"Hardliners will probably seek a candidate capable of balancing their faction following recent political tensions."
"No
significant crises are anticipated until the presidential election,
which is expected to follow a similar format to previous ones."
Mohammad-Ali Abtahi, former Iranian reformist vice-president
"One
of the main culprits of yesterday's tragedy is the United States, which
... embargoed the sale of aircraft and aviation parts to Iran and does
not allow the people of Iran to enjoy good aviation facilities."
Mohammad Javad Zarif, former Iranian foreign minister
Former Iranian president speaks in 2024.Vahid Salemi/AP
The
world's major state fomenter of antisemitic violence of the decidedly
lethal variety has lost its sitting president, slated to take the place
sooner than expected of the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, 85 and said to be suffering from cancer. A man as wickedly
nasty as they come, he earned the title Butcher of Tehran, for the
death of thousands of Iranian dissenters was an integral portion of his
legacy. Broadly speaking, and judging from the wild celebrations that
have taken place in Iran over news of his death, he will not be missed.
But
what, after all, do Iranians know? In the hallowed halls of the United
Nations, the man and his theocratic-ruling colleagues have found deep
respect, elevated as authorities to tutor other countries about human
rights, women's rights and issues relating to weapons of war. The very
country, through its Revolutionary Republican Guard Corps whose al-Quds
division is responsible for training, arming and funding 'revolutionary'
Islamist groups like proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in
Yemen, as well as Gaza's Hamas terrorists lauded in the UN.
Ebrahim
Raisi did not die alone. With him in the helicopter that was several
decades old and which likely hadn't undergone routine mechanical checks,
were the state's foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and Iran's
East Azerbaijan provincial governor, along with a senior cleric from
Tabriz, a Revolutionary Guard official and three helicopter crew. In
actual fact, they, none of them will be missed anywhere, not by
Iranians, not by Israel whose most recent death-cult experiences are
credited to the dead 'authorities' as well a direct sabre-rattling
confrontation.
Iranian
authorities can indirectly point to Israel as the fount of a chain of
circumstances that led to their late, lamented cabinet members' demise;
the Zionist-entity and its sponsor, the Great Satan's imposition of
stringent sanctions linked to Iran's quest for nuclear weaponry has
struck the country's finances, and American influence and power has
persuaded those reliant upon its good graces to refrain from trade with
the proscribed nation.
Elected
in 2021 after the mercurial, threatening and leering Ahmadinejad -- who
in an address to the UN spoke of his country's mission to destroy
Israel as well as the oncoming appearance of the Hidden Mahdi whose
return to life would presage Armageddon, when faithful Shiites would
ascend to heaven to join the Prophet Mohammad in Paradise, and
non-Muslims would perish ingloriously -- on a record-low turnout
excluding reformists and veteran politicians on the election slate, he
vowed to bring Iran closer to China and Russia, and away from Western
influence.
The United Nations on Tuesday lowered its flag to half-staff outside of
its New York City headquarters to honor Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi,
who died in a helicopter crash Monday. (UNTV)
Viewed
as a protege of the ruling Khamenei, Iran's quest with its enriched
uranium program has brought it perilously close to its goal of producing
weapons-grade uranium, and ultimately the nuclear devices it envisions
will hasten its re-conquest of the Middle East, over Arab, Sunni-Muslim
majority nations leery of the Persian Shiite country's intentions. His
hand in Hamas's October 7 savage attack in southern Israel is evident --
that has led to a greater Middle East fallout where regional violence
has increased exponentially.
Shiite
militias in Iraq and Syria have taken to targeting American bases in
those countries, while Yemen's Houthis have interrupted and continue to
threaten commercial shipping in the Red Sea, and Hezbollah in Lebanon
launches daily missiles into Israel, in a restrained and deliberate
scheme to draw the IDF away from Gaza as the need to respond to
provocations from across Israel's northern border has become a critical
diversion.
Widespread,
violent protests broke out with the death in police custody of Mahsa
Amini, a young woman accused of improperly covering her head.
Repercussions from the Iranian public from the majority who fear and
detest the regime brought out large hordes of enraged protesters. The
protests were systematically and violently disrupted, the protesters
brutally beaten, imprisoned, and murdered.
Russia
has found a dependable ally in the Islamic Republic which supplies the
Russian military with armed drones used strategically in Ukraine in
Moscow's infamous 'special military operation'. Raisi had travelled in
2023 to China to meet personally with Chinese President Xi Jinping; the
three countries have formed a bond of 'understanding' and support for
one another.
And
in the United Nations, the decision was made to honour this man and his
nation by lowering the UN flag to half-mast. And, fittingly enough,
given the venue and canted purpose of the United Nations, a grave
minute-of-silence in mourning for this mass murderer whose
responsibility weighed on ensuring that his country was notable for its
support for and inciting terrorism with an especial focus on Israel,
took place at the UNGA. No shame!
Tehran– International organizations across the world observed a minute
of silence on Monday and Tuesday in honor of the tragic passing of
President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian.
The Success of Engaging and Re-Engaging the Islamic Republic of Iran
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif meet in 2016.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
"The most recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on
Iran’s nuclear program paints a bleak picture of the agency’s current
ability to monitor Tehran’s nuclear activities and the new Iranian
government’s willingness to cooperate with the agency. Newly inaugurated
Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi may think intransigence and ambiguity
over the status of Iran’s nuclear program will build leverage in
negotiations to bring Tehran and Washington back into compliance with
the 2015 nuclear deal—which would reimpose on Iran the most stringent
monitoring regime ever negotiated—but his administration’s failure to
get off on the right foot with the agency is not only jeopardizing
Tehran’s relationship with the IAEA, but also the prospects for
restoring the accord."
"IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned in the Sept. 7 report that
Iran’s failure to fully cooperate and communicate with the IAEA “is
seriously compromising” the IAEA’s ability to maintain continuity of
knowledge about Iran’s nuclear activities, which is necessary if the
agency is to resume the monitoring and verification activities required
by the 2015 nuclear deal. The agency’s confidence that it can maintain
that knowledge continuity “has now significantly further declined” and
will continue to do so “unless the situation is immediately rectified by
Iran,” the report says."
Kelsey Davenport and Julia Masterson, Arms Control Association
"Although
our stance on nuclear weapons based on the supreme leader's explicit
fatwa regarding nuclear weapons being forbidden is quite clear,
Fakhrizadeh created this system and his concern wasn't just the defence
of our own country."
Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, former head, Iranian Atomic Energy Organization
"Our demands are clear."
"Other parties and especially Americans should decide whether they want this deal to be revised or not."
"The United States should return to it and lift all sanctions."
Iranian official
Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed in an ambush near Tehran Reuters
On
the one-year anniversary of the targeted killing of Iranian chief
nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, by Israel's Mossad spy agency, in
an effort to delay the Islamic Republic's steady march to achieving the
wherewithal to build nuclear weaponry, the former head of the Iranian
Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, divulged that a
"system" was in place by Iran to develop an atomic bomb. This is the
theistic regime that time and again has expressed its end goal as the
destruction of the State of Israel.
The
State of Israel is just as determined to head off the threats posed by a
malign regime seeking to dominate the Middle East, in the process
creating a formidable grouping of like-minded states that include Syria
and Qatar, and its proxy Shiite militias, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the
Houthis in Yemen, and the Sunni Hamas terrorists governing Gaza, all
dedicated to aiding Tehran's goal of extinguishing Israel from the
Middle East.
While
Iranian officials declared time and again its intention to destroy
Israel, it also maintains itself to be innocent of plans to build
nuclear facilities for any reason other than civil purposes; a country
rich in oil, ostensibly seeking other means of energy production, such
as nuclear energy. The paradoxical anomaly of Iran shipping oil off to
China and Venezuela while itself producing nuclear energy for interior
consumption is the very image of covert subterfuge, a clumsy cover for
its nuclear ambitions.
A general view of Abadan oil refinery in southwest Iran, is pictured
from Iraqi side of Shatt al-Arab in Al-Faw south of Basra, Iraq
September 21, 2019. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File Photo
Negotiations
to restore the West's agreement with Iran over its nuclear ambitions in
the nuclear agreement are being resumed. Iranian negotiators have
stated the talks cannot resume without an agreement to remove all
sanctions. The regime is innocent of conspiring to create nuclear
weapons, they emphasize, just as has always been iterated and reiterated
time and again. Iran has been unfairly targeted with suspicion over its
nuclear programs.
Yet
although Iranian authorities assured the world it had no intention of
acquiring nuclear weapons, citing a fatwa issued by Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, that would prohibit the development of nuclear weapons because
only civilian purposes for nuclear power was envisioned by the state,
research went beyond that civilian purpose with the intention of turning
the Republic's long-term plans into a short-term reality with a
military purpose. It took a truly naive mindset to believe the regime
had no military purpose for their enrichment of uranium.
Iran's oil exports - the government's principal source of revenue - were hit by the reinstated US sanctions AFP
The
Islamic Republic News Agency aired the interview with the former
nuclear chief that effectively undermined official denials that the
Islamic Republic's nuclear research was for peaceful purposes only, and
did so just before the re-start of talks. In the close aftermath of the
original signing of the agreement that appeared on the surface to
satisfy all sides; the West that it had managed to 'contain' Iran's
future nuclear research and uranium enrichment for a year; the regime
that it had managed to hoodwink the West.
The
issue of conventional military arms was never discussed as part of the
agreement, and it took no time for Iran to develop technically advanced
ballistic missiles whose only real purpose would be to carry a nuclear
warhead. Iran's currying of terrorist groups, its interference with the
affairs of other Middle East countries, its instructions to Hezbollah to
mount terrorist attacks abroad continued, as did its involvement in
Syria's civil war.
Iran
had at first denied preparedness to meet directly with the United
States under its new hard-line president Ebrahim Raisi, accused by
Iranian expatriates and human rights groups of having been responsible
for violent human rights abuses on his own account. Former President
Donald Trump had abandoned the agreement, stating it failed to limit
Tehran's nuclear program, and he was certainly correct on that score.
Tehran never did stop enriching uranium to a point far exceeding what it
would need for peaceful civilian purposes.
It
has now stockpiled highly fissionable uranium, close to what it would
take to produce atomic bombs; its stockpile enriched to 60%, aiming for
90%, a level of enrichment that has one purpose only; the production of
nuclear weapons. It has far outpaced the agreement-allowable uranium
enrichment not to have exceeded the 3.67 agreed-upon limit reflecting
the 2015 agreement. Experts emphasize no legitimate applications exist
for the high levels of enrichment that Iran has achieved.
"Russia still has the greatest nuclear potential in the world. Nobody listened to us. Well, listen to us now." "This
low flying, difficult to spot cruise missile carrying a nuclear warhead
with a practically unlimited range and an unpredictable flight path
which can bypass lines of interception is invincible in the face of all
existing and likely future systems of both missile defence and air
defence." Russian President Vladimir V. Putin
In
this video grab provided by RU-RTR Russian television via AP television
on Thursday, a computer simulation shows the Avangard hypersonic
vehicle manoeuvring around missile defences. (RU-RTR Russian Television via Associated Press)
What's more, the world watched spellbound as Russia made its pivot to
old-style USSR tyranny when it annexed Crimea and not too long afterward
appeared in Syria to rescue another bloody tyrant from being unseated
by rebellion. Georgia's brief war theatre was also fascinating. The
Baltic nations' nervous reaction to this warming up of Cold War tactics
alongside Moscow's taunts of NATO and provocations imposed upon NATO
countries in the oceans and the skies did not elude notice. Russia has
not been invisible.
"[It
was] certainly unfortunate to have watched the video animation that
depicted a nuclear attack [by Russia with the use of one of its bravely
powerful new nuclear devices] on the United States." "[As such, this did not represent] the behaviour of a responsible international player." U.S. State Department
"We
assume a high degree of rationality in the case of Putin and we assume a
certain degree of irrationality on the part of Kim Jong Un." "[Moscow is] paying a very high price when he [Vladimir Putin] comes out on top [in prestige and self-regard]." "It's
grand theatre. It's a dual message. It is one of reassurance as well
as deterrence [Putin as philosophical warrior king]." Aurel Braun, professor of International Relations and Political Science, University of Toronto
"He will e re-elected by hook or by crook. He is unstoppable domestically because he has stopped those who might stop him." "[The
boasting of nuclear weapons' advancement is] muscle flexing [against
NATO and] is about compensating for domestic underperformance, the
economy but also delivery of public goods." Neil MacFarlane, Russian foreign policy expert, Lester B. Pearson Professor of International Relations, Oxford University
Russia's
new Sarmat intercontinental missile is shown at an undisclosed
location. President Vladimir Putin declared Thursday that Russia has
developed a range of new nuclear weapons, claiming they can't be
intercepted. (RU-RTR Russian Television via Associated Press)
Addressing a joint session of both houses of parliament gave Vladimir
Putin the opportunity to venture a vision of what Russia is capable of
producing, should she ever be pushed to that extreme: nuclear
Armageddon. Offering pride to the Russian population, and a stern
warning to the world at large that Russia will no longer tolerate being
side-lined, taken for granted, punished for striding the world stage in a
manner befitting a world power that it once was, and is prepared once
again to take on that mantle.
Only a world power equal to that of the United States would be capable
of mounting such a defence. And the stress is on defence, for although
Russian expertise has engineered these powerful, technologically
advanced weapons, it is solely for defence. Russia has never and would
never threaten the stability and sovereignty of another country. Of that
we must be assured. Putin said so. Set aside the reality of what has
been witnessed in the near as well as the distant past. Putin has given
his guarantee.
Russia is only interested in claiming what is rightfully its. Which
explains why it is that chemical attacks against civilians alongside
barrel bombs targeting Syrians by their own government is acceptable
because one does not stand aside while a collegial state is threatened.
And as far as influencing elections in other countries unfriendly to
Russia is concerned, it cannot be a crime when the United States has
always indulged to unseat those it disapproves of.
Invasions, assassinations, support for oppressors, corruption, unjust
incarceration is not only at Russia's door, for that other world power
is equally involved in all these machinations of world affairs. It's not
that Russia seeks to emulate another power it envies. After all,
provoking outrage on the world stage exemplified by North Korea's
insouciant entitlement to test ballistic missiles and nuclear devices
though small stuff in comparison to Russian entitlements, has prepared
the world to familiarize itself with crisis management.
A computer simulation shows a Russian nuclear-powered underwater drone being released by a submarine. (RU-RTR Russian Television via Associated Press)
"It's really a critical time of crisis on the Korean Peninsula." "North Korea's missile technology has advanced. They can achieve longer-range now and they can launch a missile anywhere now. They can even place a nuclear warhead -- perhaps they have the technology now." "These changes are significant and those pose serious threats, not only to East Asia." "I don't believe Kim Jong Un is interested in actually using nuclear weapons but his ultimate goal is establishing this system of having ICBM and nuclear weapons so he could show them as deterrence." Ryoichi Oriki, retired, former general heading Japan's self-defence forces
"It is totally unacceptable that North Korea has once again conducted such an outrageous act." "We have to make North Korea understand that if it continues along this path, it will not have a bright future." Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Tokyo, Japan
"We cannot deny their technological advancements." "We see the technical maturity of their technologies. They may be able now to have a smaller nuclear warhead which can be mounted on the missile." "Based on these facts, we understand that North Korea's threat is immediate and at a grave level." Ryusuke Wakahoi, deputy director, strategic intelligence analysis division, defence ministry, Japan
"We should take what they say quite literally. They want to be accepted as a nuclear weapons state." "I think they believe acquiring that status will guarantee the survival of the regime." "The attention that the Trump administration gives to the North Korea issue is, I think, positive." "What was called the strategic patience by the previous administration of the United States virtually allowed North Korea to do whatever it likes." Akihiko Tanaka, president, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo
And North Korea is doing whatever Kim Jong Un likes, and what he likes is to witness his name in shrieking block letters in news releases, relishing his reputation as a world leader in surprise events as though the world is waiting on tenterhooks for his next performance. Which, in point of fact, it is. With tenterhooks of acute anxiety, a condition which appears to give huge pleasure to Kim, along with the fact that he has gained 'respect', if only the respect of the unhinged feared.
Those commenting on Kim's exploits in gaming the United States in 'chicken' appear to have an unwarranted belief in the man's state of mind being clear and focused, that he would never be so rash as to go further than just-far-enough in a reckless effort to spur his nemesis to real action in reaction to his own violently perturbing provocations. It's the excitement of his ability to notch up the suspense and the apprehension factor just a bit now and again and wait the instant it takes for reaction to set in that impels him to the game.
People living in Hokkaido have no affection for Kim's game-playing. Instructed to take shelter they did so immediately. Japanese officials may claim they don't feel Kim would be so oblivious to the danger he places North Korea and his own skin under that he would actually aim one of those missiles at Guam but they're not taking any chances, either, that they could be accused of down-playing the danger for their Hokkaido citizens.
Inside a Japanese missile attack drill, as the North Korea threat looms Still from video
After all, with his usual hyperbolic style, hours before the rocket was sent on its Friday trajectory, the warning went out of the North's threat to sink Japan into the sea. The threat has assumed much greater potency in view of the technological advances in the North's ICBMs and atomic bombs much to the incredulity of Korea-watcher intelligence agencies. If there is any national nervousness from within the international community it certainly goes further than Japan.
The United States has been forewarned that its Pacific coastline is in Kim's crosshairs. That an ICBM capable of reaching that distance is on the horizon is without doubt, nor that a match with a nuclear warhead is steadily advancing in tempo with Kim's boastful declarations. Just as an overflight headed for Guam could go astray and hit Hokkaido, one targeting the U.S. mainland or coastal area could land instead on America's next-door neighbour, so Canada has the right of concern.
While the U.S. has the means to stop a missile at its disposal, Canada does not. A good neighbour of long standing might do the courteous thing and deflect a missile headed toward Canada but certainly not if a succession of such missiles crowded the sky and the U.S. was understandably busy using its antimissile technology to protect its own geography while simultaneously launching its own reactive missiles with perhaps a greater degree of accuracy, leaving the stray missile to hit its unintended target.
Perhaps the world should learn to relax about the inevitable. Tyrants being tyrants insistent on having their way, Kim will succeed in some measure, doubtless, and the United Nations will continue to press for 'diplomatic' overtures which over the course of decades-long efforts have made not one iota of progress with the fanatical Kim dynasty.
North Korea news: China is frustrated with Kim Jong-un’s regime after its missile tests Getty/Reuters
"The whole reason they developed the ICBM [Intercontinental Ballistic Missile] was to deter American nuclear retaliation because if you can hold an American city or cities at risk the American calculation always changes." "Are we really willing to risk Los Angeles or Chicago in retaliation for an attack on a U.S. military base in the region? Probably not." "[It's] really hard for Trump to make these crazy statements ['fire and fury'] and not have them walked back by someone in his administration." "At some point, the blurriness goes away and we just look incoherent." Vipin Narang, Associate professor, political science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, nuclear strategy specialist
North Korean news said Kim Jong-un had ordered further missile launches in the Pacific KCNA
Incredibly, there are those in the West in places of academic influence who believe Kim Jong-un to be rational, a scheming, immoderate, boasting bully, but in complete command of his personal agency and his stature as the tyrannical ruler of North Korea. That he is intelligent enough not to be suicidal in his constant gambits, his volatile fits of neuroticism, his impulsive ordering of missiles sent skyward to provoke concern in his neighbours and challenge the United States to react.
And while they persist in claiming that this dangerous and absurd prod to lunacy in the administration of a nation's fortunes knows precisely what he is doing and is quite correct in foreseeing the consequences of his actions as limply standing back, hesitating to act for fear that catastrophe will be unleashed on the nations that depend on America to protect them from the potential Kim might commit to, it is the head of the new American administration lacking sense and sensibility.
Triggers that send Kim Jong-un into spiralling fits of psychosis ordering missiles to be shot over neighbouring countries as proof that he has the means and the inclination if prodded further, are ostensibly events that the U.S. could, if it wished, control. Such as cancelling joint war games with South Korea. Or bypassing the temptation to fly U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers out of Guam too near North Korea's airspace. In essence, holding the U.S. responsible for provocative actions, not North Korea.
BBC News - North Korea: 'Japan missile was first step in Pacific operation'
The demonstration flights of the newer ballistic missiles, going from medium-range now to technologically advanced intercontinental represent the reality that Kim could, if he decided to, challenge the U.S. directly through hits on its coastal Pacific cities. Kim, claims these experts, is not paranoid, merely practical, reasoning that if he pushes the envelope just far enough he will create an atmosphere of such uncertainty revolving around his sanity and what he is prepared to do, that he will be safe because he has given his adversary due notice that nothing is beyond his capacity.
Effectively South Korea's capital, Seoul, stands in the most direct line of potential destruction. An event horrendous in theory and more so should it occur. Or Tokyo, already threatened, like Seoul and Guam, on many occasions and with controlled violence already committed as ostensible down payment on the real thing. Issues of responsibilities to allies weigh heavily on the conscience and strategies employed by the most powerful nation on Earth, rendered fairly helpless under the circumstances by the volatile antics of a juvenile mind playing with fire and brimstone.
With a believed arsenal of dozens of nuclear weapons, a cache the North grows steadily year by year, cooperating with its strategic weapons development program to the benefit of a sinister and equally threatening nation like the Islamic Republic of Iran, the game North Korea and Kim take such delight in represents a world threat to peace and stability, one that even China, in the throes of its own uncertainty, acknowledges.
"This [Kim Jong-Un's decision to postpone the threatened ballistic missiles strike toward Guam] is a direct invitation to talk reciprocal constraints on exercises and missile launches" Adam Mount, senior fellow, Centre for American Progress
"Military action on the Korean Peninsula can only be decided by the Republic of Korea and no one may decide to take military action without the consent of the Republic of Korea." "[No dialogue will proceed until the North halts its] nuclear and missile provocations." "The government, putting everything on the line, will block war by all means." South Korean President Moon Jae-In "There is no stepping back for North Korea. Those who don't know the
North very well fall into this trap every time (thinking they are easing
threats) but we've seen this before." Kim Dong-yub, professor, military expert, Kyungnam University Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Seoul
"He said that if the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous
reckless actions on the Korean Peninsula and in its vicinity, testing
the self-restraint of the DPRK, the latter will make an important
decision as it already declared." "[Kim examined the plan to] wring the windpipes of the Yankees [ but decided to wait a while longer before reaching a decision]." Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)
In this Aug. 14, 2017, photo distributed
Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2017, by the North Korean government, North Korean
leader Kim Jong Un, center, talks with military commanders during his
visit to Korean People's Army's Strategic Forces in North Korea Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP
Guam residents can take a deep breath, at least for now. As U.S. citizens they are located the closest to North Korea to identify as an instant target should Kim Jong-Un decide that the American president is continuing to be bloody-minded about behaving himself, deciding to continue threatening blameless North Korea for Trump's bad humour. The threat made a week earlier that just to remind President Trump that Kim holds a few trump cards of his own, he would shoot off three missiles within spitting distance of an American possession, has been temporarily delayed.
Until such time as the United States once again behaves stupidly, that is. And stupid behaviour, according to irascible but so reasonable Kim Jong-Un, is the scheduled military drills the U.S. is once again preparing to launch with South Korea. For the time being, the world can breathe easy. Whatever is destined to occur has been put off for now. No fireworks for the middle of this month, which has in any event, expired.
At this time, Pyongyang would be willing to accept a few overtures of assurances. After all, it had given Washington a reprieve in withdrawing its threat to Guam. And in so doing there is no necessity for the United States to respond, not in kind, but with impressive force of a nature meant to deter the North from any further stressful provocations to raise the ire of the colossus that is America. Japan and its citizens are now able to shrug and get on with life. South Koreans do, in any event.
Pyongyang is busy congratulating itself for its temperance in willingly stepping back from "extremely dangerous reckless actions"; not on its part, of course, but on the part of the United States. Nothing North Korea does is reckless or dangerous needless to say. It is satisfied with its good judgement and that it is most unfortunate that its U.S.-sycophantic neighbours suffer the debilitating effects of nervous tension; they really should do something about that. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un acknowledges a welcome from the military
officers during his visit to Korean People’s Army’s Strategic Forces in
North KoreaKorean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via APJust as the North references the U.S.-South Korean military drills scheduled to begin on Monday; clearly invasion rehearsals, it is intolerable they will proceed. Pyongyang has identified their purpose and decried their intent. In the goodness of its heart, it has volunteered to suspend all further work on its ICBMs and nuclear heads in exchange for cancellation of all such combined military drills. A sign of goodwill between the Koreas and the troublesome Americans that the North would graciously accept.
Such an agreement took place previously. It did not, unfortunately, detain North Korea from its deadly weapons enterprises. So would an agreement by the U.S. for direct talks with the North do the trick? The Trump administration has signalled that it is open to a dialogue, but that Pyongyang has as yet demonstrated no real interest in furthering direct talks. While the North remains under the impression that it is they who declared a need for direct talks, sloughed off by the Americans.
It's a language-communication thing. Each echoes the other and each has impaired hearing function. According to North Korea's state media, Kim has stated that the United States must "make a proper option first and show it through
action, as it committed provocations after introducing huge nuclear
strategic equipment into the vicinity of the peninsula" and that it
"should stop at once arrogant provocations" against North Korea. A man watches a TV screen showing a local news program reporting about
North Korean military’s plans to launch missiles into waters near Guam,
at Seoul Train Station in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2017Lee Jin-man/AP
"You see small bright radiant objects that are shedding off the
reentry vehicle — and then it suddenly begins to turn very dim." "That should not occur. Most
likely it broke up into pieces." "In short, a reasonable conclusion based on the video evidence is that
the Hwasong-14 reentry vehicle did not survive during its second test. If this assessment accurately reflects reality, North
Korea's engineers have yet to master reentry technologies and more work
remains before Kim Jong Un has an ICBM capable of striking the American
mainland." "If the bomb itself were exposed to these very severe conditions, it
would be torn apart. In short, if the reentry vehicle
breaks up, the bomb is not going to be useful — and it's not going to
detonate." "[They could still detonate the device at around 10 km altitude (or about
6.2 miles)] It would lose a lot of its
effectiveness but that's an option. But I don't think that's what they
would ultimately want their nuclear-armed missile to do." "My guess is they need to do another handful of tests [on the ICBM. Nonetheless] An early deployment next year is
possible." Michael Elleman, analyst, consulting senior fellow for missile defense, International Institute for Strategic Studies
KCNA | Reuters
Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)
Hwasong-14 is pictured during its second test-fire in this undated
picture provided by KCNA in Pyongyang on July 29, 2017.
"...The era of strategic patience is over. The president of the United States is leading a coalition of nations to bring pressure to bear until that time that North Korea will permanently abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile program." U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence "Diplomacy remains the lead. However, we have a responsibility to our allies and our nation to showcase our unwavering commitment while planning for the worst-case scenario." "If called upon, we are ready to respond with rapid, lethal, and overwhelming force at a time and place of our choosing." "[North Korea is] the most urgent threat to regional stability." General Terrence J. O'Shaughnessy, Pacific Air Forces commander
Absolutely nothing seems to give North Korea's Kim Jong-un as much unmitigated joy and pleasure as threatening his neighbours and demonstrating to the United States that geographical distance is no assurance that America will be immune to the power and might of North Korea' ambitions. Its second test of its steadily-improving intercontinental ballistic missile program took place last Friday, the second in a month. The missile sailed into the sea off Japan, eliciting the usual concerns of imminent threat.
Issuing from any other country, under any other circumstances, this provocations would be seen as a declaration of war, and consequences would be fairly swift. That is, if conventional, non-nuclear weapons were being used, not the threat of miniaturized nuclear warheads mounted on powerful missiles meant to reach beyond the shores of the North American coastline.
The Pentagon's earlier estimation that North Korea could manage a nuclear-enabled ICBM by early next year, fairly well verifies the expert opinion of Michael Elleman. The big question is, what to do at the present time, aside from carrying out the response flights of supersonic bombers over the Korean Peninsula and shooting down a missile by the THAAD missile interrupter as a responsive show of force and deterrent.
Deterrence is hopeful thinking in the case of Kim Jong-un. The Hwasong-14 ICBM represents the apple of Kim's delighted eye, one he intends to have his scientists and engineers improve upon forthwith. He doesn't flinch from the prospect of Japan, South Korea and the United States deciding to launch any kind of preemptive strike to 'persuade' him that he need go no further, and risk losing everything, along with a significant proportion of his population base, sacrificed to this delusional lunatic's vision of self as world leader.
"Threatening the world, these weapons and tests further isolate North
Korea, weaken its economy and deprive its people," "The United States will take all necessary steps to
ensure the security of the American homeland and protect our allies in
the region." U.S. President Donald J. Trump
Oblique and ambiguous that statement, said for public effect as much as for intent. For his part, Kim is far more direct, delighted at the impact his successes have on the international community; his regional protector China, stumped over what manner of influence it could possibly exert on this cult leader who will recognize no authority other than his own, willing to kick any representative of China cautioning him to rein in his ambitions out of North Korea, and live with it.
Consternation is expressed by all other countries, including Russia which still stands foursquare with China in the Security Council blocking all United Nations resolutions sanctioning North Korea even further, both opting for diplomacy with a leader who views with contempt any efforts to persuade him to surrender his ambitions and his rendezvous with destiny as a feared and acclaimed world leader of great renown and prestige.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is fascinated with the gains that The Peoples' Republic of North Korea has made, leap-frogging Iran as the world's number one nuclear concern, knowing that with their regular exchange of nuclear and ICBM scientific personnel and formulae it will benefit hugely from its collegial support of North Korea. Its own progress with ballistic missiles is owing in no small part to the progress realized by its partner in sinister design on the prevailing world order, as recently disorganized as it is.
"If you are an ordinary North Korean today, and if you don't make money through markets, you are likely to die of hunger." "It's that simple." Kim Nam-choi, 45, defector to South Korea "Thanks to the market, few North Koreans these days flee for food, as refugees in the 1990s did." "Instead, they now flee to South Korea to have a better life they learned through the markets." Reverend Kim Seung-eun, South Korean pastor
"Our attitude toward the government was this: If you can't feed us, leave us alone so we can make a living through the market." Kim Jin-hee, North Korea defector, South Korea
Ng Han Guan | AP
North Korean children carry hay on a road near Mount Kuwol in South Hwanghae province, North Korea
Government approved markets in North Korea since 2010 have risen to 440 in number and in most cities they are growing. Of the North Korean population of 24 million, an estimated 1.1-million people employ themselves as market entrepreneurs. People produce and sell shoes, clothing, sweets and breads out of their homes to sell at these markets.
Agricultural markets in rural towns are thriving. The markets host people who smuggle black-market items like Hollywood films, South Korean television dramas, smartphones operable close to the border with China.
Some form of private enterprise now engages at least 40 percent of the North Korean population, comparable to the marketplaces in Hungary and Poland once the Soviet bloc disintegrated, according to Lee Byung-ho of South Korea's intelligence service. Where once North Koreans worked for state enterprises exclusively, at farms and factories for subsistence salaries and ration coupons for food and necessities of life in state stores, that system is now disappearing.
Source: CNBC
In 2010, Joo Yang defected from North Korea, where she learned about the outside world through radio reports.
Many North Koreans working for the state barely earn a dollar a month while economists estimate the cost of living in the country to be $60 monthly. Of the majority of consumer goods available in the North Korean marketplace, China is the origin, estimates Kim Young-hee of the Korea Development Bank in South Korea. It is North Korea's Dear Leader himself who has exhorted his countrymen to produce local goods.
Market demand is now being satisfied increasingly less by Chinese-produced consumer goods and more by shoes, liquor, cigarettes, socks, sweets, cooking oil, cosmetics and needles that North Koreans themselves are producing, edging out the Chinese-origined versions. Where once state propaganda spoke of Coca-Cola as "cesspool water of capitalism", it is now sold at markets in the North.
Once collective farms meet the state quota, the excess can be sold as surplus.
But even while the country's economic and marketplace fortunes are beginning to thrive, its political stability is in question. The more marketing independence people are given, the less beholden they feel to the state to provide for them, which it rarely did adequately to begin with. All of these changes have gone hand in hand with Dear Leader and his military establishment cranking up their nuclear and missile development plans.
And since the April 6 meeting in Washington between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, things have been moving sideways for Kim Jong-un, whose major support had been courtesy of the former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin, now in conflict with the current leader. Post the meeting between Xi and Trump, the Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group was dispatched to the region and China sent 150,000 troops to the border with North Korea.
Source: NASA
Flying over East Asia in January 2014,
astronauts took this night image of the Korean peninsula. Dark North
Korea is difficult to detect, between China and South Korea.
Not, it appears, in preparation for a potential outbreak of war. Rather, in anticipation of a regime collapse. With China concerned about a possible unmanageable and destabilizing influx of North Koreans flooding across its border. To which end and to prevent asylum seekers or defectors from swamping the border, official China appears to be emergency-hiring positions linked to security on its border with North Korea.
According to the Hong Kong-based news outlet The Oriental Daily, a letter issued by Chinese authorities apprise of positions to be filled in border security, public security, trade, customs and quarantine. With an especial emphasis on recruiting Korean-Chinese interpreters for departments responsible for those areas, to be deployed close to the North Korean Border. All of which details are certainly open to interpretation.
KNS | AFP | Getty Images
Kim Jong-Un inspects the command of Korean People's Army Unit 534
"We are not seeking regime change and our preference is to resolve this problem peacefully. But we are not leaving anything off the table." "[The United States is willing ] to test that hypothesis [that Pyongyang may be willing to surrender its weapons programs] to the maximum extent we can [to achieve a peaceful resolution the current impasse]." Susan Thornton, acting top U.S. diplomat for East Asia
"It's only been a month or so and it's too early to tell. I wouldn't bet my farm on it [that talks between the U.S. and Chinese administrations may yet bear fruit in dissuading Kim Jong-Un from his current trajectory]." "In confronting the North Korean threat, it is critical that the U.S. be guided by a strong sense of resolve both publicly and privately in order to bring Kim Jong-Un to his senses, not his knees." "[The group of American war ships is in striking distance of North Korea] if the president were to call on it." Admiral Harry Harris Jr., commander, U.S. Pacific Command
This image
made from video of a still image broadcast in a news bulletin by North
Korea's KRT on Wednesday, April 26, 2017, shows what was said to be a
"Combined Fire Demonstration" held to celebrate the 85th anniversary of
the North Korean army, in Wonsan, North KoreaCredit:
KRT via AP Video
The U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee is sitting and interviewing principals in the Trump administration to attempt to get a sense of just how urgent and compromising the current belligerence of North Korea against its neighbours is at the present time; whether there is a perceived or an actual need for intervention of some nature, or whether relying on continued diplomatic and economic sanctions may yet turn the tide.
In lieu of participating in the process by appearing before the committee, it seems that the bad-boy president of the Peoples Republic of North Korea chose to test yet another ballistic missile today.
Ballistic rocket drill by Hwasong artillery units, KPA Strategic Force. KCNA, file July 21, 20116
Admiral Harris testified that in his opinion, no doubt exists that Kim Jong-Un remains intent on completing his personal mission of obtaining a nuclear-tipped missile able to strike the United States. And as long as the United States believes this to be the case, Kim will remain in American cross-hairs. At the same time, the U.S. is quite well aware of the constraints imposed upon its response to Kim's provocations through a preemptive strike, certain to elicit a suicidal response from a leadership determined to prevail, believing in its own invincibility.
Admiral Harris cautioned the committee that though it is true that American intelligence remains uncertain over how advanced the North's nuclear and missile programs are, the fact is that wherever they are on their programs' technical advancement scale, they will eventually succeed; not if, in other words, whether they will eventually be in command of the weapons that will threaten the United States' coastline and America's Korean Peninsula allies, but when. It is the 'when' that is the most worrisome element, at the moment.
Which is precisely why prevention is the key. And if prevention is the key, China is seen as the enabler of turning that key in its lock. Security Council resolutions and far tighter economic sanctions to coerce the North into an unwilling role of standing back from its weapons ambitions swerve around the fact that China represents its safeguard and support until such time as it can boast and threaten with weapons at its command. China urges caution, votes against Security Council resolutions, refuses to tighten sanctions, but its diplomatic gestures with the North fail.
An undated file
photo made available by the North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the
state news agency of North Korea, on 07 March 2017, shows four
projectiles during a ballistic rocket launching drill of Hwasong
artillery units of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army (KPA)
at an undisclosed locationCredit:
KCNA
The assurances that the United States furnishes to South Korea with the THADD interceptor program infuriates China; the U.S. missile defence system (Terminal High- Altitude Area Defence) being installed in the South is apoplexy-inducing yet it is a response to the fears expressed by South Korea in the face of ongoing threats and violent actions by the North. A strike by the powerful United States would give the North the opportunity to strike back with all the considerable means at its disposal, from high-tech weaponry to its million-strong armed forces.
East Asia U.S. diplomat Susan Thornton, in speaking before a Foundation for Defence of Democracies event, explained that the Trump administration views North Korea as its most vital threatening security challenge, leaving it seriously considering that "all options are on the table." North Korea's steadily advancing nuclear plans, alarm over Pyongyang's atomic and missile testing are all providing pressure on both the United States and China, in a proxy struggle for alignment and stability in response to a rogue outlier's threats.
North Korea has not in the least bit wavered in its search for weapons of mass destruction, despite current financial sanctions on the North by the U.S. and other countries. As for the Kim regime being threatened by within, not a faint hope. It remains a "hollow hope", said Admiral Harris to even imagine that North Koreans could rise up to topple their revered "god king". He also said that though he has enough forces to "fight tonight" should that become imminent, he lacks the number of attack submarines required.
And nor has he capable defence adequate against the thousands of artillery pieces that North Korea has mounted close to the Demilitarized Zone which separates North and South Korea.
This represents a general opinion site for its author. It also offers a space for the author to record her experiences and perceptions,both personal and public. This is rendered obvious by the content contained in the blog, but the space is here inviting me to write. And so I do.
