generalspeaking

Reassurances and Intentions

"Putin may not get to host the G8, but if he gets to go to Normandy with everybody, it begins to diminish the appearance of isolation."
Steven Pifer, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, senior fellow, Brookings Institution

"He's going to hear a very strong message from Polish officials that the mission has not been accomplished. In fact, the work has only begun."
"I think there is no political appetite for further sanctions [by European allies]."
Heather Conley, Europe scholar, Center for Strategic and International Studies

"We very much admired that the people of Ukraine have turned out in huge numbers to elect President-Elect Poroshenko. We've admired his commitment to pursue dialogue and to aim to reduce tensions and put Ukraine on a positive path."
Ben Rhodes deputy national security adviser, White House

While many American corporate interests are bypassing the sanctions strategy emphasized as being so hugely successful by their president, he will himself be pressing European leaders to maintain pressure on Russia over its mendacious undercover operations in sowing the seeds of civil war in Ukraine. Russia's economy may be weakened, but that hasn't stopped it from investing billions in its Black Sea fleet upgrades.

Moscow thanks the French for providing it with an amphibious assault ship, with another bound for the Russian Far East. Russia may now be planning having a permanent home for its nuclear bombers in Crimea for the first time. With Ukraine's political system in crisis, Vladimir Putin holds a veto over Ukraine joining NATO, and he's working overtime to stall Ukraine from closer ties with the European Union.

"Russia's recent actions recall the days when Soviet tanks rolled into Eastern Europe. But this isn't the Cold War. Our ability to shape world opinion helped isolate Russia right away", claimed President Barack Obama during his Wednesday West Point military academy address. While Canada, the U.S., Denmark, the Baltic states and Poland envision more robust economic sanctions to Putin's Ukraine agenda, Britain, Germany, France and the rest of southern Europe are less than enthusiastic.

But has the West isolated Moscow? Although it is no longer the G8, the Group of Seven major industrial countries, spurning the meeting Russia was scheduled to host this week, are meeting in France on Friday to mark the 70th anniversary of the D-Day invasion of Normandy. And present will be President Putin. One-on-one talks with France are scheduled between Presidents Putin and Hollande.

But, no, not between Presidents Putin and Obama; nothing formal, in any event, though they will have some level of contact. Simply because Mr. Putin will be present at the event does not constitute a return to business as usual. Dear me, no. Not the impression that Poland gets from where it sits, nor Ukraine for that matter. 

Ukrainian President-elect Petro Poroshenko will hold his first bilateral meeting with Obama in Warsaw at the 25th anniversary of Poland's first post-Soviet free elections.

At Brussels, leaders of the G7 nations are set to meet to discuss what can be done to wean Europe off Russian energy. Well, the EU is thinking Norway, and thinking of better, more efficient and less use of energy resources.

But with Europe's close economic ties with Russia, hmm, there's the challenge in spades. Which led Ms. Conley to state her doubts.

Labels: Conflict, Energy, European Union, NATO, Russia, Sanctions, Ukraine, United States

posted by Pieface @ Tuesday, June 03, 2014