imported into American refining and fuel markets. A last-minute delay of the threatened tariffs meant to be imposed by February 1st has seen the imminent imposition put off for 30 days. Whether there will be another extension, or whether the axe will fall in thirty days' time is anyone's guess. 

On the U.S. West coast where fuel is already the most expensive market in the U.S., prices could rise 20 cents per gallon. Western Pennsylvania, Montana and Washington state are reliant on Canadian crude oil supplies, while Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire rely on Canadian gasoline and diesel imports. New Brunswick-based Irving Oil Ltd. informed customers in New Hampshire that propane prices will be raised in reflection of Trump's tariffs.

 

Diesel was $3.70 a gallon last weekend, while gasoline prices average d $3.10 a gallon at U.S. pumps, according to data derived from the American Automobile Association. Canada/Mexico tariffs once imposed could drop U.S. GDP by 0.3 percent and conceivably could have the effect of 286,000 job losses, raising per-household costs by roughly US$670 annually.

 

Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery

 

"Unfortunately for Midwest refineries, heavy oil cannot easily be substituted with the light oil that makes up most of U.S. shale oil production. StanChart has pointed out that such a switch would create a significant loss of optimization in the highly expensive cracking units that require feed from vacuum distillation of the heavy residual obtained by simple distillation."

"Canada has supplied 99.89% of all heavy imports into Midwest refineries over the past decade; the low substitutability of this flow implies that a tariff would largely feed through to local retail prices. Refiners will also have to cut runs due to the loss of refinery optimization."

 

"A 10 percent tariff passed through to the consumer will raise gasoline and diesel prices about 15 cents per gallon [for American consumers]."

"The extent to which the consumer is affected depends on where the consumer lives."

"Prices could spike well over 30 cents a gallon [if Canadian oil producers divert supplies from the Midwest and create localized shortages in response to the Trump Administration's threats of a 10 percent levy on Canadian oil and gas]."

Andy Lipow, Lipow Oil Associates 

"95 percent of the heating oil used by most Mainers to hear their  homes comes from refineries in Canada."

"The Air National Guard Base in Bangor depends completely on jet fuel and diesel from Canada."

Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins

 

"Under 25 percent tariffs ... the loss of U.S. GDP would increase to up to 0.9 percent, and  up to 5.6 percent in Canada with full retaliation, or 3.8 percent without."

Scotiabank November analysis

 

"The automobile industry is one of the most  highly integrated in North America, with parts sometimes crossing a border half a dozen times before final assembly of a vehicle."

Toronto Dominion Bank Economics

 

"The rule of thumb is that it takes three to four weeks between an oil price movement and a corresponding change in prices at the pump."

"That means drivers should notice it toward the end of February."

Pavel Molchanov, Raymond James, Houston 

Wisconsin Refinery

 

In U.S. regions more reliant on Canadian oil supply, retail prices could begin to spike sooner. Maine, for example, is where the majority of fuel retailers buy their product on spot markets priced at the New York Harbour. Once tariffs raise pricing on that critical pricing hub, gas stations would swiftly pass the cost on to consumers. 

And then, there is this to consider: crude oil is an import lacking an immediate alternative since many U.S. refineries are specifically configured to refine the heavier oil arriving from Alberta. The United States buys Alberta oil at a discount; it represents some of the cheapest oil available anywhere. These refineries  would be incapable of switching immediately to processing domestic oil if crude oil from Canada was  hit with a 25 percent premium.

 

Fuel prices may rise suddenly by some 15 cents a gallon in response to President Trump's threat to carry through with a 10 percent tariff on Canadian oil and gas; basic commodities he has boasted that America doesn't need from Canada. His threat to hit both Canada and Mexico with punitive taxes in the form of tariffs will also have a profound, albeit not ruinous effect on American consumers.

 

About four million barrels a day of Canadian crude is imported into American refining and fuel markets. A last-minute delay of the threatened tariffs meant to be imposed by February 1st has seen the imminent imposition put off for 30 days. Whether there will be another extension, or whether the axe will fall in thirty days' time is anyone's guess. 

On the U.S. West coast where fuel is already the most expensive market in the U.S., prices could rise 20 cents per gallon. Western Pennsylvania, Montana and Washington state are reliant on Canadian crude oil supplies, while Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire rely on Canadian gasoline and diesel imports. New Brunswick-based Irving Oil Ltd. informed customers in New Hampshire that propane prices will be raised in reflection of Trump's tariffs.

 

Diesel was $3.70 a gallon last weekend, while gasoline prices average d $3.10 a gallon at U.S. pumps, according to data derived from the American Automobile Association. Canada/Mexico tariffs once imposed could drop U.S. GDP by 0.3 percent and conceivably could have the effect of 286,000 job losses, raising per-household costs by roughly US$670 annually.

 

Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery

 

"Unfortunately for Midwest refineries, heavy oil cannot easily be substituted with the light oil that makes up most of U.S. shale oil production. StanChart has pointed out that such a switch would create a significant loss of optimization in the highly expensive cracking units that require feed from vacuum distillation of the heavy residual obtained by simple distillation."

"Canada has supplied 99.89% of all heavy imports into Midwest refineries over the past decade; the low substitutability of this flow implies that a tariff would largely feed through to local retail prices. Refiners will also have to cut runs due to the loss of refinery optimization."