generalspeaking

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

The Rational Kim Jong Un

"It's really a critical time of crisis on the Korean Peninsula."
"North Korea's missile technology has advanced. They can achieve longer-range now and they can launch a missile anywhere now. They can even place a nuclear warhead -- perhaps they have the technology now."
"These changes are significant and those pose serious threats, not only to East Asia."
"I don't believe Kim Jong Un is interested in actually using nuclear weapons but his ultimate goal is establishing this system of having ICBM and nuclear weapons so he could show them as deterrence."
Ryoichi Oriki, retired, former general heading Japan's self-defence forces

"It is totally unacceptable that North Korea has once again conducted such an outrageous act."
"We have to make North Korea understand that if it continues along this path, it will not have a bright future."
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Tokyo, Japan

"We cannot deny their technological advancements."
"We see the technical maturity of their technologies. They may be able now to have a smaller nuclear warhead which can be mounted on the missile."
"Based on these facts, we understand that North Korea's threat is immediate and at a grave level."
Ryusuke Wakahoi, deputy director, strategic intelligence analysis division, defence ministry, Japan

"We should take what they say quite literally. They want to be accepted as a nuclear weapons state."
"I think they believe acquiring that status will guarantee the survival of the regime."
"The attention that the Trump administration gives to the North Korea issue is, I think, positive."
"What was called the strategic patience by the previous administration of the United States virtually allowed North Korea to do whatever it likes."
Akihiko Tanaka, president, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo

North Korean Leader Vows to Complete Nuclear Weapons Program

And North Korea is doing whatever Kim Jong Un likes, and what he likes is to witness his name in shrieking block letters in news releases, relishing his reputation as a world leader in surprise events as though the world is waiting on tenterhooks for his next performance. Which, in point of fact, it is. With tenterhooks of acute anxiety, a condition which appears to give huge pleasure to Kim, along with the fact that he has gained 'respect', if only the respect of the unhinged feared.

Those commenting on Kim's exploits in gaming the United States in 'chicken' appear to have an unwarranted belief in the man's state of mind being clear and focused, that he would never be so rash as to go further than just-far-enough in a reckless effort to spur his nemesis to real action in reaction to his own violently perturbing provocations. It's the excitement of his ability to notch up the suspense and the apprehension factor just a bit now and again and wait the instant it takes for reaction to set in that impels him to the game.

People living in Hokkaido have no affection for Kim's game-playing. Instructed to take shelter they did so immediately. Japanese officials may claim they don't feel Kim would be so oblivious to the danger he places North Korea and his own skin under that he would actually aim one of those missiles at Guam but they're not taking any chances, either, that they could be accused of down-playing the danger for their Hokkaido citizens.

Inside a Japanese missile attack drill, as the North Korea threat looms Still from video

After all, with his usual hyperbolic style, hours before the rocket was sent on its Friday trajectory, the warning went out of the North's threat to sink Japan into the sea. The threat has assumed much greater potency in view of the technological advances in the North's ICBMs and atomic bombs much to the incredulity of Korea-watcher intelligence agencies. If there is any national nervousness from within the international community it certainly goes further than Japan.

The United States has been forewarned that its Pacific coastline is in Kim's crosshairs. That an ICBM capable of reaching that distance is on the horizon is without doubt, nor that a match with a nuclear warhead is steadily advancing in tempo with Kim's boastful declarations. Just as an overflight headed for Guam could go astray and hit Hokkaido, one targeting the U.S. mainland or coastal area could land instead on America's next-door neighbour, so Canada has the right of concern.

While the U.S. has the means to stop a missile at its disposal, Canada does not. A good neighbour of long standing might do the courteous thing and deflect a missile headed toward Canada but certainly not if a succession of such missiles crowded the sky and the U.S. was understandably busy using its antimissile technology to protect its own geography while simultaneously launching its own reactive missiles with perhaps a greater degree of accuracy, leaving the stray missile to hit its unintended target.

Perhaps the world should learn to relax about the inevitable. Tyrants being tyrants insistent on having their way, Kim will succeed in some measure, doubtless, and the United Nations will continue to press for 'diplomatic' overtures which over the course of decades-long efforts have made not one iota of progress with the fanatical Kim dynasty.