generalspeaking

Saturday, February 14, 2015

Doomed Ukraine : Mendaciously Triumphant Putin

"We now have a glimmer of hope, we have agreed on a comprehensive implementation of Minsk. But ... there are still major hurdles that lie ahead."
"I have no illusions. We have no illusions. Much work [remained]."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel

"It was not the best night in my life, but [in] the morning I think, it is good because we have managed to agree on the main things despite all the difficulties of the negotiations."
Russian President Vladimir Putin

"We demanded immediate ceasefire without any precondition. Unfortunately they demanded we have almost 70 hours before ceasefire was launched. Immediately after the deal was signed, the Russian-backed terrorists started the offensive operation."
"That is why it is vitally important for us, for all of us to keep the pressure to keep the promises about the ceasefire -- about the withdrawal of the heavy weapons, about the immediate release of all the hostages, about the withdrawal of all the foreign troops and mercenaries, and the closing of the border."
Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko

Mr. Poroshenko knows Mr. Putin very well indeed. And knowing him as well as he does, he has little hope that the second agreement, modelled on the Minsk agreement before it, will turn the tide of violent evisceration of his country to benefit Moscow's aspiration of regional territorial theft. He knows the mettle of the man with whom he is dealing. He knew him personally before he became Ukraine's president, and he knows him even better now that they are adversaries, not of Mr. Poroshenko's choosing, but reflective of Mr. Putin's ambitions.

Sixteen hours of intense negotiations in Minsk resulted in an agreement, although concessions were one-sided by necessity of threat of worse occurring. Ukraine, backed into a corner by the very Europe that should have in all moral conscience, backed its inalienable right to its sovereign territory. Ukraine, backed into another corner by the voracious appetite of Moscow prepared to sate its ravenous need to once again occupy its near neighbours; to 'protect' the Russian speakers in their midst.

Hostilities, according to the 'agreement' to cease on Sunday morning as soon as the pendulum swings from ll:59 pm to 12:01 am. Until then, all bets are off, and the rebels have mounted and re-mounted their advance with a vengeance. Victory for the forbearing patience of France and Germany, however, in trying to tame the circus bear, to spare the sacrificial goat for another day. All Ukraine has to commit to is indemnifying the rebels.

Their violent predations to be forgiven, and their aspirations to be confirmed, affirmed and legalized with legal autonomy; power to be devolved from Kyiv to the eastern regions of the Donbass. Messrs Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky, heads of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics prevailed upon by their mentor to sign the road map to 'peace'. Concessions by embattled Ukraine, victory for the secessionists and their smiling champion; the winning team.

Both rebel leaders had renounced the original Minsk agreement for full independence from Ukraine. Are they now to be satisfied with mere autonomy? Stubborn Ukraine, refusing to treat the rebel leaders as genuine negotiators. Debaltseve, the railway junction where several thousand Ukrainian troops are valiantly attempting to break out of a separatist encirclement evidently was a matter of some contention; some measure of resistance from Ukraine is, after all, inevitable.

The following two days before the ceasefire was to take effect would follow a well-recognized and prescribed-by-the-Kremlin pattern: rush to overwhelm government troops to gain as much territory as possible from which to advance yet again in the next round of talks for yet another agreement some months down the road through 2015. As for the one vital commitment that Moscow must adhere to; the withdrawal of "foreign armed groups and military equipment", and the disarming of "illegal armed groups"; total innocence.

Might there conceivably be anything more that Vladimir Putin wants to risk European patience with in wringing from Ukraine? Much of the east is now his, so to speak. And that includes Ukraine's industrial heartland and most of its coal reserves. Beggaring the country which has also had to commit to restoring payments to public servants as well as retirement benefits and welfare to the areas now cut off from Kyiv administration. Paying the costs for the rebels' advances while its natural resources have been looted.

Meanwhile, in the interval between the agreement's signing and implementation, violence has escalated, and Ukrainian officials state that even more Russian tanks have crossed the border during the talks. Some 50 tanks, 40 missile systems and 40 armoured vehicles crossed during the night from Russia via Izvaryne border crossing into the Luhansk region. While correspondents in the east saw heavy weaponry heading toward Debaltseve.

Separatist forces in preparation for a last-minute sprint to destroy the Ukrainian garrison hold-out against their onslaught before the ceasefire takes effect. Surely, Mr. Putin's feelings were quite injured when Mr. Poroshenko said he just didn't trust his antagonist at his word...?