Taiwan's Dilemma
China regularly breaches Taiwanese airspace, but rarely with such a large number of aircraft |
"In fact, the general public seems to believe that Beijing would not take that one extra step to war.""Although there is undoubtedly a psychological warfare component to this activity, it nevertheless increases the risks of miscommunication and accidents, which could then quickly spiral out of control.""The increasingly belligerent exercises added to similarly hostile rhetoric emanating from Beijing, also signal that the Chinese leadership is bent on escalation.""We can't leave the [Chinese Communist Party] guessing, even less encourage it to conclude that it could get away with an assault against Taiwan.""One moment of inattention, and the outcome could be catastrophic for Taiwan."J.Michael Cole, Taipei-based, senior fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute"Canada urges all parties to refrain from actions that undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and to avoid moves that alter the status quo.""Canada continues to support constructive efforts that will contribute to peace, stability and peaceful dialogue across the Taiwan Strait.""We are following the situation in the region very closely."Department of Foreign Affairs, Canada"We will stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security and values in the Indo-Pacific region -- and that includes deepening our ties with democratic Taiwan."U.S. State Department"What we’ve seen, and what is of real concern to us, is increasingly aggressive actions by the government in Beijing directed at Taiwan, raising tensions in the Straits.""All I can tell you is we have a serious commitment to Taiwan being able to defend itself. We have a serious commitment to peace and security in the western Pacific.""We stand behind those commitments. And in that context, it would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change that status quo by force."U.S.Secretary of State Antony Blinken
China
has been flexing its military muscle in an obvious bid to intimidate
Taiwan of late. Preparatory, it is increasingly seen, to moving into
position to test Taiwan's defensive forces against a physical incursion
by the Chinese military determined to follow Beijing's dictate that
reunification must proceed. China's move against Hong Kong, effectively
rescinding the agreement it signed with Great Britain at the transfer of
the British protectorate back to mainland Chinese authority under a
'one country, two systems' agreement for Hong Kong's semi-autonomous
democracy to be safeguarded for a 50 year span despite international
condemnation has emboldened the People's Republic to complete its
restoration of Chinese rule of its divided geography.
The
recent dispatch of 15 Chinese planes entering Taiwanese airspace once
again, the entry of a Chinese aircraft carrier carrying out 'routine
exercises' close to the sovereign island, delivered a clear message of
China's intent. Taiwanese foreign minister Joseph Wu, hoping to
galvanize support from among Taiwan's allies and supporters broadcast a
diplomatic 'mayday' message to fellow democracies that his country is
prepared to defend itself "to the very last day", should the worst-case scenario develop.
It
may or may not give comfort to the Taiwanese leadership to have the
Biden administration reiterate its commitment to Taiwan is "rock solid",
but then it only has to look at the same administration's assurances to
Israel that the traditional U.S.-Israel stance of allowing "no light"
to separate their firm commitment to Israel's security and very
existence, to cast doubt on the sincerity of the declaration other than
for diplomatic nicety conformation. The U.S. has never signed a binding
security guarantee with Taiwan as it has with Japan.
As
for Canada, whose Prime Minister never tires of pledging himself to
peace, security and justice, there is a pro forma vapid response
somewhat lacking in sincerity. Canada clearly treads carefully around
Beijing these days. Beyond having crafted a declaration on arbitrary
detention signed by 58 countries, deploring Beijing's penchant for
putting pressure on countries that displease it mightily by 'unwarranted
and illegal' criticism of the People's Republic for among, other
issues, its penchant for diplomacy-by-abduction-coersion.
A
confrontational attitude expressed by Canada against China by the
current government of Justin Trudeau in support of Taiwan's democratic
independence as a state separate and apart from that of China is simply
not in the books. "One
wishes that Ottawa would have the clearness of mind to acknowledge that
only one side threatens war, and only one side engages in highly
dangerous brinkmanship, and that it is that regime, not both of them,
which needs to be singled out and called upon to de-escalate", commented Michael Cole of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
Taipei
is sufficiently concerned over Beijing's strategy and a looming
confrontation in gear with its unsubtle threats, to engage itself in the
conduct of computerized war games, simulating a Chinese invasion.
Hospitals in Taiwan are planning for the potential of mass casualty
drills. In close to a quarter of a century, regional tensions have never
been quite so high, with China-watchers suggesting risk-calculation has
been stepped up in Beijing with the neutralizing of Hong Kong.
The
"peaceful" process of reunification that Xi Jinping once spoke of
belies the actions it has been taking to exchange muscle for soft words
of blandishment. The Pentagon now considers it a high probability that
Beijing will resort to force before decade's end. Admiral John Aquilino,
commander of the U.S.Pacific Fleet, at this nomination hearing last
month stated his opinion that "this problem is much closer to us than most think."
Confidence
in the U.S. among its Asian allies would be under great scrutiny and
pressure, were the U.S. to do nothing should China invade. Taiwan's
geographic position also provides shelter to Japan from any military
action by China. The U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity" whereby it
appears vague whether it might respond militarily in aid of Taiwan in
the event of an attack now comes under scrutiny. Analysts in the U.S.
feel that China has the necessary firepower it would take to occupy the
island of 24 million people.
With
a defence budget 25 times greater than that of Taiwan, with six times
as many warships and six times the number of planes, the potential to
swiftly overtake the island bringing brute force to bear would present
no difficulties for China, without outside interference. China must
consider follow-up implications however, were the U.S. to enter the fray
in support of Taiwan where it would lead allies in blocking sea lanesm
cutting Chinese imports and exports off\, and expelling China from the
global trading system.
As
for the Taiwanese civilian population, it appears they are less
concerned of a Chinese move against the island than their leaders are.
Xi, they point out, sent personal condolences to the families of the 48
victims of last week's train derailment, which they have taken as a sign
hostilities are not pending, rhetoric aside and not Xi ingratiating
himself with a population he plans soon to command. The risks of
accidental escalation are simmering, but many in Taiwan calculate the
timing for Xi is awkward, with much taking his attention for the present
away from reunification.
There
is the approaching 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party in
July, the Winter Olympics next February in Beijing, and the 20th party
congress, where President Xi will seek approval for a third term. And
the fact that U.S. allies most likely to be affected by conflict in the
Taiwan Strait, are urging calm. Where Japanese prime minister Yoshihide
Suga is promoting a "free and open Indo-Pacific" on rules-based order, to counterweight China's antagonism.
And,
as Mr. Cole of the Macdonald Laurier Institute points out, the need for
the international community to unequivocally point out to Beijing the
consequences of any untoward action involving a reluctant, battle-ready
Taiwan militarily-forced to rejoin mainland China, surrendering its
independence involuntarily, with attendant loss of life, to bring
Beijing to a rational weighing of the price to pay for rash action.
Labels: Intimidation, People's Republic of China, Reunification, Taiwan
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