generalspeaking

In Charge of an Amorphous Goal

"On screen we can see that we are so strong, we are so important, we are so great."
"It is very cheap, [Russia's involvement in Syria] bloodless, there are no Russian victims and it is seen positively by Russian society."
Nikolai Petrov, political science professor, Moscow School for Higher Economics

"[The partial truce agreement, leading to] a cessation of hostilities [announced on television posed Russia as a vital interlocutor in Syria, equal to the United States.] Russia will conduct the necessary work with Damascus and the legitimate Syrian leadership."
"[Syria could serve as an example of] responsible actions."
Russian President Vladimir Putin

As the purveyor of 'responsible actions', Mr. Putin is no doubt equally amused and satisfied that he has been able to lead his American counterpart by the nose-ring of 'doing the right thing'. Diplomatic agreement is always preferable, says Mr. Putin, to conflict when it is the affairs of other countries being discussed, and not other countries interfering in Russia's private affairs. There are, quite obviously, times when conflict is required, because diplomacy is useless, and this is when Russia's interests are involved.

As they have been, in Ukraine, in Georgia, for example; no one's business but Russia's. That the international community clamours its unsought opinion on these matters is of little matter, for their opinion and their visceral reactions condemning Russia's thoughtful interventions in matters pertaining to its influence in its own near-abroad should be of no concern to European and American busy-bodies interfering where they have no right to.


With the annexation of Crimea, Russia simply retook possession of what is rightfully hers. And although the matter is not yet concluded, it will be re-addressed at the appropriate future time. Russia, in the meanwhile, is not to be held responsible for the ethnic Russian Ukrainian rebels who continue to agitate for their regions in eastern Ukraine to join Crimea. And Moscow looks on complacently as renewed fighting continues its destabilizing effect on the Kiev government.


Mr. Putin's wiley manipulations reflect a method to his madness, from Ukraine to Syria. The European Union's sanctions as penalty for Crimea have more than earned them the agony they are suffering with the forced intake of hundreds of thousands additional refugees streaming into Europe from Turkey, thanks to Russia's aerial bombing in support of Syria's Bashar al-Assad. That's the serendipitous benefit of intervention. On the other  hand, there is the trifling matter of Russia's economic wobbles and the cost of waging war.

Russia now has about as many hostile friends as Turkey has managed to alienate in its turn. Moscow is expending $3-million daily on its Syria operation, an expense toward a definable end, except it isn't quite known where the end will be and when it will be declared the end. Defending Damascus has come at the cost of offending Turkey. And then there is also the ISIL quagmire, and whether Mr. Putin intends to extend his aggressive moves against the Western-backed Syrian rebels to Daesh, to fully restore Assad's national boundaries.

An additional benefit of Russia's intervention in Syria was as a diversion for Mr. Putin's admiring home audience, not yet chafing too strenuously against lowered economic expectations and a much tighter economy, with the need among the population to become more resilient and self-reliant now that imports have been straitened. Seeing their president resolutely and firmly leading the U.S. and NATO to his design for a Russian-exempt ceasefire targeting Syrian rebels no doubt plays well at home.

His adept exploitation of European divisive agonies which Russia's air campaign has helped goad into additional stress on the union must have given Moscow further satisfaction as presenting of an opportunity to convince Europe it is time to end sanctions.

Labels: Conflict, European Union, NATO, Rebels, Russia, Syria, Ukraine, United States

posted by Pieface @ Sunday, March 06, 2016