Progress in Afghanistan
The long-awaited White House review of the situation in Afghanistan claims that the Obama-initiated 30,000 troop surge made all the difference, battering the Taliban and shoving them back from whence they came. Well, they came from Afghanistan, from various Taliban-held provinces in the country, since that's where they live traditionally, and it is where they still hold fast.One truth that did finally emerge, however, was the unvarnished albeit reluctant admission that "progress has not come fast enough", thanks to the lack of co-operation from the Government of Pakistan. That, the lack of Pakistani co-operation in the battle against the Taliban has been a constant throughout the years; nothing whatever has changed there. Before President Asif Ali Zardai, it was General Musharaff.
The U.S. chose in its great wisdom to believe all the lies that General Musharaff, Pakistan's ISI and its National Army fed to the Americans, assuring them that they were on side. When, clearly enough,and well enough known to U.S. intelligence, they were not. They were arming, training, securing and guiding the Afghan Taliban to ensure a continued destabilized Afghanistan, which better served their purpose.
That aside, the claim that "al-Qaeda's senior leadership in Pakistan is weaker and under more sustained pressure than at any other point since it fled Afghanistan in 2001", is of questionable value. For the fact is the tribal NorthWest Provinces represent a secure sanctuary for both the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban, along with al-Qaeda. And from its safe aeyrie there al-Qaeda's affiliates, branches and associates take direction and comfort.
Somehow the upbeat assessment of the White House doesn't quite match that of aid groups working within Afghanistan. The International Committee of the Red Cross anticipates increased battles in the year to come: "The proliferation of armed groups threatens the ability of humanitarian organizations to access those in need. Access for the ICRC has over the last 30 years never been as poor."
The U.S. State Department, oddly enough, appears to have reached a radically opposite conclusion to that of the White House, daring to state not too obliquely that they doubt the "war can be won". That in and of itself is another kind of declarative revelation; that war represents an impediment to peace.
Of course the kind of peace that will reign in Afghanistan once Western troops finally pull out is anyone's guess. Afghanistan is as it has always been: fundamentalist Islamist, harsh, aggressive, corrupt. In lock-step with its neighbour Pakistan, now battling its own Taliban, and which country which simply cannot wrench itself away from its irredentist hatred of India.
That's quite the neighbourhood, in fact is it not, with Iran on one side, the "Stans" on the other, and China not too far away, leaving India the sole democratic symbol of a state dedicated to hope for the future.
Labels: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Political Realities
posted by Pieface @ Sunday, December 19, 2010
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