generalspeaking

Friday, November 22, 2019

Embracing The Arctic

"[The Arctic is a region of] concentration of practically all aspects of national security -- military, political, economic, technological, environment and that of resources."
"[Shipping through the Northern Sea Route would increase from 20 million metric tonnes today to 80 million tonnes by 2035; this is] a realistic, well-calculated and concrete task ahead for Russia."
"[The new National Security Strategy explicitly aims to increase the] competitiveness and international prestige of the Russian Federation [in the Arctic]."
Russian President Vladimir Putin

People attend the float-out ceremony of the nuclear-powered icebreaker Ural at the Baltic Shipyard in St. Petersburg, Russia, (Anton Vaganov/Reuters)

"Global warming in recent years has accelerated the melting of ice and snow [posing a security threat to China and the world."
"[China is] a near Arctic State, an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs."
"[China is prepared to include Arctic states in its] Belt and Road Initiative."
White paper on China's Arctic Policy

The Chinese research vessel Xue Long surrounded by ice

The Chinese icebreaking research vessel Xue Long – or Ice Dragon – has played a key part in Chinese capacity building in the Arctic since the 1990s. Photo: dracophylla

"All that's been stated before [Issues of health, sustainable development and sovereignty over the Northwest Passage]."
"What's not being stated here is any idea of how the [Canadian] government is going to address these well-known issues."
Rob Huebert, Arctic specialist, University of Calgary

President Putin's commitment to the Arctic is obvious; by 2035 Russia plans to add four nuclear icebreakers to its Arctic fleet for a total of 13 heavy icebreakers, nine nuclear. In the Arctic, Russia is a superpower, and has been since the days of the czars. Russia has its eye on the untold wealth of natural resources, both mineral and fossil fuels known to lie on and under the seabed, and Russia is eager to take possession of its generous share of that wealth, not to mention ownership of an impressive, albeit contested share of its geography.

And then there is China which despite being nowhere near the Arctic Circle -- over 7,000 kilometres' distance in fact -- considers itself a shareholder, an 'important stakeholder' with goals to explore and deepen knowledge of the Arctic, including protection of the environment, making use of Arctic resources, and actively taking part in governance of the Arctic. China joined the Arctic Council as an 'observer' in 2013, innocent enough at the time, but with long-range future consequences.

In the Spitsbergen archipelago, China built the Arctic Yellow River Station and carried out eight scientific explorations by the end of 2017. Like Russia, China is expanding its Arctic fleet as well, planning on building a second heavy icebreaker to join its first which transited the Northwest Passage in 2017. Tenders have gone out for the construction of a nuclear icebreaker to bring China in line with elite Arctic capabilities.

And Canada? It has produced a document with input from twenty-five Indigenous organizations, the territories of Nunavut, the Northwest Territories and Yukon and the provinces of Manitoba, Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. A wide-ranging yet unfocused document addressing the issues of climate change, melting sea ice and great power interest in the Arctic; objectives that may or may not be realized, but likely not under the current government.

What is known and anticipated is that melting ice will permit for shipping use of the Arctic sea routes connecting China and Europe. An estimated 20 days' voyage would be sliced off the 48 days currently taken from Rotterdam to China via the Suez Canal. But the severe climate threat mandates that science must be focused along with technology to be developed and enhanced adaptation to counter the growth in greenhouse gases. Only possible through international co-operation.