"[In all likelihood, China viewed Russia's invasion of Ukraine failing to gain its objective swiftly as] you don't achieve quick decisive victories with underwhelming force."

"Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it."

"[The risks] become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get." 

"I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you’ve got to amass overwhelming force if you’re going to contemplate that in the future."

"[China also has likely learned that it has to] control the information space [and] do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions."

William Burns, director, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency

President Tsai Ing-wen visits army reservists on exercises. The undertrained force has to be reformed to provide resilience against an attack by China  Ann Wang/Reuters

"[It would] severely undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, gravely impact the foundation of China-U.S. relations and send a seriously wrong signal to Taiwan independence forces [should the United States continue to interfere in China's internal politics]."

Zhao Lijiant, spokesperson, Chinese Foreign Ministry

 

"[Beijing still prefers] peaceful reunification."

"[The US supports] independence [forces in Taiwan, where president Tsai Ing-wen has asserted the island’s separate identity]."

"No conflict and no war is the biggest consensus between China and the United States. [But the United States is] hollowing out and blurring [its stated policy of recognizing only Beijing]."

"Only by adhering strictly to the one-China policy, only by joining hands to constrain and oppose Taiwan independence, can we have a peaceful reunification."

Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the United States

Taiwanese soldiers hold military drills in Taipei Credit: Ann Wang/Reuters

 China has been aggressively harassing Taipei, entering its air space as a warning that it is growing impatient with the island state's adamant refusal to rejoin the mainland. Beijing's ongoing efforts to isolate Taiwan on the world stage, refusing it recognition as a sovereign state, in the United Nations and in international diplomatic relations is just the initial step in its campaign to return Taiwan to China's tender care. Taiwan is alert to the imminence of an invasion.

The tension between mainland China and its breakaway republic is steadily increasing, thanks to China's more belligerent overtures. Now that Beijing has consolidated its premature hold over Hong Kong, Taiwan is next on its agenda. Xi Jinping makes no secret about his determination to bring Taiwan back into the fold, from its status as a defiant, breakaway republic. He did not hesitate to revoke Hong Kong's semi-autonomous status, despite a signed agreement that status would be in place for a fifty year period.

And nor will he allow world opinion and the censure along with an increased threat not only of economic sanctions imposed by the United States should Beijing move precipitously to regain what it feels it has unjustly lost, but the prospect of a wider conflict should the United States engage in supporting Taiwan with U.S. military intervention, as U.S. President Joe Biden recently asserted.

President Joe Biden, during a recent trip to Japan, told a reporter he was willing to use force to defend Taiwan  Eugene Hoshiko/Pool/EPA-EFE

 

 For Beijing and its president, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the goal somewhat similar in nature to Beijing's own, represents a test case whose prosecution and outcome presents as a lesson in what not to do for a successful and timely outcome in its plans for Taiwan. Moscow's 'strategic failure' is a lesson gained for Beijing, a primary observer directly related to its own, similar plans.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi - about as senior an American diplomatic presence as any next to the president himself -- plans to visit Taiwan in the coming month, despite that the U.S. military has cautioned her against such plans. Her original plan to visit Taipei in April was postponed when she tested positive for COVID-19. With news of her renewed intention to visit the region, stopping at Japan and Vietnam as well as Taiwan, Beijing has warned of 'repercussions'.

"We are indeed in the midst of very large-scale and thorough discussions both among ourselves and with the Americans right now about the things we need to do." 

"We are exploring a range of radically different ideas for making our country resilient, to build the features we need in wartime."

"Our goal is to be ready between 2025 and 2027 [for China's invasion and attempted occupation of Taiwan to secure 'reunification']."

Senior (unnamed) Taiwanese official

Taipei wants to retain military capabilities, such as its F-5 fighter jets, to counter Chinese incursions  Ritchie B Tongo/EPA-EFE

"It is true that the U.S.-China relationship is in a precarious and possibly dangerous place [given ongoing friction in bilateral ties and uncertainty related to China's domestic politics]."

\"I think that the United States should articulate a clear and consistent policy toward Taiwan and cross-strait issues."

"We have had a significant amount of confusion in U.S. policy that has led China to question what our intentions are."

Bonnie Glaser, director, Asia Programme, German Marshall Fund

The Chinese Communist Party DoubleSpeak

"By 2025, China will bring the cost [of war] and attrition to its lowest."

"It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration."

"For me as a military man, the urgency is right in front of me."

"[The situation with China] is the most severe in the 40 years since I've enlisted. [China would have] comprehensive [capabilities to invade Taiwan by 2025]."

Taiwan Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng

"I've spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree ... we'll abide by the Taiwan agreement."

"We made it clear that I don't think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement."

U.S. President Joe Biden

Chinese President Xi Jinping  Andy Wong/AP

"Reunification of the nation must be realized, and will definitely be realized."

"Reunification through a peaceful manner is the most inline with the overall interests of the Chinese nation, including Taiwan compatriots."

"Aggression and hegemony are not in the blood of the Chinese people. Our people hope to successfully realize national development, but they also hope to see all peoples of the world leading happy and peaceful lives."

"China will remain a champion of world peace, a contributor to global development, and a defender of the international order, and we will do our very best to make even greater contributions to humanity."

"Through courage and skill, we will overcome all major risks and challenges that may impede our path to national rejuvenation and resolutely safeguard our national sovereignty, security and development interests."

Chinese President Xi Jinping

Recent polls show many Taiwanese support the government's approach in "safeguarding national sovereignty"   AFP/Getty Images

 

Taiwan values its independence as a sovereign nation. Since its historic split with the mainland in 1949, its political path diverged wildly from that of China. Taiwan is a vibrant democracy with a multi-party system and fair and open elections. It wants no part of China's one-party Communist China system; a severe autocracy focused on population control and a towering ambition to lead a new world order. 

 

Taiwan knows very well what is in store for it, in plain sight beyond the threats, when Beijing shut down democracy in Hong Kong and absorbed the island state, breaking a contract designed around "one country, two systems".

Taiwan will not forego its system to be absorbed with China. And when President Xi spoke of the ideal transition of peaceful absorption what he really meant was that a steadfastly recalcitrant Taiwanese administration would do well to set aside its unwillingness to reunify and submit to China's all-encompassing ambition to recapture the breakaway island state and return it as a province of China.

For all of President Xi's faux optimism of a biddable Taiwan and the soft lullaby of a peaceful transition, he has issued statement after statement couched in semi-diplomatic language not quite concealing implicit threats. And beyond the implicit subtlety of language there is the indisputable violence of a different kind of threat with the deployment of Chinese war planes buzzing Taiwanese air space.

 

Where over the course of less than a week the People's Liberation Army dispatched fighter jets, bombers and airborne early warning aircraft no fewer than 149 times toward Taiwan latterly. One of the air manoeuvres involved 52 jets. Intimation of the first order. A warning that could not possibly be misinterpreted. 

 

The gamble that an unrelenting ferocious display of power hinting at the destruction that could be unleashed by an angry Beijing at Taiwan's stubborn rejection of reunification proposals would bring an abject Taiwan to its knees was destined to fail.

But the offer of a peaceful transition is there, cloaked in the grim threat of military invasion. President Xi's plan is laid out neatly enough. Reunification is the melding destiny of the two; it can be achieved without bloodshed if one of the party relinquishes its foolish separation of what is manifestly meant to be a unified whole. 

 

The alternative to an ongoing stalemate which has gone on too long, would be lives lost unnecessarily and the goal achieved regardless.

China's influence on the world stage transcends that of Taiwan by a wide margin; one the master bully, the other the self-respecting island state determined to go its own way; as at variance as a cultural, social, political entity from its former status as a geographically captured satellite of an Asian giant as it might be possible to imagine. 

 

Taiwan's reputation and dignity in its status as a breakaway province lacks the distinction of recognition by the international community thanks to China's manipulative thrust at the UN. Nations that recognize Taiwan's sovereign independence risk backlash from powerful China whose no-holds-barred retaliation of presumed insults have become legendary.

 

But Taiwan continues to assert its independence with its own display of military equipment in response to that of China's. Fighter jets scheduled to put on a National Day display of its own military prowess and readiness to respond to China's provocations. Under Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen Taiwan doesn't flinch. There will be no 'peaceful' reunification.

A man walks on an overpass in Taipei, Taiwan, decorated with Taiwanese flags earlier this week ahead of the country's National Day, which is celebrated on Sunday. (Ann Wang/Reuters)

China regularly breaches Taiwanese airspace, but rarely with such a large number of aircraft

"In fact, the general public seems to believe that Beijing would not take that one extra step to war."

"Although there is undoubtedly a psychological warfare component to this activity, it nevertheless increases the risks of miscommunication and accidents, which could then quickly spiral out of control."

"The increasingly belligerent exercises added to similarly hostile rhetoric emanating from Beijing, also signal that the Chinese leadership is bent on escalation."

"We can't leave the [Chinese Communist Party] guessing, even less encourage it to conclude that it could get away with an assault against Taiwan."

"One moment of inattention, and the outcome could be catastrophic for Taiwan."

J.Michael Cole, Taipei-based, senior fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute

"Canada urges all parties to refrain from actions that undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and to avoid moves that alter the status quo."

"Canada continues to support constructive efforts that will contribute to peace, stability and peaceful dialogue across the Taiwan Strait."

"We are following the situation in the region very closely."

Department of Foreign Affairs, Canada

"We will stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security and values in the Indo-Pacific region -- and that includes deepening our ties with democratic Taiwan."

U.S. State Department

"What we’ve seen, and what is of real concern to us, is increasingly aggressive actions by the government in Beijing directed at Taiwan, raising tensions in the Straits." 

"All I can tell you is we have a serious commitment to Taiwan being able to defend itself. We have a serious commitment to peace and security in the western Pacific."

"We stand behind those commitments. And in that context, it would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change that status quo by force."

U.S.Secretary of State Antony Blinken

A Taiwanese soldier stands in front of a M60A3 tank during a military drill in Hualien, Taiwan, January 30, 2018. Photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

China has been flexing its military muscle in an obvious bid to intimidate Taiwan of late. Preparatory, it is increasingly seen, to moving into position to test Taiwan's defensive forces against a physical incursion by the Chinese military determined to follow Beijing's dictate that reunification must proceed. China's move against Hong Kong, effectively rescinding the agreement it signed with Great Britain at the transfer of the British protectorate back to mainland Chinese authority under a 'one country, two systems' agreement for Hong Kong's semi-autonomous democracy to be safeguarded for a 50 year span despite international condemnation has emboldened the People's Republic to complete its restoration of Chinese rule of its divided geography.

The recent dispatch of 15 Chinese planes entering Taiwanese airspace once again, the entry of a Chinese aircraft carrier carrying out 'routine exercises' close to the sovereign island, delivered a clear message of China's intent. Taiwanese foreign minister Joseph Wu,  hoping to galvanize support from among Taiwan's allies and supporters broadcast a diplomatic 'mayday' message to fellow democracies  that his country is prepared to defend itself "to the very last day", should the worst-case scenario develop.

It may or may not give comfort to the Taiwanese leadership to have the Biden administration reiterate its commitment to Taiwan is "rock solid", but then it only has to look at the same administration's assurances to Israel that the traditional U.S.-Israel stance of allowing "no light" to separate their firm commitment to Israel's security and very existence, to cast doubt on the sincerity of the declaration other than for diplomatic nicety conformation. The U.S. has never signed a binding security guarantee with Taiwan as it has with Japan.

As for Canada, whose Prime Minister never tires of pledging himself to peace, security and justice, there is a pro forma vapid response somewhat lacking in sincerity. Canada clearly treads carefully around Beijing these days. Beyond having crafted a declaration on arbitrary detention signed by 58 countries, deploring Beijing's penchant for putting pressure on countries that displease it mightily by 'unwarranted and illegal' criticism of the People's Republic for among, other issues, its penchant for diplomacy-by-abduction-coersion.

A confrontational attitude expressed by Canada against China by the current government of Justin Trudeau in support of Taiwan's democratic independence as a state separate and apart from that of China is simply not in the books. "One wishes that Ottawa would have the clearness of mind to acknowledge that only one side threatens war, and only one side engages in highly dangerous brinkmanship, and that it is that regime, not both of them, which needs to be singled out and called upon to de-escalate", commented Michael Cole of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

Taipei is sufficiently concerned over Beijing's strategy and a looming confrontation in gear with its unsubtle threats, to engage itself in the conduct of computerized war games, simulating a Chinese invasion. Hospitals in Taiwan are planning for the potential of mass casualty drills. In close to a quarter of a century, regional tensions have never been quite so high, with China-watchers suggesting risk-calculation has been stepped up in Beijing with the neutralizing of Hong Kong.

The "peaceful" process of reunification that Xi Jinping once spoke of belies the actions it has been taking to exchange muscle for soft words of blandishment. The Pentagon now considers it a high probability that Beijing will resort to force before decade's end. Admiral John Aquilino, commander of the U.S.Pacific Fleet, at this nomination hearing last month stated his opinion that "this problem is much closer to us than most think."

Confidence in the U.S. among its Asian allies would be under great scrutiny and pressure, were the U.S. to do nothing should China invade. Taiwan's geographic position also provides shelter to Japan from any military action by China. The U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity" whereby it appears vague whether it might respond militarily in aid of Taiwan in the event of an attack now comes under scrutiny. Analysts in the U.S. feel that China has the necessary firepower it would take to occupy the island of 24 million people.

With a defence budget 25 times greater than that of Taiwan, with six times as many warships and six times the number of planes, the potential to swiftly overtake the island bringing brute force to bear would present no difficulties for China, without outside interference. China must consider follow-up implications however, were the U.S. to enter the fray in support of Taiwan where it would lead allies in blocking sea lanesm cutting Chinese imports and exports off\, and expelling China from the global trading system.

As for the Taiwanese civilian population, it appears they are less concerned of a Chinese move against the island than their leaders are. Xi, they point out, sent personal condolences to the families of the 48 victims of last week's train derailment, which they have taken as a sign hostilities are not pending, rhetoric aside and not Xi ingratiating himself with a population he plans soon to command. The risks of accidental escalation are simmering, but many in Taiwan calculate the timing for Xi is awkward, with much taking his attention for the present away from reunification.

There is the approaching 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party in July, the Winter Olympics next February in Beijing, and the 20th party congress, where President Xi will seek approval for a third term. And the fact that U.S. allies most likely to be affected by conflict in the Taiwan Strait, are urging calm. Where Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga is promoting a "free and open Indo-Pacific" on rules-based order, to counterweight China's antagonism.

 

Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sails through the Miyako Strait between Japan and Taiwan on its way to the Pacific in a photo released on April 4, 2021. Photo by Handout/Defense Ministry of Japan via Reuters

And, as Mr. Cole of the Macdonald Laurier Institute points out, the need for the international community to unequivocally point out to Beijing the consequences of any untoward action involving a reluctant, battle-ready Taiwan militarily-forced to rejoin mainland China, surrendering its independence involuntarily, with attendant loss of life, to bring Beijing to a rational weighing of the price to pay for rash action.