Monday, February 02, 2026

Autocratic Regimes

"[Havana] aligns itself -- and provides support to numerous hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups and malign actors adverse to the United States [including Russia, China and Iran]."
"[The communist government provides] defense, intelligence and security assistance to adversaries in the Western Hemisphere [while violating the human rights of its citizens]."
"[Cuba] will be failing pretty soon. They got their oil from Venezuela. They're not getting that anymore."
"[I will impose tariffs on any country that] directly or indirectly provides oil to Cuba."  
U.S. President Donald J. Trump 
 
"We did not touch on the topic of Cuba [during their 40-minute telephone conversation], and in the evening then this [executive order] came out."
"The imposition of tariffs on countries that provide oil to Cuba could create a far-reaching humanitarian crisis [severely impacting the operations of hospitals, the electrical grid and the food supply]." 
"[Cuba is currently] going through a difficult moment [but Mexico cannot be put] at risk in terms of the tariffs."  
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum  
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A drone view shows the Pajaritos terminal of Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex, in Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz state. (Angel Hernandez/Reuters)
 
An executive order was signed on Thursday by U.S. President Donald Trump when he declared Cuba represented an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security for which tariffs would be imposed on all U.S. imports from any country supplying Cuba with oil. In the wake of the lightning military raid on Caracas in mid-January that took Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro into U.S. custody for trucking with drug cartels, Mr. Trump turned his attention directly on Cuba.
 
Subsequent to the raid, the Trump administration now controls Venezuela's oil exports and took the occasion to block deliveries of oil to Cuba, long reliant on its regional ally in Venezuela to supply it with petroleum. Mexico, under critical trade duress found it necessary to cancel its latest scheduled delivery for the month to Cuba, taking into account the looming renegotiation of Mexico's free-trade pact with the United States and Canada.
 
Under these constraining issues, the sobering 'sovereign decision' was made to temporarily halt Mexican oil shipments to Cuba. Earlier in the day following the Trump order appearing on the White House website, the Cuban government attempted to rally Latin American and Caribbean neighbours to its rescue. "The peace, security and stability of Our America are in danger", Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez stated in a social media post, denouncing the U.S. for imposing "peace through force".
 
In an appearance before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee the day before, Secretary of State Marco Rubio -- of Cuban descent -- was asked whether he would rule out forcing "regime change" in Cuba. "I think we would like to see that regime change", responded Mr. Rubio. "That doesn't mean that we're going to make a change, but we would love to see a change. There's no doubt about the fact that it would be of great benefit to the United States if Cuba was no longer governed by an autocratic regime"
 
Long dependent on Venezuelan supplies of oil which it trades for security and medical personnel with Venezuela under Maduro and previously Hugh Chavez, Cuba produces little oil of its own. Imports averaged 37,000 barrels daily, the bulk of which arrived from Venezuela in 2025. Cuba is now left with a mere 15 to 20 days of oil, according to the Financial Times. Island-wide blackouts are common and frequent, impacting basic human services like drinking water.
 
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Preparing dinner during a blackout in Havana on Wednesday, as Cubans from all walks of life hunker into survival mode, navigating seemingly interminable blackouts and soaring prices for food, fuel and transport as the U.S. increases pressure on the communist‑run nation. (Reuters)
 
Signing a new defence co-operation pact with Havana last fall, Moscow pledged $1 billion in investment over the next five years in efforts to retain a hemispheric foothold. Diplomatic support has emanated to Cuba by both China and Russia. The determination of the U.S. to direct oil supplies away from Cuba along with a fleet of navy and coast guard ships in the Caribbean for operations against Venezuela tasked to stop drug smuggling, the oil blockade of Cuba was next on the agenda.
 
Seven sanctioned oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude have been seized by the U.S. to date -- blockading legitimate shipments to Cuba risks global criticism of violating international law, according to maritime experts. In response to questions in the immediate aftermath of the Caracas raid, the U.S. president responded that he felt no additional actions were required against Cuba, since lacking oil from Venezuela, "Cuba looks like it's ready to fall"
 
 

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