US set for final campaigning day
BBC News online - 5 November 2012
Analysts say the election will come down to a handful of swing states
US
presidential rivals Barack Obama and Mitt Romney face a final sprint
across swing states for undecided voters, on their last day of
campaigning.
Mr Obama is scheduled to appear in Madison, Wisconsin, accompanied by Bruce Springsteen, before going on to Iowa and Ohio.
Analysts say the election will come down to a handful of swing states.
Mr Obama and Mr Romney are running almost neck-and-neck in national polls, in a campaign that has cost more than $2bn (£1.2bn).
But surveys of the nine-or-so battleground states that will determine the election show Mr Obama narrowly ahead.
The campaign has been most intense in Ohio - no Republican has ever made it to the White House without winning that state.
Our experts' analysis
- Mark Mardell, BBC North America editor - The two men do see two visions - two different mirages of a future America, shimmering hazily on the horizon. But the trouble is there really are two Americas existing now. And the gulf between them is getting wider... Read more from Mark
- Jonny Dymond, BBC Washington correspondent - If - and it seems an enormous if at this late stage - the Republicans could take Pennsylvania, it would turn the electoral arithmetic on its head, more than making up for the loss of Ohio... Read more from Jonny
Mr Romney would become the first Mormon president of the US if he wins on Tuesday.
The candidates spent Sunday addressing crowds across the
country, with Mr Romney speaking in Pennsylvania, a state his aides
insist he can now win on Tuesday.Mr Obama held rallies in New Hampshire and Florida and carried on to Ohio and Colorado in the evening.
Thirty million Americans have already cast their ballot through early voting across 34 states. In the 2008 presidential election, 130 million people voted.
In Florida, Democrats have filed a legal case demanding an extension of time available for early voting, citing unprecedented demand.
In Ohio, Republican election officials will go to court on Monday to defend an 11th-hour directive to local election officials.
Last month, a federal appeals court reinstated early voting on the last three days before Tuesday's election.
The ruling overturned a state law saying early voting should end on the Friday before the election, making an exception only for voters living overseas and for military personnel, who tend to favour Republican candidates.
Two pundits prepared to stick their neck out and predict results in the swing states both foresee a win for Barack Obama. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball gives Obama 290 electoral college votes - 20 more than the 270 required to win - while Nate Silver at the New York Time's FiveThirtyEight blog envisages Obama taking 307 votes.
There are conservative pundits who predict quite the opposite. One, Dick Morris, a former Democrat, foresees Mitt Romney picking up 325 electoral college votes. George Will of the Washington Post, puts Romney on 321. Meanwhile, from the liberal camp, Josh Marshall's Talking Points Memo puts Barack Obama on 303.
A handful of websites that choose not to predict a result in "toss-up" states see a small advantage for Obama. The New York Times and the Washington Post both think Obama is able to rely on at least 243 electoral college votes, compared with 206 for Mitt Romney. Charlie Cook gives Obama 237 to Romney's 191, while Real Clear Politics leaves a full 146 electoral college votes in the toss-up category, with Obama on 201, and Romney on 191.
Critics say this potentially favours the Obama camp.
Both candidates visited the Buckeye State on Sunday, with Mr Romney telling crowds in Cleveland that Mr Obama has failed in his pledge to be a "post-partisan" president and criticising his record.
"He's been divisive, blaming, attacking, dividing and - by the way - it's not only Republicans that he refused to listen to, he also refused to listen to independent voices."
Later on Sunday, he spoke in Morrisville, Pennsylvania, his first visit there in the final stages of the campaign.
"The people of America understand we're taking back the White House because we're going to win Pennsylvania," Mr Romney told the crowd in Morrisville.
Democrats say the Romney team's last-minute decision to campaign in the state is a sign of desperation, but polls do show a tightening race.
The Democrats have responded by sending former President Bill Clinton to campaign at several events in Pennsylvania for Mr Obama on Monday.
Mr Obama made another appearance in Cincinnati, Ohio, where Stevie Wonder opened a huge evening rally.
He said he would work across party lines to break the political gridlock in Washington, but would not compromise on priorities such as healthcare and college financial aid.
"It's now up to you," Mr Obama said in Concord, the state capital. "That's how a democracy works, right? That ultimately, it's up to you. You have the power. You are shaping the decisions for this country for decades to come. Right now. In the next two days."
Activists have been stepping up efforts across the crucial swing states.
In Wisconsin, student volunteers have been putting in 14-hour days in an effort to deliver the state for Mr Obama, the BBC's Paul Adams reports from Madison.
An opinion poll on Sunday for ABC News and the Washington Post put the two candidates at 48%, with even voters who term themselves independents split evenly on 46%.
Mr Romney remains favoured among whites, seniors and evangelical Christians; Mr Obama among women, non-whites and young adults.
The election is decided by the electoral college. Each state is given a number of votes based on a mix of population and representation in Congress. The candidate who wins 270 electoral college votes becomes president.
A handful of governors, the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are also up for election on Tuesday.
Republicans are expected to keep control of the House, while Democrats were tipped to remain in sway of the Senate.
Labels: Communication, Democracy, Economy, Education, Energy, Environment, Human Relations, Political Realities Middle East, United States
posted by Pieface @ Monday, November 05, 2012
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