generalspeaking

Heed The Message, All Ye Who Doubt

It's tough being a tough when what you really want is respect. It's tough understanding that toughness will elicit fear and disgust from those who feel threatened by a tough demeanor. Treat others as you would wish to be treated. They will reciprocate, appreciate and place their trust in you. It's a simple enough nostrum, one that has been recognized since time immemorial, as part of the Golden Mean.

If you withhold respect and trust from others and portray yourself as a bully, you will not be beloved of those who cringe in fear. People respond to courtesy extended by one who wishes to receive courteous treatment in response. Threats elicit resentment and fear, and great dislike.

Certainly no formula for encouraging friendships and influencing people. People become influenced to dread the presence of the bully, make themselves scarce, want nothing to do with them. They look elsewhere for friendship, accommodation and reciprocation. And what happens to the bully? Isolation, loneliness, misery. Other than for the subservient few who depend on them.

But even bullies have feelings, don't we know. And when their feelings have been assaulted their tactics become even more strident and belligerent, promising ever greater interference in the freedoms of others. There are some countries, powerful countries, that are usually capable of exerting their influence upon lesser countries with a modicum of civility, and their sphere of influence may be grudging, but respected.

While others, such as traditionally aggressive Russia, the powerhouse political influence in Eastern Europe, continue to insist on their right to instruct their neighbours how they may or may not comport themselves. Their national interests must be pursued in a manner that complements that of their powerful neighbour. In a sense, that's understandable. In another, it's lamentable, regrettable, a grievous error; illegitimate and unprincipled.

Yet once-secretive and offensively-defensive Russia issues other, mixed messages from the Kremlin. Their assertiveness must be seen in the lens of self-protection in an uncertain and often violent world of disagreeing ideologies and potentially destructive forces led by religious, political and social agendas injurious to the comfort and serenity, let alone the territorial integrity of Russia.

Look at it this way, when Russia seeks to make a presence in the Arctic, in South or Central America, alarm bells ring all over the West. Yet when NATO, the European Union, or the United States make inroads into what has been traditionally Russian hegemonic territory, it is seen as the exercising of international brotherhood, and freedoms for all.

Even when Russia finds itself becoming inexorably encircled by countries once close allies, now rejecting them utterly and choosing to cross over into the camp of the others, those will still view Russian intent with alarm. Oh, perhaps with good reason. It's somewhat disquieting to stand by helplessly while a friendly country is being invaded.

In fact, from all perspectives, no matter who indulges in the invasion and occupation. There are always two sides to every story. And such stories can become complicated indeed. And here we are, with Vladimir Putin instructing that it not Russia that has begun another new arms race, but Europe and the United States. And from his perspective, is he entirely wrong?

"Today", he stated with his own personal brand of conviction, "there are no ideological contradictions, there is no basis for a Cold War. There is no more Soviet threat, but they are trying to resurrect it." The United States, he avers, is behaving as though they represented the power of a "Roman emperor". Moscow, he claims is committed to maintaining workable relations - with the next U.S. president.

"Please, do not instigate an arms race in Europe. It is not needed. What should we do? Sit pretty while they deploy missiles?" No. Yes. Please.

And Poland, Czech Republic, Ukraine - Georgia too - exercise the restraint of self-preservation. Kindly go with care. You plan to emerge into another world of opportunity and the adventure of possibilities hitherto unknown in your geography. Joining a coalition of advanced democracies which struggle with their own problems, internal and external.

Russia is a country in inner turmoil. Uncertain, despite its newfound wealth and confidence, about its future. The country mourns its low life expectancy, and high death rates due to over-consumption of alcohol and tobacco. Its increasingly sparse northern presence is set to produce a confrontation in some near future with China, needful of increased territory for its burgeoning population.

Russia's population is on a slow and steady decline. Birth rates don't come anywhere close to bridging the gap between early deaths of the working population and a bleeding of emigration, with no counter-immigration. This is not a pretty picture.

The Kremlin understands full well that with its recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia they've opened up a hornet's nest of other tribal and religious aspirants for sovereignty. Have some respect for a wounded giant, even a burly, hairy, growling menace to its neighbours. Cornered, such creatures have a penchant for violent reaction.

Listen to the appeal for reasonableness. Echo it into the hills and valleys, and it may come back to haunt the worried aspirations of the Kremlin.

Labels: Political Realities, World Crises

posted by Pieface @ Sunday, September 14, 2008