Near-Future Threats
There it sits, the evidence proving the theory, that Iran's Islamist state has gone far beyond nuclear weapons aspirations directly into the commission of ballistic missile development. With nuclear-tipped warheads, needless to add. It is their right, as an Islamic society, to claim for themselves what other, non-Islamic, decidedly secular, Western, and therefore Iran-threatening societies have achieved.Oh, right, there is also Islamic Pakistan. And yes, Hindu India. Sure, there's communist China. And little old isolated and misunderstood, harmless North Korea. What a tinderbox this world has become. With the sole exception of North Korea, the other nuclear powers, inclusive of France, Britain, the United States, Russia (Israel) do not present as a potential threat to the world at large.
Pakistan let the atom out of the bag, generously glad-handing it on to North Korea and Iran. The latter two dabbling and dibbling in atoms and fissionable materials, determined to send the world scuttling in fear, hoping for safety from their mad predations, come the reality of possession. North Korea's kindly obligations to Iran and Syria are kindling further fears.
We've become a nuclear-mad world, on our way to being an irreversibly nuclear-threatened world. As the technology progresses as it surely will, and as guards and protections fall prey to events beyond control, who will save us from the death cult of Islamist jihadists who welcome and celebrate death and the end of all living things?
But not to worry, the world is on guard. The editor of Jane's Proliferation explains fulsomely that informed analysis of the newly-identified Iranian site has already been used to launch a ballistic missile, but that the world has a five-year breathing spell. The Israelis beg to differ; their intelligence offers a shorter worrying-span.
Fact is, that 6,000-kilometre ballistic missile is not only on the drawing board, but on a rigid production schedule. Mind, there are a few loose ends to be tied up on the way to success, not so readily accomplished, but there's the will, and that's the way. We know it's a certainty, since IAEA inspectors have faced off with Iran over evidence of design studies for the mounting of nuclear warheads on long-range missiles.
No child's play this, although Iran vehemently denies any such realities. Surprise, surprise.
For Jane's Intelligence Review, in studying satellite photographs taken by the Digital Globe QuickBird satellite proves that the rocket set off by Iran on February 4 was not a civilian project, as claimed, but consistent with Iran's development program of long-range missiles. The better to frighten you with, dear world.
Geoffrey Forden, research associate at MIT, has identified the building housing Iran's long-range missile assembly facility, factored along the lines of North Korea's Taepondong facility. Adding that it's known Iran is benefiting from North Korea's missile program, emulating its designs. Hardly, at this point, an educated guess.
Back up to the NATO meeting at which President Bush attempted once again to persuade Vladimir Putin to understand that the missile-shield defense to be deployed in the Czech Republic and Poland is meant to protect against just that, incoming missiles from Iran. And the subsequent NATO all-member approval of the U.S. position, and the fog begin to clear. "There is a threat ... and allied security must be indivisible in the face of it."
No threat from us, coos Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; we simply have an interest in establishing a presence in outer space. Prove otherwise. The intent is to launch satellites into a monitoring orbit, looking out for natural disasters, and to improve telecommunications in the interests of the country's security. They'll target Israel first, ask questions later. June, he says, is the launch date of their Omid satellite.
Perfect satellite-launching techniques, and you've used the technology and capability required for launching long-range ballistic missiles. That's the trouble with this world, we've all become neurotically possessive, downright paranoid. Why on earth, would we ever suspect a gentle, peace-loving country like Iran of aspiring to nuclear warheads? Other than the repeated threats to annihilate a UN-member country, perhaps.
Were those 2004 Iranian laptop plans pointing to the development of same authentic or a clever forgery? To benefit exactly whom? Those nuclear-incriminating plans appear convincing enough to the Americans, the British, the Germans, the French. Russia, not so much. IAEA inspectors just about convinced.
The international experts conjecture. The rest of us sit and wait. We are such worry-warts, are we not? Building Muhammads out of mountains.
Labels: Middle East, Technology, Troublespots, World Crises
posted by Pieface @ Friday, April 11, 2008
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